Strategy: Assessing the Rookie Wall

November 1, 2007 @ 16:20:21

By Ryan Patterson
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Those of you that were counting on Green Bay Packers rookie running back DeShawn Wynn (neck) in Week 8 to help your fantasy team were sorely disappointed. He finished the game with one carry for one yard before suffering a nerve injury in his neck early in the second quarter. The Packers subsequently placed him on Injured Reserve to make roster room for wide receiver Koren Robinson. Wynn had about a month in the spotlight where he was used in more than 50 percent of the plays in the red zone before flaming out.

Although Wynn's situation was a result of injury, such downfalls can happen to rookies as teams in flux struggle to find their identity. This article looks to explore recent rookie "break-through" that might turn out to be more of a "flavor-of-the-month" after hitting the proverbial "Rookie Wall." There are a number of factors that could contribute to a change in utilization. Among them are the emergence of other talent on the team in the same position, changes made in other positions, injuries and upcoming schedule.

Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings

It's hard to think that Peterson could end up in this category of rookies that hit a wall, and chances are slim that he will. Peterson does have a significant running back behind him in Chester Taylor (for whatever reason, Taylor is still listed as No. 1 on the depth chart... it's safe for the Vikings to stop pretending), but the team has shown no indication that Taylor will be taking many carries away from Peterson. The only game Taylor received more carries than Peterson was in Week 6 against Chicago, and that was because Peterson already ran for 228 yards. The passing game in Minnesota is waning to a pathetic level, and that may affect Peterson's production as defenses key in on him. It should not, however, change the percent of plays Peterson is utilized, as he is really the only offensive weapon Minnesota has. Peterson has been the most utilized player for a majority of the season. Future weeks to watch out for where production might slip include Week 9 against the San Diego Chargers and Week 12 against the New York Giants. Other than that, Peterson will be running against run defenses ranked in the bottom half of the league.

Marshawn Lynch, Running Back, Buffalo Bills

Like Peterson, Lynch has the advantage of playing on a team where he is the most consistent offensive weapon. Lynch doesn't any significant talent behind him waiting to take his place or share carries. Lynch has carried the ball at least 18 times in every game this season, while all other running backs on the team have combined for only 32 carries on the year. The only way Lynch is going to lose carries this year is if he gets injured. Also like Peterson, Lynch's numbers can suffer from the lack of a passing game but, again, this doesn't mean that his utilization percentage should change any time soon. Lynch has some favorable matchups in the next couple of weeks against the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins. He hits tougher opponents in Weeks 10 through 12 when the Bills play the New England Patriots, Jacksonville Jaguars and Washington Redskins. Considering that Lynch hasn't been overutilized in any one contest this year, it is tough to imagine him running face first into the rookie wall.

Calvin Johnson, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions

Johnson began the season averaging four catches per game over the first two weeks, which was a good start for a rookie. Since then he has suffered a minor injury and has dropped to just under two catches per game. Currently, Johnson is fourth on the team in receptions (15). Working against Johnson is the fact that offensive coordinator Mike Martz loves to spread the ball around. The good news is that Johnson has been used for long pass plays; his yards-per-catch average is 18.2. In addition, although it may seem as if Johnson is being forgotten in the game plan, the truth is that his utilization percentage is higher since Week 5 (includes three games) than it was in Weeks 1-4.

Table: Johnson Utilization Percentages (2007)

Games	Play Utilization %	Red Zone %
Weeks 1–4	2.99	3.95
Weeks 5, 7–8	6.89	8.70

Johnson should definitely be in Detroit's long-term plans for success, which means as time goes on, his utilization should increase. Johnson is having more success as a down-the-field receiver, because those types of plays allow him to use his natural physical ability and less on precise route-running. As he gains more experience, while developing a rapport with quarterback Jon Kitna, he should continue to increase as an offensive target and gain ground on the other receivers. Chances are that we have not yet seen Johnson's best game of the season.

Dwayne Bowe, Wide Receiver, Kansas City Chiefs

Bowe is filling a desperate need for receiving talent in Kansas City since wide receiver Eddie Kennison (hamstring) has basically missed the entire season. Bowe is currently second on the team in receptions (29), behind tight end Tony Gonzalez (naturally). The tough thing with Kansas City is the lack of a passing game. Traditionally, Gonzalez and the running backs have had the bulk of the receptions; what's left has gone to Kennison. Something would have to give if Kennison came back, because there simply aren't enough passes to go around. Fortunately, Bowe is the future and has laid some solid ground. He looks to be the top receiver for the rest of this year. Unfortunately, the state of the passing game could hold him back; he may have already peaked in Week 8 with eight receptions for 164 yards and one touchdown. Hitting the rookie wall as a wide receiver usually comes from extenuating circumstances, much like Bowe appears to be facing, and rarely is due to more utilization than the player can handle.

James Jones, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers

Jones has found his way through some stiff receiver competition in Green Bay, holding his own among veteran receivers Donald Driver and Greg Jennings; Jones is second on the team in receptions (26). Even though Driver remains the top receiver, and quarterback Brett Favre's favorite target, while Jennings is the primary deep threat, Jones has managed to carve a significant niche in the offense. The Packers are using all the talent they have in the passing game, because the running game has been so unreliable. Jones had a setback in Week 5 when he lost two fumbles and was shut out the next week. He made up for it, however, with his first 100-yard game last Monday night. Jones should continue to get consistent attention; he's averaging 3.7 catches and 57.1 yards per game. Plus, you can expect that last week won't be his only 100-yard game of the season. Green Bay's offense has favorable matchups coming up, including the Minnesota Vikings, Carolina Panthers and Detroit Lions, all in the bottom third in pass defense.

Greg Olsen, Tight End, Chicago Bears

With all the focus in Chicago going to the quarterbacks, it's easy to overlook the fact that Olsen has become a consistent producer. Since Week 5, he has averaged 4.75 catches, 56.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Olsen was not involved early on primarily because of injury and, in part, because Rex Grossman was the starting quarterback. Since Griese has taken over, Olsen has been putting up consistent numbers. As long as the passing game can produce, Olsen should not only continue to be a target but one of the primary targets. Since Week 5, Olsen is targeted more than any other receiver or tight end and second only to running back Cedric Benson for utilization in the red zone. Fellow tight end Desmond Clark and wide receiver Muhsin Muhammad are in their professional golden years. As long as Olsen performs at a high level, they do not pose a serious threat to take attention away.

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Ryan Patterson
Ryan has been a KFFL contributor since 2004.

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