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AFC South Fantasy Outlook

November 8, 2007 @ 08:56:30

By Joe Book
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 6-9, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: Manning turned an otherwise mediocre week into an above-average fantasy day with a one-yard rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter on Sunday. The Colts gave up a late lead to the New England Patriots, who held on after forcing Manning's first lost fumble of the season. He's still on pace for more than 4,000 yards passing and 28 touchdowns, but don't expect spectacular numbers against a good San Diego Chargers passing defense.
Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: With the Patriots showing attention to wide receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark, Addai ably served as a double-threat. He became the first player in Colts history to amass 100 yards rushing and receiving in the same game. As expected, he set a season high with five receptions, one going for a 73-yard touchdown. He has been a top-5 running back in any format, and looks to continue his success against a Chargers run defense that has allowed 173.7 yards per game to the position in the last month, including Minnesota Vikings rookie running back Adrian Peterson's NFL-record 296 yards last week.
Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: He was inefficient on the offensive end, combining for only 59 total yards on seven touches. Owners in most leagues were rewarded when he returned a kickoff 100 yards for a touchdown in the first quarter, salvaging a poor performance from Jones-Drew. The Jaguars were behind for most of the game, so don't be alarmed by his low number of carries. Leave Jones-Drew in your lineup, but expect him to struggle this week against the Tennessee Titans, who have emerged as the No. 1 run defense in the NFL.
Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts: The Do Not Bench List includes players based on their health. Harrison (knee) hasn't been healthy since early in the season, and there is no certainty as to when he'll be 100 percent again. He's firmly entrenched as one of the top-10 receivers in NFL history, but his fantasy value for the rest of the season is waning quickly. The Colts say that he might play this weekend against the Chargers, but we heard that song last week. Proceed with caution.
Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: The Patriots keyed in on Wayne and held him to only 62 yards receiving on five catches. That is his worst performance of the season, which speaks to the level of production that Wayne has offered every week. He's a threat to score every time he touches the ball, and quarterback Peyton Manning has clearly favored Wayne as his No. 1 target. He'll continue to produce, but could be limited again this week against a Chargers defense allowing only 137.0 yards per game to the position in the last month.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
David Garrard	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	146.5	1.00	0.00	13.0	0.00
Quinn Gray	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	127.5	0.75	1.25	3.3	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	3	90.7	0.00	1.00	14.0	0.33

Garrard - Garrard (ankle) has a chance to play this week. Even if he does, he should be benched.

Gray - With Garrard (ankle) still nursing an injury, Gray could get the start this weekend against the Titans. Gray finished with 354 yards and two touchdowns last week, but the Jaguars threw the ball almost exclusively after falling behind early. The Jaguars face a Titans defense ranked among the NFL's best, which means the best place for Gray this weekend is on your bench.

Young - It was another horrible passing week for Young, who threw for only 110 yards and tossed two interceptions last week. He ran a touchdown in from three yards in the first quarter, but his fantasy numbers were still terrible. The Titans keep winning, so the concerns voiced by head coach Jeff Fisher won't be acted on soon. Young isn't a fantasy starter in any format, even though Jacksonville has been weak against the pass of late.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	14.75 (23.83)	0.25 (2.58)	66.8	0.00	0.75	0.0	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	1	5.00 (1.71)	0.00 (0.00)	26.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	4	31.00 (42.38)	4.25 (37.55)	100.2	0.75	2.00	10.0	0.00

Taylor - You could set your watch to Taylor's performance this season, including a 54-yard, no-touchdown performance in Week 9 against the New Orleans Saints. Even though he has 27 more carries than running back Maurice Jones-Drew this year, Taylor is nine years older and has lost his explosiveness. Tennessee features the top run-stopping unit in football, but I wouldn't bet against Taylor getting his 50 yards rushing. If you are satisfied with that, then start Taylor. Otherwise, he deserves a spot on the bench.

Brown - With running back Chris J. Henry facing a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance policy, Brown (ankle) re-enters the picture as the backup to emerging star running back LenDale White. If his sprained ankle is healed, he could steal a few touches on Sunday against the Jaguars, who are particularly stingy against the run. Brown isn't a fantasy starter, but could be an excellent contributor if White suffers an injury.

White - White has become a reliable fantasy starter as he racked up his third consecutive 100-yard game last week against the Carolina Panthers. Owners should start White with confidence against Jacksonville, but with 108 carries in the last month, stamina might begin to become an issue. Remember, White had problems controlling his weight throughout his career at USC, and through the early part of his NFL career. White is a low-end No. 1 with a strong play this week, and he has several favorable matchups in the near future.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Anthony Gonzalez	Indianapolis Colts	3	1.67 (2.46)	0.33 (2.69)	0.67	9.7	0.00
Dennis Northcutt	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	5.00 (8.08)	1.00 (10.33)	2.00	20.2	0.25
Matt Jones	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	3.67 (4.44)	1.33 (10.33)	1.33	8.7	0.33
Reggie Williams	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	4.25 (6.86)	0.50 (5.17)	3.00	45.8	0.50
Roydell Williams	Tennessee Titans	4	7.25 (9.91)	1.75 (15.46)	3.50	48.2	0.00

Gonzalez - Despite the absence of wide receiver Marvin Harrison (knee), Gonzalez (thumb) was ineffective again, catching one ball for 13 yards. He dislocated his left thumb in the first quarter and is expected to miss several weeks with the injury. Even if he is healthy, Gonzalez has offered no production or promise and is a bench player at the most.

