Fantasy Impact: Lidge Traded to Phillies

November 9, 2007 @ 05:56:55

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Ryan Dodson

On Wednesday, Oct. 7 the National League East Champion Philadelphia Phillies acquired former Houston Astros closer Brad Lidge and infielder Eric Bruntlett in exchange for lightning-quick outfielder Michael Bourn, relief pitcher Geoff Geary and minor league third baseman Mike Costanzo.

After the dust settles on this deal, it boils down to a struggling closer for a developing stolen base threat searching for an identity in Bourn. 

The 30-year-old Lidge will be entering his seventh-year in Major League Baseball with an organization that was in dire need of a reputable closer. Due to this deal, Phillies pitcher Brett Myers will once again claim a spot in the Phillies' starting rotation. 

Lidge's best campaign as a closer was in 2005 when he appeared in 70 games and converted 42 of 46 save opportunities. He additionally posted a 4-4 record with 103 strikeouts, 23 walks, a 2.29 ERA and a spectacular 1.15 WHIP in 70 2/3 innings.

However, the two-out three-run home run conceded to St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols in the ninth inning of Game 5 in the 2005 National League Championship Series was something that raised great concern throughout the Houston organization and systematically destroyed Lidge's already rattled mental state.

In 78 appearances in 2006, Lidge was absolutely atrocious, which brought the looming fears of 2005 to fruition. The struggling righty went 1-5 with 104 strikeouts, 36 walks, a 5.28 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 75 innings. His most glaring fault was his inability to seal the deal in the ninth inning; Lidge only converted 32 of 38 save opportunities. In addition, a now worrisome decline in his strikeouts per nine innings ratio went from 13.1 in 2005 to an increasingly ominous 12.5.

In 2007, Lidge finally lost his job to Astros relief pitcher Dan Wheeler on April 9, but regained the spotlight by mid-June only to be suddenly sidelined until July 12 with a pulled oblique muscle in his left side. In addition, he had surgery to repair torn cartilage in his right knee on Oct. 1; he is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training in February.

However, on the season, Lidge did finish with a 5-3 record in 66 appearances. In addition, he converted a horrendous 19 of 27 save opportunities with 88 strikeouts, 30 walks, a 3.36 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP in 67 innings. But once again, Lidge's strikeouts per nine innings ratio went from 12.5 in 2006 to 11.8, another skeptical sign that Lidge's dominance was beginning to sink below the mound.

Over his last two seasons combined, Lidge has allowed 19 home runs, a sum that is equivalent to the total of his first four seasons collectively. Now, as Lidge begins a new career in Philadelphia, he enters a ballpark that is known to be Disneyland for hitters.

Expect Lidge to blow up somewhere along the line in 2008. With his increasing long-ball rate and significant slide in his strikeouts-per-nine innings ratio, all signs point to an already shaken closer to crash and burn in the magnifying glass that is the city of Philadelphia. I can't warn you enough, please draft with caution.

The soon-to-be 25-year-old Bourn will be the Astros' starting center fielder and possible leadoff man in 2008. Think of Bourn as a poor man's Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Juan Pierre. Bourn's ability to burn up the base paths will make him a hot commodity in rotisserie leagues and an intriguing plug and play in head-to-head formats. Plus, Bourn is a must-have in NL-only leagues.

Last season, Bourn hit .277 with one home run, six RBI, 29 runs scored and 18 stolen bases in 119 at-bats. Think of Bourn as a top-65 outfielder with the surreal ability to grow significantly if he can be a bit more patient at the plate and bring his career OBP of .340 into the .365-.375 range. His stolen base possibilities are endless if he remains healthy; it's safe to assume that he could top 50 swipes with ease. 

Entering the 2008 campaign, owners should consider Lidge a draftable closer, but not until the top 15 ninth inning stoppers are off of the board. His propensity for implosions cut deep into the minds of fantasy owners everywhere and from what his numbers indicate, will continue to ignite throughout the 2008 campaign inside the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park.

Bourn may surprise, he is filling the glaring hole left by Colorado Rockies outfielder Willy Taveras that Houston has been trying to adequately fill since his departure. Owners should strongly consider drafting Bourn in the later rounds of drafts for his guaranteed high stolen base numbers. 

All in all, the deal is a wash and only speculation can judge who came out on top. But, as we all know by now, we will never know the real truth until the 162nd game of the 2008 season has been completed.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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