Houston's New Center Fielder A Sleeper in 2008

November 9, 2007 @ 11:26:48

By Chris Hadorn
Edited by Ryan Dodson

The air is feeling toastier in the kitchen after the wheeling and dealing of the Hot Stove League kicked off Wednesday at the GM Meetings in Orlando. The Houston Astros dealt embattled closer Brad Lidge and utility infielder Eric Bruntlett to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for outfielder Michael Bourn, reliever Geoff Geary and third base prospect Mike Costanzo. Bourn was coveted by new Astros general manager Ed Wade, who drafted him in the fourth round of the 2003 First-Year Player Draft when he worked in the same capacity with the Phillies. He is projected to be Houston's leadoff hitter and starting center fielder on Opening Day of 2008. Manager Cecil Cooper envisions Bourn as the table-setter for the thumpers in the lineup that include super sophomore outfielder Hunter Pence, first baseman Lance Berkman and outfielder Carlos Lee. 

A burner, Bourn possesses the base-stealing skills to finish in the top five in thefts in baseball. The former Houston Cougar star was 18 of 19 on stolen base attempts last year in a reserve outfield role for the Phillies. Bourn, who turns 25 this December, led the Phillies farm system in swipes for three consecutive seasons from 2004-06. The 5-foot-11, 180-pounder was successful on 163 of 191 attempts in the minors, good for an astronomical 85 percent success rate. There's no question Bourn can wreak havoc on the base paths with the best of them, but the real question is will he hit enough to stay in the lineup? 

In terms of batting average, home runs and RBI, Bourn will likely put up numbers similar to Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre and Chicago White Sox outfielder Scott Podsednik, sub-.285 with single digit home runs and less than 50 runs driven in. Last year the "punch-and-judy" batted .277 with one home run and six RBI in 119 at-bats for the Phillies. In the minors, his career batting average was .285 and lifetime slugging percentage was .393, which don't point to eye-popping figures at the major league level. Bourn also uncharacteristically strikes out a ton for a leadoff hitter sans power. He punched out 21 times in 2007 and averaged a strikeout for every four-and-a-half at-bats in the minors.

Unlike Pierre and Podsednik, Bourn has developed a reputation for working the count and drawing his share of walks. He earned 13 free passes and registered a modest .348 on-base percentage with Philadelphia. The Houston native holds an impressive .379 on-base percentage in the minors as well. If Bourn can maintain a respectable on-base mark, the run-scoring opportunities are going to come in bunches given his baserunning prowess and the outstanding sluggers hitting behind him. The left-handed hitter scored 29 runs in Philadelphia's vaunted offense in a defensive replacement and pinch-runner role. With a full season under his belt, 100 runs is a strong possibility for him.

Due to the premium placed on stolen bases, Bourn projects as a 10th-to-11th round selection in MLB universe formats. With 127 big league at-bats under his belt, he's certainly a risky proposition because his bat is a relative unknown. He could hit .230 or .270. The batting averages of "punch-and-judy" hitters can be volatile. The pros are appealing at .270 because he has the opportunity to steal 40-to-60 bags and break the century mark in runs scored. Somebody will take the chance and bite the bullet on a speed demon that rarely gets gunned down and hits in front of a good heart of the order.

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Chris Hadorn
Chris Hadorn has covered minor league and amateur prospects for more than a decade. He writes for San Diego's North County Times and has been a KFFL fantasy baseball contributor since 2006.

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