Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC South Fantasy Outlook

November 1, 2007 @ 14:40:46

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 5-8, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: Another week, another solid outing from Manning. Despite completing less than 50 percent of his passes, he still finished with 254 yards passing and two touchdowns, almost exactly his season averages. Manning isn't single-handedly carrying fantasy teams the way that Week 9 opponent New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is, but he's still among the most solid fantasy options. The New England Patriots will present new challenges for the Indianapolis offense, but Manning should be able to offer above low-level No. 1 quarterback numbers.

Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: Addai received 25 touches and running back Kenton Keith was a non-factor, leading to 108 total yards and three touchdowns for the Colts superstar. Addai has scored in five of the six games he has played this season and has emerged as an elite fantasy option. Despite the matchup this week against the undefeated New England Patriots, Addai should get involved early, and he could wind up with a season high in receptions if the Patriots focus on wide receivers Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Although he struggled with a knee injury, it was admittedly alarming to see running back Fred Taylor rack up 24 carries last week. Jones-Drew is expected to be at full speed for Week 9, but the New Orleans Saints have been surprisingly stingy against the run, allowing only 74.2 rushing yards per game to the position over the last month. He'll still split carries with Taylor, but Jones-Drew's big-play potential and goal-line presence means he has to be in your lineup.

Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts: Despite reports that he would be back to nearly full speed against the Carolina Panthers, Harrison (knee) sat out the Week 8 game. It's hard to believe he won't be ready for the "Game of the Century" against the Patriots this week, but Harrison's knee and lack of production lead to hints of hesitation by fantasy owners. Start Harrison this week, as he always comes to play in huge matchups.

Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: Even with defenses applying a double-team on Wayne, he has 16 receptions for 299 yards in the last two weeks. He is clearly the No. 1 target of Manning and can now be considered among the league's best wide receivers. As long as Manning is healthy, Wayne will continue to produce elite statistics, and at only 28 years old, he could be at the top of the position for many more years. Wayne must be in your lineup every week, regardless of matchup or opposing defensive numbers.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Matt Schaub	Houston Texans	4	163.2	0.00	1.00	3.0	0.00
Quinn Gray	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	52.0	0.33	0.67	2.3	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	3	106.3	0.00	1.33	14.7	0.00

Schaub - Before suffering a concussion last week, Schaub passed for only 77 yards and threw two interceptions to a rapidly improving San Diego Chargers defense. Backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels didn't fare much better, tossing two more interceptions and running for only six yards. It is uncertain who will start Sunday for the Texans, but either player has an extremely weak play against the Oakland Raiders, who haven't allowed a passing touchdown since Week 4.

Gray - Gray expects to be the starting quarterback for at least one more week before David Garrard (ankle) returns. Although he completed only seven passes for 100 yards last week, he committed no turnovers and guided the Jaguars to a win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Jacksonville ran the ball 44 times last week, and you should expect more of the same against the Saints. He isn't producing enough to consider him a fantasy starter at this point.

Young - Young (quadriceps) had a predictably horrible game against the Raiders, completing only six passes for 42 yards last week. He hasn't fully recovered from a quadriceps injury that is crippling his rushing statistics. It should be more of the same this week against the Panthers, who held Colts quarterback Peyton Manning to 14 completions in Week 8. Young is not a fantasy starter in any capacity this week.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	2	19.00 (13.73)	3.00 (19.62)	41.5	0.00	3.50	18.0	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	15.75 (24.90)	0.50 (4.46)	66.0	0.00	0.75	1.2	0.00
Chris J. Henry	Tennessee Titans	2	8.50 (6.17)	3.00 (15.67)	52.5	1.00	1.00	6.0	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	4	26.25 (38.11)	2.75 (28.73)	83.2	0.50	1.75	9.8	0.00

Green - For the third time in five games, Green (knee) sat out with a swollen knee. When he's healthy, he gets the touches, as evidenced by his 19.00 chances average and 3.00 plays per game in the red zone in his last two contests. Houston is off during Week 10, so it's possible that Green will rest his knee. If he plays, he has to be considered a low-end No. 2 running back. Oakland has allowed 169.3 rushing yards per game to the position over the last month, worst in the NFL. If Green is unable to suit up, running backs Ron Dayne and Adimchinobe Echemandu will likely split the carries. Both of them are solid No. 3 running backs with a strong play.

Taylor - Taking advantage of running back Maurice Jones-Drew's tender knee, Taylor logged 24 carries, the most he has had in a single game since September 2005. He wasn't productive with the added work, rushing for only 68 yards, but the team showed the confidence to lean on him extensively. Taylor still hasn't found the end zone, and probably won't, but his yardage numbers have become incredibly predictable. He is a No. 3 running back with a weak play this week against the Saints.

