Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 10

November 9, 2007 @ 08:28:52

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players that aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterback - Strong Play

J.P. Losman, Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Losman	2	204.0	1.00	0.50	10.5	0.00
Dolphins vs. Pos.	3	224.3	3.00	0.33	12.7	0.67

Losman will start his second consecutive game this week after leading the Bills to their third straight win in Week 9. He added a much needed spark into the passing game throwing for 295 yards and a score, while running back Marshawn Lynch added a passing touchdown of his own. He will face a Dolphins team that has struggled in defending the passing game allowing three touchdowns per game to the position over their last three games. The Dolphins will also be without starting middle linebacker Zach Thomas (migraines), who is suffering from symptoms of a concussion. Losman has a strong play matchup and should be looked at as a solid No. 1 option this week.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Kevin Jones, Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jones	3	84.0	0.67	3.00	16.3	0.00
Cardinals vs. Pos.	3	122.7	1.33	3.67	19.0	0.00

Fantasy owners that had patience with Jones are finally seeing the benefits. The Lions have made it a point of late to focus on the rushing game, and Jones has taken full advantage of the opportunities. He has carried the ball an average of 18 times over the last three weeks finding the end zone twice during that span. He faces a Cardinals defense that got run over last week by Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Earnest Graham and is giving up close to 150 yards per game to the position over the last three weeks. Jones has a strong play matchup and should be looked at as a moderate No. 1 or solid No. 2 running back option this week.

Justin Fargas, Oakland Raiders vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Fargas	4	44.0	0.25	2.25	21.5	0.00
Bears vs. Pos.	3	170.0	1.33	3.33	23.3	0.00

Fargas was officially named the starting back for this week's matchup against the Bears, leaving running back LaMont Jordan in his dust. He carried the ball 23 times for 104 yards and a score last week against the Houston Texans and faces another running back-friendly team in the Bears this week. They have allowed just about every running back to run all over them this season, and we expect that Fargas will be no different. Fargas has a strong play matchup and should be looked at as a No. 2 running back option this week.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Holt	3	6.00	75.0	0.33
Saints vs. Pos.	4	15.25	210.8	1.25

Especially with running back Steven Jackson sidelined (groin, back), Holt is the only real weapon the team has in the offense. Despite the Rams struggles on offense, and his unusually low numbers to this point, Holt is still averaging six catches for 75 yards and a score in his last three games. He faces a Saints team that hasn't been able to stop any receivers up to this point. He should be looked at as a moderate No. 1 or solid No. 2 option due to his strong play matchup.

Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Evans	3	6.33	133.7	0.67
Dolphins vs. Pos.	3	9.33	148.3	2.67

Evans has looked reborn over the last two games with quarterback J.P. Losman leading the offense. In his last two games he has back-to-back 100-yard receiving games and has caught a touchdown in each. He faces a questionable Dolphins defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone in the passing game. They are allowing close to 150 yards per game and three touchdowns to the position over the last three weeks. Evans is a solid No. 1 option due to his strong play matchup this week.

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Marshall	3	6.00	82.3	0.00
Chiefs vs. Pos.	3	13.00	199.7	1.67

Marshall was able to put up decent numbers last week despite his team getting blown out against the Lions. The Broncos offense has been spreading the wealth in the passing game leaving Marshall without a touchdown reception wince Week 4. He continues to get the looks averaging 12 per game over the last three weeks. This week's matchup is a favorable one for Marshall as the Chiefs are allowing close to 200 yards receiving and 1.67 touchdowns to the position over the last three weeks. Marshall has a strong play matchup and is a solid No. 2 option at receiver this week.

Tight End - Strong Play

Bo Scaife, Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Scaife	4	4.25	35.2	0.00
Jaguars vs. Pos.	4	5.00	77.0	0.25

Scaife looks to be a nice option this week as a one-week play against the Jaguars. He is the team's leading receiver in what is a dismal Titans' passing game to this point. The Jaguars are allowing an average of five receptions for 77 yards to the position over the last three weeks. Scaife has had success against the Jaguars in his career and has a strong play matchup. He should be looked at as a moderate No. 1 play or bye week fill-in.

Place Kicker - Strong Play

Josh Brown, Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Brown	3	3.00	2.67	2.67	2.67	10.7
49ers vs. Pos.	3	1.67	1.67	3.33	3.00	8.0

The Seahawks offense has been moving the ball and scoring points. Brown has benefited from that scoring an average of 10.7 points during the last four weeks. Only four kickers have scored more points per game to this point than Brown over that same span. This week's matchup against the 49ers is a favorable one as they are yielding an average of eight kicking points per game over the last four weeks. Brown has normally played well at home and has a strong play matchup. He should be looked at as a solid No. 1 option at kicker this week.

Team Defense - Strong Play

Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Packers Def.	3	16.3	290.0	3.7	1.00	1.00
Vikings Off.	4	23.2	356.0	2.25	0.75	0.50

The Packers defense has made a strong impression on the league this season and is no doubt a major reason why the team is 7-1. The Packers pass rush is averaging 3.75 sacks while giving up an average of just over 16 points and 290 total yards per game over the last four weeks. Minnesota could be starting their third quarterback this season and the Packers could look to benefit from that. Their only real threat is in the running game where rookie running back Adrian Peterson is lighting up the league. The Packers defense has a strong play matchup and should be considered a No. 1 starting defense this week.

