Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC South Fantasy Outlook

November 15, 2007 @ 13:25:06

By Joe Book
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 7-10, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: He set season highs with 328 yards passing and 56 attempts but also tossed a career-worst six interceptions. The San Diego Chargers took advantage of the multiple injuries to the Indianapolis offense, and pressured Manning all night. Manning's numbers are falling toward mediocre for the season, and his three rushing touchdowns make the stats look better than they are. He's still a must-start every week because he's Peyton Manning, but you should no longer expect great games against tough defenses.
Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: The Chargers held Addai in check, allowing him only 72 total yards on 25 touches. The Colts were playing from behind almost the entire game, and passed the ball 56 times, limiting Addai's effectiveness. Week 10 marked only the second time this season that Addai didn't score, and he was stuffed on a two-point conversion attempt. The Kansas City Chiefs have an average run defense, so look for Addai to rebound with a solid performance.
Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jones-Drew turned in an excellent game, piling up 129 total yards and a rushing touchdown in a surprise win against the Tennessee Titans. The only concern with his fantasy future is that he scored only one of the four red zone touchdowns that the Jaguars had on Sunday. Running back Fred Taylor ran into the end zone from four yards out, and fullback Greg Jones scored twice from short distance. Jones-Drew is still the primary ball carrier and should continue his success against a Chargers run defense that is prone to giving up huge days to the position.
Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: Ten catches, 140 yards and a touchdown - another superstar performance. Despite quarterback Peyton Manning's struggles, Wayne found a way to make an impact on the game, and was targeted by Manning 19 times. He's a must start in all formats, and he should finish the season as a top-five wide receiver, even if fellow receiver Marvin Harrison (knee) returns to the field.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Matt Schaub	Houston Texans	2	50.0	0.00	1.00	0.0	0.00
Quinn Gray	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	152.8	1.00	1.25	6.8	0.00
David Garrard	Jacksonville Jaguars	1	72.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	3	136.3	0.33	1.33	29.3	0.33

Schaub - Schaub (concussion) is expected to be back under center this weekend against the New Orleans Saints. He hasn't played a full game since Week 6, but the Texans should have superstar wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee) in the lineup for the first time since Week 2. Although the Saints haven't stopped anyone from passing on them of late, Schaub is only a low-end No. 1 quarterback this week. If he shows he can stay healthy and Johnson remains on the field, Schaub could be a sleeper for the remainder of the season.

Gray - The Jaguars ran the ball 44 times last week, a pattern that has remained true all year. Gray was worthless from a fantasy standpoint, throwing for only 101 yards and one touchdown. He didn't turn the ball over, though and managed the clock well. Since quarterback David Garrard (ankle) is expected to return this week, and because time of possession isn't a fantasy statistic, Gray should be on your bench.

Garrard - After missing three weeks with a sprained ankle, Garrard is set to take the field against the Chargers this weekend. While that might be good news for the Jaguars, it doesn't mean much to fantasy owners. Garrard was steady, yet unspectacular when healthy, and with an inconsistent receiving corps he can't be trusted to produce against an improving Chargers defense. Garrard finds the bench this week.

Young - When 257 yards passing is your career high after 23 NFL games, you don't have much of a fantasy quarterback. Young threw 41 passes against the Jaguars and played from behind all afternoon. He also racked up 52 rushing yards but turned the ball over twice. Young isn't expected to produce big passing numbers, rather to control the game and move the ball on the ground. You can't count on him to generate anything more than last week's stats, which means he's a weak play against the Denver Broncos this week and should be on your bench.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	2	13.00 (14.18)	1.50 (19.88)	33.5	0.50	3.00	42.5	0.00
Ron Dayne	Houston Texans	3	13.33 (21.00)	1.00 (19.88)	56.3	0.33	0.67	2.7	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	16.50 (26.61)	0.50 (5.93)	55.5	0.25	0.50	0.5	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	0	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	4	25.75 (37.23)	3.75 (31.74)	87.3	0.50	1.75	9.0	0.00

Green - The extra week off should have done Green (knee) some good as he is expected to start Sunday's game against the Saints. Green hasn't carried the ball more than 16 times in a game all season and has only 116 yards rushing since Week 2. New Orleans has allowed only 88.0 yards per game to the position over the last month. Add all of that up and you get a player that is no better than a No. 3 running back with a weak play.

Dayne - It's anybody's guess as to who is riding the running back carousel in Houston. After Green left the Texans' Week 9 game against Oakland with a knee injury, Dayne ran for 122 yards and a touchdown. This was after being inactive for Weeks 6 and 7. If Green can't finish the game against the Saints, Dayne could again see a decent number of touches. Even with a weak play, use Dayne as a No. 3 option at the position this week.