Henry - Henry has all but bumped running back Chris Brown from the rotation and is firmly entrenched as the No. 2 option in the Tennessee backfield. He has smelled paydirt in each of his first two games and is already stealing red zone carries from running back LenDale White. Henry has only 15 carries under his belt, so it's a little premature to mortgage the house for him, but Henry is a rising star that should be used as a No. 2 running back with a strong play this week.

White - On the surface, his 133-yard performance against the porous Raiders defense looks solid. Dig deeper to find that backup running back Chris J. Henry has been extremely impressive in a small amount of work. White isn't in danger of losing his job, but head coach Jeff Fisher might be interested in experimenting with a committee approach. This isn't good for White owners that just started to believe that he was a solid top-tier option. He should still be used as a strong No. 2 option this week, but keep an eye on the rearview mirror.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Kevin Walter	Houston Texans	4	13.00 (18.79)	1.25 (16.35)	7.50	100.2	0.25
Andre' Davis	Houston Texans	4	7.25 (10.48)	0.75 (9.81)	3.00	50.8	0.25
Anthony Gonzalez	Indianapolis Colts	3	3.33 (4.53)	0.33 (2.37)	2.67	29.0	0.00
Dennis Northcutt	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	5.75 (9.09)	1.00 (8.92)	2.75	34.8	0.25
Reggie Williams	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	3.00 (4.74)	0.50 (4.46)	2.00	16.8	0.25
Roydell Williams	Tennessee Titans	4	6.25 (9.07)	1.50 (15.67)	3.25	47.5	0.00

Walter - In spite of the fact that the Texans can't keep a quarterback healthy, Walter continues to flourish in the absence of wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee). Walter hauled in seven more passes last week and is one of only three receivers in the NFL to be averaging more than 100 yards per game in the last month. Oakland has allowed only four receptions and 57 yards per game to the position in the last month, so Walter's numbers could suffer. He's a strong No. 2 receiver this week with a weak play.

Davis - Davis disappeared last week against the Chargers, catching only one pass and leaving the game with bruised ribs. He has served the Texans as an excellent No. 2 receiver, and gives the team a fantastic deep threat. With the revolving door at quarterback and a sore midsection, Davis shouldn't be in your lineup this weekend against the league's best pass defense. Davis could be a weapon in the second half of the season, as the Texans have several favorable matchups down the stretch.

Gonzalez - He did more blocking than catching, but Gonzalez still gets credit for the start last week when Marvin Harrison (knee) found the sidelines. Gonzalez caught one pass and still isn't getting enough looks to be considered a fantasy starter. He has some value in keeper leagues, as Father Time is gaining on Harrison, but Gonzalez looks to be worthless this season.

Northcutt - He had a five-yard rush in the first half but caught no passes last week. Northcutt has fallen off the map after a decent start to the season. He's still the No. 1 option in the Jacksonville passing offense, but with quarterback Quinn Gray throwing the ball, no Jaguars receiver will produce excellent numbers. Use Northcutt as a No. 3 receiver with a strong play against a New Orleans pass defense allowing 176 yards per game to wide receivers over the last month, but don't expect a 100-yard game.

Re. Williams - Williams leads the team with three receiving touchdowns, but he's an all-or-nothing commodity. He's averaging only 16.8 receiving yards over the last four contests, and his season high is 41 yards. He still deserves a spot on fantasy rosters because he can be effective in the red zone, but shouldn't be starting any week.

Ro. Williams - Owners cringed when they learned that Vince Young was taking the quarterback job back, because Williams was beginning to show worthiness of becoming a fantasy starter. With quarterback Kerry Collins behind center, Williams caught five passes for 124 yards in Week 7. When Young returned last week, he connected with Williams one time. Tennessee will continue to run the ball excessively, so Williams should only be used as a weak No. 3 or Bye week replacement.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	4	6.75 (9.75)	1.00 (13.08)	4.25	57.5	0.00
Dallas Clark	Indianapolis Colts	3	7.33 (9.97)	1.00 (7.01)	4.33	45.7	0.67
George Wrighster	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	1.00 (1.58)	0.00 (0.00)	0.50	1.5	0.25
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	4	5.00 (7.26)	1.00 (10.45)	3.00	27.2	0.00

Daniels - Daniels suffered a high ankle sprain in the Week 8 loss to the Chargers and turned in his second consecutive sub-par performance. His fantasy numbers are declining, and he couldn't find the end zone with a map. Houston's quarterback situation hasn't helped Daniels, nor has the emergence of wide receiver Kevin Walter. If he plays, use Daniels as a low-end No. 1 tight end against the Oakland Raiders, who are softer on tight ends than wide receivers. If Daniels can't suit up, neither Jeb Putzier nor Mark Bruener are viable fantasy options.

