Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC East Fantasy Outlook

November 15, 2007 @ 13:12:39

By Christopher Watkins
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 7-10, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Brady has been Superman all season long, and there's nothing to indicate that will change against the Buffalo Bills this Sunday night. In three game appearances from Weeks 7-10, Brady is averaging an eye-popping 305 yards and four touchdown passes per game. There's never any reason to bench Brady and this week is no different. He's a weak play matchup this week, but don't let that stop you from starting him.
Running Back Marshawn Lynch, Buffalo Bills: Lynch (ankle) has not practiced this week and his status is uncertain for Sunday against New England. In the last four weeks, Lynch has averaged 0.75 touchdowns and 94.5 yards per game, but you'll need to monitor his status all week. He's a strong play this week and is a No. 1 option if he is healthy, but that is looking like a big if.
Wide Receiver Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Nobody has averaged more touchdowns per game among receivers over the last four weeks than Moss. Only teammate receiver Wes Welker and Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Terrell Owens have matched his production, at 1.33 touchdowns per game in weeks 7-10. Moss has a weak play matchup this week against Buffalo, but he's a sure fire No. 1 option to start.
Wide Receiver Wes Welker, New England Patriots: Like his teammate Moss, Welker is benefiting nicely from Brady's record-setting statistics in 2007. Along with the aforementioned 1.33 touchdowns per game the last four weeks, Welker is 10th in the league in that span with 88.3 yards per game, and third in the league with 7.67 receptions per game. He has a weak play matchup this week, but he's a strong No. 1 option.
New England Patriots, Defensive Team: The Patriots defense is quietly having a stellar year. They're probably all too happy to have their work overshadowed by the offense, and they just keep doing their thing week in and week out. The Patriots defense has surrendered only two touchdown passes in their last three games, and they have given up an average of 219.3 passing yards in that same span. Impressive numbers considering that two of those games were blowouts where their opponents were passing most of the game to catch up and the third was against Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. The Patriots are a strong No. 1 option for team defense this week.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
J.P. Losman	Buffalo Bills	3	188.3	0.67	0.67	7.3	0.00
John Beck	Miami Dolphins	-	--	--	--	--	--
Kellen Clemens	New York Jets	2	146.5	0.50	1.00	24.0	0.00

Losman - Losman was unable to throw a touchdown against the Dolphins last week, a team that had given up 15 passing touchdowns in its previous eight games. This was a golden opportunity for Losman to grab hold of the starting position over quarterback Trent Edwards, but he only responded with 157 passing yards and an interception. However, Bills head coach Dick Jauron has named Losman the starter for the Week 11 game against the Patriots. It's a weak play matchup for him this week. Put him on the bench unless you have no other options.

Beck - The team has pulled the plug on quarterback Cleo Lemon for this week and turned the reins for the offense over to the rookie Beck. He takes on a blitz happy Philadelphia Eagles defense this week, and not surprisingly Beck should be benched this week.

Clemens - After an inauspicious starting debut against the Washington Redskins in Week 9, Clemens is coming off the Bye week and right into a tough matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Seeing both mop-up and starting action in the last four weeks (appearing in two games), Clemens has thrown only one touchdown and two interceptions. The Steelers are giving up an average of only 165 passing yards per game in the last four weeks, and though they've given up seven touchdown passes in that span, Clemens is certainly a weak play this week. Bench him.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Jesse Chatman	Miami Dolphins	3	20.67 (30.53)	1.33 (23.36)	92.0	0.33	3.00	18.3	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	3	12.67 (20.30)	2.00 (13.52)	55.0	0.00	0.67	12.3	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	3	18.33 (28.30)	2.33 (31.78)	62.0	0.00	2.33	16.7	0.00

Chatman - Though he wasn't able to find the end zone, Chatman had his best game since taking over for running back Ronnie Brown (knee). He ran for 124 yards against the Bills and had five receptions for 25 yards. In the Eagles, Chatman faces a struggling run defense that has given up an average of 104.2 rushing yards per game in the last four weeks. Although the statistics appear to be on Chatman's side, the Dolphins are the Dolphins, and they generally have problems moving the ball. Chatman is a solid No. 2 this week.

