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AFC North Fantasy Outlook

November 1, 2007 @ 14:40:21

By Ryan Erb
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 5-8, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Confidence is waning in the Queen City of Ohio, Cincinnati, as Palmer and the Bengals have dropped five of their last six games and eight of their last 10 dating back to last season. Palmer, aside from a six-touchdown explosion against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2, has thrown only six touchdowns in the last five contests. In Week 8 against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Palmer was solid yet unspectacular by posting 205 yards on 23 completions with one touchdown. Palmer had just one completion over 20 yards and like the rest of the Bengals' offense has been hesitant during crunch time. He faces a decent Buffalo Bills' secondary in Week 9 and while Palmer remains a top-tier quarterback, he is a weak play against the Bills.
Running Back Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers: Last week against the weak Bengals' defense, Parker ran for 126 yards and one touchdown on 22 carries. It was his fifth 100-yard rushing day of the season and a good confidence booster heading into Pittsburgh's Week 9 clash against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens have yet to allow an opposing running back to reach the century mark in 2007. Parker ripped off several long runs last week against the Bengals, but against a faster and more disciplined Baltimore defense there may be fewer holes to exploit. He is a No. 1 running back for most but should be considered a weak play against the Ravens.
Wide Receiver Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: His mouth and off-field shenanigans with the media have temporarily been quieted, which is due in part to Johnson having not reached the end zone since Week 2 at Cleveland. Johnson has a good history against the Bills, with his most recent performance being one of nine catches, 117 yards and one touchdown back in 2005. His ability to explode at a moment's notice makes Johnson an enticing fantasy option, but his role has changed in 2007, and he is a weak play next week against the Bills as a No. 2 or No. 3 wide receiver.
Wide Receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals: The silent assassin to Cincinnati's more enigmatic wide receiver always has been Houshmandzadeh, only this year his "statistical" mouth has been bigger than Johnson's. Houshmandzadeh has scored in all seven of Cincinnati's games this year and ranks in a tie for second in the NFL with nine touchdowns. He is a weak play this week at Buffalo as a No. 1 wide receiver, but with one career game of 14 catches against the Bills he is far from being a poor option.
Wide Receiver Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns: Edwards had another impressive performance last week making eight receptions for 117 yards and two touchdowns against. Edwards has now caught five touchdowns through the last two games with four of them coming with the Browns in the red zone. He faces a Seattle Seahawks team that has allowed over 11 receptions and over 141 yards to the position over the last four weeks. Edwards is a highly rated receiver in our rankings this week and should be considered a solid No. 1 option at receiver.
Tight End Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: Heap (ankle) has missed two of the last three games and even with the Bye week remains questionable on the Ravens' roster. If it turns out that Heap is active for Baltimore's games at the Steelers, he is an automatic option as a No. 1 tight end.
Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: Winslow had one of his most ineffective performances this season pulling in only two receptions for 26 yards. He did manage to haul in a touchdown and get close to his average of nine fantasy points per game. The Seahawks are allowing just over 38 yards to the position per game but have allowed two touchdowns to the position over the last four weeks (three games played). Winslow has a strong play matchup and is a solid No. 1 option.
Baltimore Ravens Defensive/Special Teams: Over the last four weeks the Ravens have played three games, winning two of them while holding their opponents to less than 10 points in the two victories and less than 275 total yards in all three contests. The Ravens enter their Week 9 matchup against the Steelers as a strong play, as they should with eight turnovers and nine sacks combined over their last three games.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Kyle Boller	Baltimore Ravens	2	187.5	0.50	0.50	6.5	0.00
Steve McNair	Baltimore Ravens	1	214.0	0.00	0.00	10.0	0.00
Derek Anderson	Cleveland Browns	3	260.0	2.67	1.00	6.3	0.33
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	242.0	2.33	1.00	10.0	0.00

Boller - Boller has handled the signal-calling duties for the Ravens admirably over the last two games, throwing for one touchdown while limiting his mistakes to only one interception and one fumble. However, with McNair (groin and back) expected to return for Week 9, Boller should have a firm seat on your bench if not your league's waiver wire. That is, if he even had found his way on to your roster in the first place.

McNair - After missing the Ravens' last two games and using the Bye to heal up his damaged groin and back, McNair may return to the huddle in Week 9 for Baltimore's bash against the Steelers. In his last appearance against the Steelers, McNair completed 21 of his 31 pass attempts for 256 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions. His statistics this year are less compelling for fantasy with only two touchdowns in four games, and with a difficult matchup for his return to the lineup, McNair should be benched in Week 9.

Anderson - Anderson continued his impressive play leading the Browns from an early 14-0 deficit to win back-to-back games for the first time in four years. He threw for 248 yards and three touchdowns while not throwing an interception for the second consecutive game. Anderson will face a Seahawks team that is allowing only one touchdown pass per game to the position over the last four weeks. They are also averaging just over three sacks and one turnover to the position over that same span. Anderson is second only to quarterback Tom Brady in average fantasy points from the position and is a solid No. 1 option this week.