Taylor - Strike up the band! Taylor finally got in the end zone last week, his first rushing touchdown since Week 14 of the 2006 regular season. Besides the score, it was an ordinary day for Taylor as he rushed for 45 yards and didn't catch a pass. Splitting carries with Maurice Jones-Drew means that Taylor has hit his ceiling for the season. Expect another 50-yard, touchdown-less game and play him only as a low-end No. 3 running back, like usual.

Brown - Brown (ankle) missed last week's loss to the Jaguars and hasn't seen the field since Week 6. However, his return coupled with running back LenDale White's (knee) injury could mean more touches for Brown. He ran for 175 yards in Week 1 and has 125 rushing yards since. Don't expect big things, even against the Denver defense, and leave Brown on your bench this week.

White - After three consecutive 100-yard games, White finished with 12 yards Sunday. He left the game twice with a knee injury, but the team expects him to practice this week and be ready to play against Denver. Since the Kansas City Chiefs were the first team not to rush for at least 105 yards against the Broncos last week, White has a good chance to produce solid numbers if he's healthy. Monitor this situation, but if White is in uniform, use him confidently as a No. 2 running back.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Kevin Walter	Houston Texans	3	10.33 (16.28)	1.00 (19.88)	5.33	69.0	0.33
Andre' Davis	Houston Texans	3	6.33 (9.98)	0.00 (0.00)	2.33	48.3	0.67
Andre Johnson	Houston Texans	0	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Marvin Harrison	Indianapolis Colts	1	5.00 (1.74)	1.00 (2.02)	3.00	16.0	0.00
Reggie Williams	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	3.75 (6.05)	0.25 (2.97)	2.00	39.5	0.25
Matt Jones	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	2.50 (2.02)	0.50 (2.97)	0.50	4.0	0.50
Roydell Williams	Tennessee Titans	4	7.00 (10.12)	2.25 (19.04)	3.25	45.0	0.00
Justin Gage	Tennessee Titans	4	5.75 (8.31)	0.75 (6.35)	4.00	45.0	0.25

Walter - With wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee) expected to return to action this weekend, Walter becomes the No. 2 receiver in the Houston offense. He put up solid numbers in Johnson's absence, but it will be interesting to see how many looks he gets in the next few weeks. Since the Saints couldn't stop my brother from throwing for 300 yards against them, Walter could have a nice day as a No. 2 fantasy receiver.

Davis - See above. Johnson's comeback pushes Davis to the slot as a No. 3 receiver. He was an all-or-nothing fantasy option while Johnson was on the shelf, and that won't change now that his spot on the depth chart has been altered. It is always a risky proposition to start a third receiver from any team, but Davis could provide fantasy value as a No. 3 wide receiver this week with a strong play.

Johnson - The long-awaited return of Johnson is finally upon us. He is expected to take the field Sunday for the first time since Week 2. When healthy, Johnson is one of the top young receivers in the NFL. He has the speed to get behind cornerbacks and the size to win jump balls and be an impact in the red zone. He immediately makes the Texans offense and your fantasy team better, especially with the matchup against the Saints. Assuming he suits up, use Johnson as a solid No. 2 option this week and hope he's 100 percent healthy.

Harrison - Indianapolis head coach Tony Dungy said that if Week 10 was a playoff game, Harrison (knee) would have played. That will drive fantasy owners crazy, as we've heard this for the last month. The status of Harrison's injury is truly unknown, and you can't count on him to produce this week, even if healthy. He won't be 100 percent and doesn't deserve a spot in your lineup until he can stay on the field for a whole game. If he doesn't play, receivers Aaron Moorehead and Craphonso Thorpe are both No. 3 receivers.

Re. Williams - Williams followed up his superb Week 9 performance by catching one pass for 13 yards last Sunday. He was only targeted three times as the Jaguars passing game was largely ineffective. Williams looks to have taken over the No. 1 position from receiver Dennis Northcutt, but with the team focusing on establishing the run, no Jacksonville wide receiver is worth starting in your league without being an injury replacement.

Jones - Jones was inactive last week, and his once promising career has hit the brakes hard. He isn't worthy of a starting spot or even a roster spot.

Ro. Williams - Quarterback Vince Young had a good day passing the ball, but Williams only hauled in four passes. He did have a touchdown called back due to penalty in the fourth quarter, but fellow receiver Justin Gage stole the spotlight. Young hasn't been consistent with who he targets, so despite the strong play against the Broncos, Williams should be on the bench this week.