Maroney - Maroney is one of the biggest fantasy disappointments of the season, but it's hardly his fault. The Patriots continue to obliterate the league, throwing the ball up and down the football field at will. It's hard to believe, but Maroney hasn't scored a single touchdown all season long despite rushing for 417 yards in an injury-limited season (he has only appeared in six games). This week, the Patriots face a hot Bills team that has only given up one rushing touchdown in the last four weeks, and an average of 90.8 yards in the same timeframe. There's no reason to believe the Patriots won't be up to their typical aerial tricks, so Maroney gets ranked as a moderate No. 3 this week.

Jones - Jones is another back who somehow hasn't found the end zone this entire season. His average rushing yardage the last four weeks is only 62 yards per game with the aforementioned zero touchdowns. With all those negative statistics already stacked against Jones owners, he's also a weak play against a Steelers defense that has given up one rushing touchdown the last four games. Jones is a low-end No. 3 option at best.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	4	8.75 (13.89)	0.50 (5.05)	5.75	116.5	0.50
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	3	7.67 (11.33)	0.67 (11.68)	2.67	25.0	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	3	4.67 (7.48)	0.33 (2.25)	3.00	45.7	0.33
Laveranues Coles	New York Jets	2	9.00 (9.26)	1.00 (9.08)	4.50	73.0	1.00
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	3	9.00 (13.89)	1.00 (13.62)	5.33	65.7	0.33

Evans - After a very slow start, Evans is on quite a roll the last four weeks. Though he stumbled a bit against the Dolphins (only four catches for 65 yards) he should get a lot of targets this week if the Bills get down early against New England. That being said, Evans is a weak play against the Patriots who are only giving up 99.3 yards per game to wide receivers the last four weeks, with zero wide receiver touchdowns allowed. Only because the Bills will probably be playing catch-up to the Patriots, Evans is a moderate No. 2 this week.

Booker - Since trading wide receiver Chris Chambers to the San Diego Chargers after Week 6, nobody has caught more passes for the Dolphins than Booker. He's caught only eight passes since the trade, which ties him with receiver Derek Hagan. However, in the four games since Chambers has been gone, Booker has been involved in 23 plays. The next highest number in that category by a Dolphins receiver is Hagan, with 14. Despite the attention the Dolphins ineptitude on offense makes him a weak play this week in Philadelphia, and he should be on the bench.

Stallworth - Brady's fondness for getting Welker the ball has hurt Stallworth, and that makes him a weak play against Buffalo this week. Welker and Moss seem to be getting all the glory and numbers from the pass-happy Patriots, but Stallworth remains an explosive threat in that offense. In the last four weeks (three games), New England wide receivers have caught nine touchdown passes, with Stallworth only able to catch one. The best thing Stallworth owners can hope for is that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick will read this, get angry, and order Brady to get Stallworth the ball twenty times this week. Stallworth is a No. 3 against the Bills.

Coles - At 1-8, the Jets don't have much to be excited about on offense. After suffering a concussion in Week 8, Coles sat out Week 9 and had a Bye last week to get back to full strength. He hasn't yet played a full game with Clemens, and he's a weak play against Pittsburgh who has only given up an average of 107 yards per game over the last four weeks to wide receivers. Those numbers are against him, but the Jets might be behind early to the Steelers. Despite the time missed, Coles managed to score two touchdowns in the last four weeks (appearing in only two games). He's a weak No. 1 or a strong No. 2 this week.

Cotchery - With Coles out of the lineup, Cotchery has done some damage for the weak Jets offense. He's hauled in 16 catches the last four weeks, but he has only been able to get in the end zone once. Similar to Coles, Cotchery might find himself on the receiving end of some garbage-time passes in Week 11. He's a weak play against the Steelers, but if you're thin at wide receiver he's worth a moderate No. 3 this Sunday.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	4	2.75 (4.37)	1.00 (10.10)	1.00	13.5	0.25
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	2	4.00 (3.94)	0.00 (0.00)	3.50	28.0	0.00
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	1	3.00 (1.60)	1.00 (2.25)	2.00	10.0	0.00
Chris Baker	New York Jets	2	4.00 (4.12)	0.50 (4.54)	2.50	26.5	0.00

Royal - Royal (concussion) suffered a mild concussion in Week 10 against the Dolphins and didn't catch a pass. The Patriots are 20th in the league during the last four weeks in giving up yardage to tight ends with 47 yards per game. However, even as the No. 1 tight end on the Bills depth chart, Royal has only managed four catches and a touchdown in that time. Reports say he should play Sunday against, but he's a weak play and should be benched.