Clark - As expected, Clark suffered against the Carolina Panthers and their excellent linebacker corps. He registered only 22 yards and didn't see the end zone all day. Quarterback Peyton Manning used wide receiver Reggie Wayne almost exclusively, which didn't help Clark's production. Week 9 presents an interesting battle, with the Patriots becoming surprisingly weak against the tight end position of late. Manning will need a release option if the Patriots secondary keys in on Wayne, so Clark could have a monster week. Play him as a No. 1 tight end with a strong play, and expect a nice rebound.

Wrighster - With six receptions this season, Wrighster shouldn't be on your roster. He hasn't been targeted in the red zone since early in the season, and he has fallen to third on the depth chart. His claim to fame this season is that he has scored more times than Texans tight end Owen Daniels, who has 35 receptions.

Scaife - He continues to be the trusted red zone weapon of choice for quarterback Vince Young, but that hasn't led to any touchdowns. Young and the Titans offense simply haven't developed a passing game worthy of using anyone associated with it. Scaife included. Add that to the fact that the Carolina Panthers have allowed only 32 yards per game in the last month to tight ends, and you have a bench player this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	4	1.50	1.50	2.25	2.25	8.2
Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	3	3.67	3.33	1.67	1.67	8.3
John Carney	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	2.75	2.50	1.25	0.75	4.8
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	4	1.50	1.50	3.50	3.25	11.2

Brown - Houston wasn't able to get Brown in position to help the team last week, and Brown made his only field goal attempt. He has converted 17 of 18 kicks this year, and remains a top option, regardless of matchup. The Raiders are allowing less than six kicking points per game in their last four contests, so don't expect more than an average game from Brown.

Vinatieri - Add a nice smattering of extra points to an average amount of field goal chances, and you have Vinatieri's 2007 season. The Colts rarely stall in the red zone, so owners will have to settle for more one-pointers than three-pointers. Vinatieri is still a top kicking option but has a weak play on Sunday against the undefeated Patriots.

Carney - With a struggling Jacksonville offense holding him back, Carney hasn't converted more than one field goal in a game since Week 3. He can't be trusted to produce and shouldn't be on your roster.

Bironas - Bironas followed up his NFL record eight-field goal week with two more in week 8. His booming leg and increasing confidence makes for a strong play this week. Bironas has earned the right to be an every-week starter and should produce excellent numbers for the remainder of the season.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	4	27.8	0.25	1.00	1.25	0.25
Indianapolis Colts	3	9.3	1.33	1.33	1.00	0.00
Jacksonville Jaguars	4	18.5	1.50	2.25	0.50	0.50
Tennessee Titans	4	14.8	1.50	2.25	1.25	0.25

Texans - Houston's defense didn't play horribly last week, allowing only 237 yards of offense to the Chargers. Their turnover numbers are low, and they rarely record a sack, but Oakland has scored only 33 points in their last three games. There are better options than Houston this week, but if your regular defense has a bye, you could do worse than to start the Texans. Look for a moderate rebound against a struggling Raiders offense.

Colts - Let's be honest; it makes no difference what the Colts have done to this point in 2007. The Patriots are in town, a team on pace for 662 points. They've scored 34 or more points in every game this year, and feature one of the most potent offenses in the history of the NFL. Despite the recent success that the Colts have had on the defensive side of the ball, they shouldn't be in your lineup this weekend.

Jaguars - Jacksonville continues to force turnovers, as they intercepted Tampa Bay quarterback Jeff Garcia three times last week. They have given up a lot of rushing yards lately, and haven't stopped the pass with any effectiveness. The Saints offense seemed to come to life in the last three weeks, averaging 27 points per game over that span. Jacksonville should be used as a low-end No. 1 defense this week, only because of their ability to create turnovers.

Titans - Tennessee's defensive unit performed brilliantly against the Raiders in Week 8, forcing four fumbles and registering five sacks. They've evolved into one of the top fantasy defenses in the NFL, and haven't allowed a team to reach 100 yards rushing in any game this year. The Panthers offense has struggled this season after quarterback Jake Delhomme (elbow) was lost to an elbow injury, so use Tennessee's defense as a solid No. 1 this week.