Gage - Gage emerged as quarterback Vince Young's flavor of the week, catching seven passes for 90 yards and a touchdown. Young threw to Gage nine times, and the receiver responded with the best day of his career. The team wants to use Gage more, especially in the red zone. Since Young still isn't consistently producing big passing numbers, owners shouldn't get too excited with Gage yet. Despite his strong play, start Gage only as a bottom-tier No. 3 receiver.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	3	5.33 (8.40)	0.00 (0.00)	3.33	32.0	0.00
Dallas Clark	Indianapolis Colts	3	6.00 (6.28)	1.00 (6.07)	2.67	34.3	0.33
Marcedes Lewis	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	2.50 (4.03)	0.00 (0.00)	1.75	16.8	0.00
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	4	6.25 (9.04)	1.50 (12.69)	4.25	33.5	0.00

Daniels - One month ago, it looked as if Daniels would be the next superstar tight end. Fast forward to Week 11, and he's just another ordinary player at a position with few standouts. Daniels still hasn't scored a touchdown this year, and with wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee) expected to play this weekend, there could be even fewer looks for Daniels. He is only a weak No. 1 tight end this week.

Clark - Clark (concussion) didn't play in last week's loss to the Chargers, and his status for Week 11 is still uncertain. Since quarterback Peyton Manning threw 14 passes to tight ends in the game, Clark should be able to resume producing big numbers upon his return. The Chiefs have struggled stopping the tight end position, allowing 62.8 yards per game over the last month. If Clark plays, start him with a strong play. If not, both Ben Utecht and Bryan Fletcher could be used as low-end No. 1 tight ends.

Lewis - With his knee bothering him, Lewis only caught one pass last week. He hasn't been at full speed for some time now, and with the Jacksonville passing offense struggling to perform, Lewis and any other Jaguars tight end should remain on your bench.

Scaife - Scaife has quietly turned in several nice performances this year. Even though he caught only three passes last week, Scaife has been targeted 14 times in the past two games. Quarterback Vince Young seems to be exhibiting more confidence in Scaife every week, and it could result in touchdowns sooner rather than later. He could make a good sleeper play this week as a low-end No. 1 tight end.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	3	2.67	2.67	1.00	0.67	4.7
Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	4	2.50	2.50	2.00	1.25	6.2
John Carney	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	2.75	2.75	0.50	0.50	4.2
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	4	1.50	1.50	3.50	3.50	12.0

Brown - Although he has only converted two field goals since Week 6, Brown remains a top fantasy option, especially with the return of quarterback Matt Schaub (concussion) and wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee) from injury. Start Brown if you have no better options, and expect a solid, not spectacular, performance.

Vinatieri - Fantasy owners shouldn't get hung up on Vinatieri's missed 29-yard field goal near the end of the loss to the Chargers last week. What should concern them is that he has made only three of his last six kicks and has attempted only two kicks from beyond 39 yards this year, missing them both. Because of the jersey he wears, Vinatieri still belongs in the starting lineup, especially against a Chiefs team allowing more than nine kicking points per game over the last month.

Carney - With kicker Josh Scobee (leg) probable to play on Sunday, Carney's days with the Jaguars could be numbered. He made all four extra point attempts last week but went without a field goal try. The 43-year-old Carney would only stay with the team if Scobee aggravates his leg injury again. Neither player is a starter this week.

Bironas - Bironas continued to be fantasy's best kicker, making both field goal tries and an extra point. He has missed only two kicks this year and should continue his success with a strong play against the Broncos.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	3	26.0	1.00	1.0	0.67	0.3
Indianapolis Colts	4	12.2	1.75	1.8	1.00	0.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	24.5	1.50	2.2	0.50	0.5
Tennessee Titans	4	18.5	1.50	3.8	1.25	0.0

Texans - With the New Orleans offense posting big numbers lately and the Texans' inability to stop anyone, Houston deserves a spot on your bench this week.

Colts - On paper, it looked like the Colts dominated the Chargers offense, holding them to only 177 yards of total offense. The real story sits with quarterback Peyton Manning's six interceptions, never leaving the Chargers far to find a score. Kansas City's offense has struggled most of the year, so start the Colts defense as a low-end No. 1.

Jaguars - The Jaguars, who had given up 93 points in their previous three games, shut down the rushing attack of the Titans last Sunday. Tennessee only managed 19 rushing attempts, well below their season average. Despite their performance last week, the potent offense of the Chargers comes to town, meaning a bench spot for Jacksonville's defense is warranted.

Titans - Jacksonville became the first team to rush for more than 100 yards as a team against the Titans, finishing with 166 yards on 44 carries. While they took a step back from being an elite unit, they still have a strong play against an injury-laden Denver offense. Start the Titans with confidence this week, and hope they regain their form.