Maddux's Presence on Padres Worth More than Stats

November 7, 2007 @ 08:34:03

By David Wysocki
Edited by Ryan Dodson

One of the best pitching arsenals in baseball just locked up its most valuable teacher. On Nov. 5, starting pitcher Greg Maddux reached tenure as "the Professor" was awarded a one-year deal worth $10 million to return with the San Diego Padres.

The deal comes on the heels of Maddux's best single-season performance since 2004, when he won 16 games and posted a 4.02 ERA with the Chicago Cubs. In 2007, Maddux won 14 games and posted a 4.14 ERA while holding down the No. 3 spot in the rotation of the league's best pitching staff in San Diego.

The 40-year-old Maddux was also considered a second pitching coach and belonged to the same staff that sent two young starting pitchers to the All-Star Game. Jake Peavy, 26, who won the pitching triple crown and will likely win the NL Cy Young Award, and Chris Young, 28, both credited their big years on the sagely advice of the future Hall of Famer.

But what does this move mean for Maddux and the Padres in 2008?

Maddux is not the same hurler that won four consecutive Cy Young awards from 1992-1995. He is, however, still arguably the lynch pin of the Padres rotation. In a rollercoaster year that included Young sent to the DL, Clay Hensley to Triple-A Portland, David Wells get his pink slip and made Justin Germano a mainstay in the rotation, Maddux was a rock pitching 198 innings. Also, as Maddux went, seemingly, so did the Padres. In the four months that Maddux posted an ERA under four (March/April, May, June, August), the Padres went a combined 54-44 while Maddux went 10-5. In months his ERA eclipsed the magic four, the Friars scratched to a 25-30 mark.

In 2008, the Padres, who struggled mightily at the plate and posted the 14th best on-base percentage in the league, were upset on the last day of the season in a one-game playoff with the Colorado Rockies. But the 2008 Padres pitching staff is virtually all returning and things are looking bright for another successful season for "Mad Dog".

First the Padres play their home games at PETCO Park. In 2007, Maddux was stellar at home posting an 8-5 tally and recording a 3.59 ERA. Opponents put up lower batting averages, on-base-percentages and slugging percentages when facing him at the cavernous park near the sea. Although his splits show he was not much off on the road, the 6-6 record and 4.65 road ERA show there was a difference. So if the ageless one does start showing signs of aging, his home field should prove to be a very good ally.

Table: Greg Maddux's 2007 Statistics - Home/Road Splits

Split	IP	W	L	CG	ERA	BB	SO	OpBA	OpOBP
Home	95.3	8	5	1	3.59	12	53	.280	.303
Away	102.6	6	6	0	4.65	13	51	.289	.315

Secondly, in 2007 Maddux actually finished with slightly stronger numbers in the second half. For a 40-year-old that is quite impressive. The number of innings pitched did slightly drop, but Maddux gave up significantly fewer home runs (9-to-5) and walks (18-to-7) in the second half. In fact, his best month was in August when he managed to shock with a 2.37 ERA and struck out 21 in 38 innings. He won three of four decisions during this stretch. August also saw Maddux throw more innings than in any month, and despite his rough September, this display of timeless endurance is a huge positive when forecasting next season.

Table: Greg Maddux's Statistics - First/Second Half Splits

Split	IP	W	L	ERA	BB	SO	OpBA	OpOBP	OpSlug
First	109	7	6	4.27	18	59	.283	.313	.426
Second	88.3	7	5	3.97	7	45	.287	.305	.413

A third major positive is that the San Diego bullpen, which was the best in baseball for most of last year, is still looking very strong and actually a bit younger. Fellow future Hall of Famer, closer Trevor Hoffman, had a rough last couple outings. However, following another mind-boggling season of 41 saves, a 2.98 ERA, a basement low 1.112 WHIP, and a sixth All-Star appearance, the Padres look to have a big strength here again in 2008. The return of relievers Heath Bell (2.02 ERA), Joe Thatcher (1.29), Cla Meredith (3.50) and Kevin Cameron (2.79), should be able to bail out any of the Padres starters and hold leads.

The major problems Maddux will face will almost certainly come from the side of the ball he has little control over.

The Padres were a bad hitting team in 2007, and until pieces start falling it will be hard to imagine them getting much better in 2008. They do return first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff and shortstop Khalil Greene, but really only Gonzalez should be considered a middle-of-the-order guy. Kouzmanoff is still very raw, and Greene, while coming off a career year, is a free-swinger and his inconsistency and Death Valley-low on-base-percentage of .291 really should keep him out of the ranks of other 25-plus-homer and 90-plus-RBI guys. Right fielder Brian Giles, who really found a home at the leadoff spot, is rehabbing microfracture knee surgery, and he will be out likely at the season's beginning. Center fielder Mike Cameron and rehabbing outfielder Milton Bradley will likely leave as free agents to add to the discontent.

Losing Cameron will also hurt as he is one of the better defensive center fielders in the game.

However, the Padres do have a lot of faith in Matt Antonelli, considered by most to be the best second base prospect in all of baseball. After hitting .307 with a .404 on-base-percentage and slugging 21 bombs between Single-A and Double-A, he will get a strong look on the big club. He can only be an upgrade over the Marcus Giles/Geoff Blum platoon. Outfielder Scott Hairston, who came in a mid-season deal from the Arizona Diamondbacks, also looks have a chance to start. After being dealt to the Padres, Hairston mashed eight of the most clutch home runs you will ever see. He has long been seen as a high ceiling guy that never received ample playing time. Both of these guys, however, are still large question marks and the center field question is yet to be answered. Wins take more than just good pitching.

Maddux has always been a gamer and as long as he can keep it close, he should serve himself to another solid campaign in 2008. In 2007, after all, his opponent's batting average was nearly fifty points lower when the game was close (.281 when the difference is four runs or less, compared to a .330 average when the run difference is larger).

The NL West is getting stronger and Maddux will face some improving lineups in the upcoming season. But with the combo of playing in the hitter's black hole at PETCO, his seemingly good endurance, and a strong Padres bullpen should allow him to put up numbers very similar to those of 2007. If the Padres do end up bringing in a bat or two, he may even be better. Having the convenience of two of the game's best pitching coaches on your bench with you, Darren Balsley and manager Bud Black, can only help.

Maddux has refused to collapse, and even when he gets in trouble, has found a way out of it for the past four seasons. His consistency has to be attributed to his knowledge of the art of pitching, and it's hard not to think he should produce another solid year in 2008 and help his younger colleagues on the Friars' staff to do the same.  

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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