Martin - Appearing in just two games the last four weeks, Martin hasn't had much of an impact. He has seven catches for 56 yards in that span, and he's facing a lot of competition from backup tight end Justin Peelle. Martin has also had groin issues, which held him out of the team's Week 8 contest. In what could be a very tough game for the Dolphins visiting Philadelphia, Martin is a weak play and should be benched.

Watson - Watson has been hampered by ankle problems the last four weeks, causing him to miss two games in that stretch. Before his injury Watson had scored five touchdowns this season, and now that he's recovered he should be primed to benefit from the much-feared Patriots offense. Watson is a weak play against Buffalo, but in that high-powered offense you can still pencil him in as a No. 1 tight end this week.

Baker - Coming off back issues, Baker caught four passes for 42 yards in the Jets Week 9 game against the Redskins. He has a tough assignment this week against the Steelers, who have only given up 33.8 yards per game to tight ends in the last four weeks. Baker doesn't figure to get much action, and he's a weak play this week. Bench him unless you have no other options.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	4	1.25	1.25	2.75	2.75	9.5
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	3	2.00	2.00	0.67	1.00	4.0
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	3	5.67	5.67	0.67	0.67	7.7
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	3	1.33	1.33	2.00	2.33	7.3

Lindell - Lindell made all 11 of his field goal attempts the last four weeks, averaging 9.5 points per game since Week 7. He'll be facing a Patriots defense that hasn't given up much of anything lately, much less a lot of points to kickers. New England has given up only 4.3 points per game to kickers over the last four weeks, good for eighth in the league. Still, Lindell's solid play makes him a decent No. 1 kicking option this Sunday.

Feely - In three games during Weeks 7-10, Feely only made two field goals out of three attempts. The Dolphins simply haven't been able to consistently do anything on offense. After losing Brown (knee) for the season and Chambers to a trade, they don't figure to improve anytime soon. This week they'll be in Philadelphia, and Feely is a weak play. Bench him.

Gostkowski - It's rare that an offense is so good that their kicker is hardly needed. Gostkowski has proven to be reliable, albeit in a limited capacity all season long. In the last four weeks, he's only been called upon to kick two field goals, making both of them. He's a weak play this week, but with an offense that almost always gets deep into opposing territory he remains a No. 1 play.

Nugent - Nugent's success the past four weeks is an indication of how inept the Jets offense has been. They've been continuously unable to score touchdowns in the red zone when the offense actually makes it there. As a result, Nugent has scored 7.3 points per game over the last four weeks. However, facing a Steelers defense that has allowed just 4.8 points per game to opposing kickers over the last four weeks makes Nugent a weak play. Look for another option this week and bench Nugent.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	4	10.5	0.75	1.2	0.50	0.0
Miami Dolphins	3	22.3	0.67	1.3	0.33	0.3
New York Jets	3	22.7	1.00	1.0	0.00	0.3

Bills - The Bills defense continues to improve in recent weeks. They've given up an average of only 10.5 points per game the last four weeks, which is lowest total in the league. What's that? Oh, right. They're playing the Patriots. Needless to say, they're a weak play and should be benched.

Dolphins - Just as with their offense, the Dolphins defense is a mess. They've been getting little-to-no pressure on opposing quarterbacks and have created only three turnovers in the last four weeks. Although they only gave up 13 points last week to the surging Bills, they are a weak play at Philadelphia this week and should be benched.

Jets - In Weeks 7-10, the Jets were 29th in the league with 391 net yards allowed per game. Coming off the Week 10 Bye, they will face a Pittsburgh offense that was second in the league in that same time period, scoring an average of 30.2 points per game. The Jets are a weak play against the Steelers, even at home. B-E-N-C-H! Bench! Bench! Bench!