Lowell Returns to Friendly Fenway

November 20, 2007 @ 16:40:14

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Tim Heaney

The Boston Red Sox brought back free agent third baseman Mike Lowell as the two parties agreed to a three-year, $37.5 million contract Tuesday, Nov. 20. This undoubtedly caused the World Series champion Red Sox clubhouse to celebrate.

In 2007, Lowell experienced what many considered a career year. The 2007 World Series Most Valuable Player ended the season with career highs in batting average (.324), hits (191), triples (2), RBI (120) and OBP (.378). In addition, Lowell hit 21 home runs with 79 runs scored and an .879 OPS in 589 at-bats. He was also considered a vital clubhouse leader.

As this point, Lowell ranks as one of the top fantasy third basemen for 2008. Given his 2007 performance, he might be one of the first third basemen off the board on Draft Day, but expectations for another career year should be tempered.

Lineup Versatility

In 2007, Lowell played in 101 games and notched 391 at-bats hitting sixth behind designated hitter David Ortiz, outfielder Manny Ramirez, and various No. 5 hitters. In the sixth spot, Lowell registered a palpable .304 batting average with 119 hits, 13 home runs, 70 RBI, 44 runs scored and a nice .842 OPS.

In 67 at-bats at the fifth spot, Lowell hit .448 with four home runs, 19 RBI, 15 runs scored and a nasty 1.215 OPS in 67 at-bats. His position in the lineup is definitely something for fantasy owners to keep an eye on when Spring Training arrives because it will have a direct impact on his value and potential draft position.

Fenway Fights Aging

Another factor that could prove worrisome to fantasy owners is Lowell's sprint against age. It has been noted that baseball players hit their utmost prime around the age of 27; Lowell will turn 34 years old in February. Owners can only hope that the youthful exuberance oozing from 24-year-old Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia can be inhaled by an aging Lowell.

Lowell's eventual production decline should be held at bay as long as he's batting inside the friendly confines of Fenway Park. Over his 10-year career (which ironically started with the New York Yankees in 1998) Lowell has hit .316 with 193 hits, 40 doubles, 26 home runs, 122 RBI, 97 runs scored and a nice .887 OPS in 611 at-bats inside the hallowed halls of Fenway. 

His ability to adapt to the Green Monster has undoubtedly increased his value as Boston's guard at the hot corner and most likely has extended his formerly waning career. He eclipsed the 20-homer plateau for the second straight season, so he has proven to be reliable in that statistical category. He delivered 40 more RBI than he had in 2006; he would need one more year of equal value to prove that to be a consistent production value.

In two seasons with Boston, Lowell has enjoyed a .305 batting average with 354 hits, 84 doubles, 41 home runs and 200 RBI in 1,162 at-bats. In addition, his clutch performance down the stretch in 2007 was truly heroic. In August and September combined, Lowell has notched a .356 batting average with 77 hits, six home runs, 47 RBI and 32 runs scored in 216 at-bats.

With Lowell under contract for the next three seasons, some pundits have guessed that the Red Sox plan to shift Lowell's defensive prowess over to first base. However, with Red Sox first baseman Kevin Youkilis now a Gold Glove winner at the position, tinkering with what has already won Boston a World Series will be highly unlikely. The Red Sox do not currently boast a blue-chip prospect for third base, so Lowell does not have to worry about competition for the time being.

Conclusion

Only time will tell if this was a good signing for Boston, but for now, this looks like a bargain for a proven clubhouse presence and hitter who thrives at Fenway Park. Fantasy general managers who eventually draft Lowell should not bank on him repeating his 2007 campaign, but his surrounding lineup and home ballpark at least provide him with that opportunity. It's safe to consider Lowell a mid-round pick in larger formats and a higher-level third baseman in AL-only leagues.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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