Northcutt - He caught a meaningless 15-yard touchdown pass in Jacksonville's blowout loss to the Saints, which was his only catch of the game. Considering quarterback Quinn Gray threw for 354 yards in the game, Northcutt's production was extremely disappointing. He clearly favors David Garrard under center, but it looks like one more week before he gets his wish. Northcutt is a Bye week replacement at best.

Jones - Jones hardly played Sunday against the Saints and isn't a fantasy option even in the deepest leagues. He has nine receptions this season and has fallen out of favor with the Jacksonville brass.

Re. Williams - After catching only 12 passes for the season before Week 9, Williams hauled in six catches for 128 yards, including an 80-yard touchdown in the first quarter. He was targeted eight times by quarterback Quinn Gray and caught five passes after halftime. Even if Gray makes another start, the Tennessee defense won't allow enough offense to consider Williams as anything more than a low-end No. 2 receiver.

Ro. Williams - Considering that the Titans have run the ball 118 times in the last three weeks, there aren't a lot of balls for the receivers. Quarterback Vince Young somehow leads the team to victories, despite horrendous passing statistics. Tennessee receivers have no value at this point, and that includes Williams, who is only a No. 3 or Bye week replacement receiver this week.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Dallas Clark	Indianapolis Colts	3	6.00 (8.87)	1.00 (8.08)	2.67	34.3	0.33
Marcedes Lewis	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	3.00 (4.85)	0.25 (2.58)	2.00	22.2	0.00
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	4	5.50 (7.52)	1.25 (11.04)	4.25	35.2	0.00

Clark - Since starting the season on a tear, Clark has posted two consecutive poor outings. The Patriots were able to shut down the middle of the field, and Clark was only targeted four times all afternoon. For the first time this season, fantasy owners might look for a better matchup, as the Colts face a Chargers defense allowing only 33.0 yards per game to tight ends in the last month. Clark is still a No. 1 tight end, but his stock is slipping.

Lewis - Lewis had his strongest game of the season, catching four passes for 46 yards against the Saints. He still isn't a fantasy starter, but he has emerged as the top tight end on the team. Since the Jaguars have completed 34 passes to their tight ends, Lewis could have a strong second half. Monitor his production before putting him in your lineup.

Scaife - Scaife has quietly had a good first half, capped by catching six of quarterback Vince Young's 14 completions last week. He has been targeted 37 times this year, which shows that the team is committed to getting the tight end position involved in its offense. Jacksonville has allowed 77.0 yards per game to the position over their last four contests, so start Scaife this week as a low-end No. 1 with a strong play, and you might be surprised.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	3	3.00	3.00	2.00	1.67	8.0
John Carney	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	3.00	2.75	1.00	0.75	5.0
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	4	1.50	1.50	3.25	3.25	11.2

Vinatieri - Vinatieri's only miss on three attempts was from 50 yards, but he has made only eight kicks of that distance or longer in his 12-year career. Because of the caliber of the Indianapolis offense, Vinatieri must be in your lineup. However, he has a weak play against the Chargers, who are allowing only 3.7 kicker points in the last month.

Carney - Carney again made one field goal and three extra points, and even though the Jaguars offense is improving, Carney shouldn't be in your starting lineup under any circumstances.

Bironas - His two field goals last week were from 47 and 53 yards, rewarding owners who receive distance bonuses. Bironas has established himself as the top kicker in fantasy football, and has an excellent matchup against the Jaguars, who are one of seven teams to be allowing double-digit kicking points per game in the last month.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Indianapolis Colts	3	12.7	1.67	1.7	1.00	0.00
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	25.5	1.25	1.8	0.75	0.75
Tennessee Titans	4	14.8	1.50	3.5	1.25	0.00

Colts - Head coach Tony Dungy's defensive unit did a respectable job in Week 9, becoming the first team this season to hold the Patriots under 30 points. They sacked Patriots quarterback Tom Brady twice and forced two interceptions, but didn't put much pressure on Brady to make quick throws. The San Diego Chargers have an offense that is hit-or-miss, so I'd leave the Colts defense on the bench this week in case the Chargers of 2006 show up.

Jaguars - Jacksonville's defense had a horrible day against the Saints, allowing 538 yards of offense and 34 points. They have been producing turnovers of late and could continue that trend against a sloppy Tennessee offense. Start Jacksonville this week as a strong play as the Titans have scored more than 20 points in a game only twice this year.

Titans - The surprise defense of the year crippled the Carolina offense, allowing only 191 yards of offense and registering seven sacks. Jacksonville's offense has struggled all year, and combined with Tennessee's 13 sacks, nine forced fumbles and six interceptions in the last three weeks, you have a long day for Jaguars quarterbacks. Start the Titans as a solid No. 1 defense.