Quarterback - Weak Play

Brian Griese, Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Griese	3	303.7	1.67	2.00	3.0	0.00
Raiders vs. Pos.	4	139.0	0.25	0.75	7.2	0.00

Griese has been putting up big numbers over the last couple weeks including two games where he threw for 300 yards. The team heads into this week's game after their bye to face a Raiders defense that is strong in pretty much only one area and that is shutting down the opponents passing game. Quarterbacks have done very little against the Raiders over the last month throwing for only one touchdown during that span. Griese is a No. 1 option at quarterback due to his past success, but his weak play matchup keeps him toward the bottom of the No. 1 options.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
James	3	58.7	0.67	0.00	0.0	0.00
Lions vs. Pos.	3	72.7	0.00	10.00	72.0	0.00

James and the entire Cardinals offense struggled last week. He was only able to carry the ball nine times against a tough Buccaneers defense and will face another strong defense this week. The Lions are allowing around 72 yards per game in both rushing and receiving yards to the position over the last four weeks. James weak play matchup makes him a solid No. 2 option at running back this week.

Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor, Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jones-Drew	4	63.2	0.75	2.75	30.2	0.00
Taylor	4	66.8	0.00	0.75	0.0	0.00
Titans vs. Pos.	4	57.2	0.00	6.50	40.0	0.00

The duo of Jones-Drew and Taylor hasn't been the dynamic duo that they were last season. Taylor continues to get a couple more carries than Drew, but due to his receiving ability has been utilized more overall in the Jaguars offense. They face a tough matchup this week against a Titans team that is shutting down opposing backs. They are allowing less than 100 offensive yards per game to opposing backs over the last four weeks and haven't allowed a back to score since Week 3. Jones-Drew should be consider a No. 2 running option, while Taylor is not better than a moderate No. 3 or injury replacement due to their weak play matchup.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Owens	3	7.67	114.3	1.00
Giants vs. Pos.	3	8.67	111.3	1.00

It seems odd to see Owens as a weak play matchup this week considering the past success he has had against the Giants. The Giants, however, are a different defense these days, and it is possible he may not have a big day. The Giants are giving up fewer yards per game to the position over the last three games than Owens is averaging. One bright spot for Owens owners is that the Giants are allowing an average of one touchdown to the position over the last four weeks. Owens has a weak play matchup but should be looked at as a must-start and a No. 1 option this week.

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
White	3	5.00	76.3	0.33
Panthers vs. Pos.	3	8.33	135.0	0.33

White had a big game against the Panthers earlier in the season making seven receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. The Panthers, however, have been playing extremely well against receivers of late allowing 135 yards to the position and only 0.33 touchdowns over the past four weeks. White continues to be the No. 1 option in the passing game for the Falcons and could find it difficult to have a similar game as he did earlier this season. White has a weak play matchup and should be looked at as a No. 2 option at receiver this week.

Muhsin Muhammad and Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Muhammad	3	3.00	48.7	0.67
Berrian	3	4.33	62.7	0.33
Raiders vs. Pos.	4	4.25	63.8	0.25

The passing game for the Bears doesn't key in on one receiver. Everyone, even Devin Hester, has an equal opportunity to catch the ball on a week-by-week basis. Both Muhammad and Berrian have a difficult matchup against a Raiders team that is allowing just over four receptions to the position for only 63.8 yards and 2.25 touchdowns over the last four weeks. Both receivers have a weak play matchup, and both should be considered no more than a moderate No. 2 or solid No. 3 option this week.

Tight End - Weak Play

Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears at Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Olsen	3	5.00	56.7	0.33
Raiders vs. Pos.	4	4.00	50.5	0.00

Olsen is another receiver in the Bears passing game that has an equal opportunity to get the ball. He is one of their most dynamic options in the passing game and has been seeing more opportunities over the past few weeks. This week's matchup isn't as favorable as some to this point. The Raiders have been shutting down the opponents passing game as a whole and keeping the tight end position to just four receptions and zero touchdowns over the past four weeks. Olsen has a weak play matchup but should be considered a No. 1 option at tight end.

Place Kicker - Weak Play

Adam Vinatieri, Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Vinatieri	3	2.00	1.67	3.00	3.00	8.0
Chargers vs. Pos.	3	0.67	0.33	2.67	2.67	3.7

Vinatieri continues to be a must-start every week due to the Colts offense consistently giving him chances. Over the last month (three games played) he is averaging eight points. The Chargers defense hasn't been favorable to the opponents offense in general and have been keeping the opposing kickers to just a 3.7-point-per-game average over the last four weeks. Vinatieri remains a solid option, but due to his weak play matchup, he is considered a low-tier No. 1 kicker this week.

Team Defense - Weak Play

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Redskins Def.	4	22.5	353.2	1.8	1.00	0.75
Eagles Off.	4	18.0	362.0	2.75	0.75	0.25

The Redskins defense that seemed so dominant early on has been anything but. They are giving up more points (22.5) and yardage (353.2) per game than they had been giving up earlier in the season, while both their sack and turnover numbers have declined as well. The Eagles' offense has been consistent for the most part averaging 18 points and 362 total yards per game over the last four weeks. They have struggled to score touchdowns when given the opportunity, and while they haven't turned the ball over much, they are allowing 2.8 sacks per game over that span. The Redskins should be considered a moderate No. 1 or bench play this week due to their weak play matchup.

Author Bio

Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.