Roethlisberger - One of the amazing qualities of fantasy football is the strength of name value and how it affects owners' opinions of their players. Roethlisberger has 15 touchdowns to six interceptions in seven games this season, which puts him fourth overall in the NFL in touchdown passes. Directly behind Roethlisberger on the touchdown list is Cincinnati's Palmer with 14 touchdowns and nine interceptions, yet it is Palmer that remains the "must start" in fantasy circles. While Palmer's probability of a huge day is greater than that of Roethlisberger, the Steelers' quarterback has thrown a score in every game this season and four times recorded two or more scores through the air. Roethlisberger faces a difficult test next week against the Ravens, making him a weak play as a No. 1 fantasy quarterback for Week 9.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Willis McGahee	Baltimore Ravens	3	27.67 (36.53)	3.67 (40.76)	87.7	0.67	4.33	19.3	0.00
Rudi Johnson	Cincinnati Bengals	1	4.00 (2.29)	0.00 (0.00)	8.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Kenny Watson	Cincinnati Bengals	3	26.00 (44.59)	6.33 (56.01)	95.3	1.00	3.67	22.3	0.00
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	2	9.50 (10.89)	1.00 (6.44)	36.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Najeh Davenport	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	7.33 (12.49)	1.33 (12.40)	29.0	0.67	1.33	12.7	0.00

McGahee - Prior to the Bye week, McGahee had his best day as a member of the Ravens at Buffalo with 114 yards and one score on 19 carries. It was his second 100-yard rushing day of the season and marked the second straight game he found pay dirt with a touchdown. Much like his own team's defense, his opponent in Week 9 has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher in 2007, and they not allowed a rushing score since Week 4. With only one career game under his pads against the Steelers, McGahee managed two touchdowns as a member of the Bills. The Steelers' defense is good enough to make McGahee a weak play option in Week 9 as a No. 1 running back.

Johnson - The value and overall worth of Johnson (hamstring) hinges on his ability to practice at this point for the Bengals, let alone playing in a game. For all intents and purposes, Johnson has not played in the last four games aside from a brief four carries during a Week 6 loss against the Kansas City Chiefs. As long as Johnson's hamstring keeps him out of practice for the Bengals he should remain firmly seated on your bench.

Watson - Watson (concussion) has enjoyed the last three weeks in Johnson's absence, rushing for 95.3 yards per game and scoring three touchdowns. The Bengals are committed to the running game and have let Watson rush the ball 50 times the last two games for 218 yards. Watson has become an instant fantasy sensation with Johnson out of commission, and he is a solid No. 1 option against the Bills this Sunday.

Lewis - Lewis returned to action after not having played since Week 5 to carry the ball 17 times for 61 yards. Fellow running backs Jerome Harrison and Jason Wright carried the ball nine times between them, making it clear that Lewis is healthy and ready to carry a full load. Lewis has a favorable matchup this week against the Seahawks who are allowing 110 yards and close to a touchdown per game to the position over the last four weeks (three games played). Lewis should be considered a solid No. 3 option at running back this week.

Davenport - With two scores on seven carries in Week 5 against the Seattle Seahawks, whispers of Davenport reprising the role retired running back Jerome Bettis for the Steelers began to make their way through fantasy circles. However, Davenport has carried the ball just 10 times in the last two weeks and is involved in only 1.33 red zone plays per game. If Parker is not carrying the rock at the goal line it is more likely that Roethlisberger will be looking towards one of his receivers rather than handing off to Davenport, thus deeming him a Bye week replacement or bench option in Week 9.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Mark Clayton	Baltimore Ravens	3	6.33 (8.36)	0.67 (7.41)	3.00	25.7	0.00
Derrick Mason	Baltimore Ravens	3	11.00 (14.52)	1.00 (11.12)	7.67	80.7	0.33
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	3	4.67 (8.02)	0.67 (6.44)	3.00	40.3	0.00
Hines Ward	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	10.50 (11.92)	1.50 (9.30)	7.50	83.0	1.00
Santonio Holmes	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	8.50 (9.65)	0.50 (3.10)	6.00	70.5	0.50

Clayton - Three receptions per game in his last three games and only 25.7 yards per game make it hard to get excited about Clayton. Clayton has eight catches in his last two games for 72 yards, but likely will see his numbers slump if McNair returns to action as McNair found Clayton for just 10 completions in their previous four games together. Clayton is a bench player for Week 9.

Mason - Next to Heap, who may not even play in Week 9, Mason represents the only member of the Ravens' passing offense that deserves weekly consideration in fantasy football. Mason has been utilized in 14.52 percent of Baltimore's plays over the last four weeks and is averaging 7.67 receptions and 80.7 yards per-game in his last three contests. He has yet to catch fewer than five receptions in a game this season and is tied for second in the NFL with 56 receptions. Mason is a weak play next week as a No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver, though it should be mentioned that he has never scored against the Steelers in 10 career games.

Jurevicius - After seemingly becoming in after thought in the Browns offense, Jurevicius was finally a prime target in the offense. He racked up five receptions for 76 yards, more than totaling his yardage output for his last three games played. Although his performance was encouraging, his inability to be a focal figure in the offense delegates that he remain on the bench for this week's matchup.

Ward - Like any crafty veteran would, Ward carved up the young and inexperienced Bengals' secondary last week for his best game of the season with eight receptions for 88 yards and two touchdowns. The signature Ward smile was shining all day against the Bengals, and it may be again against the Ravens as the aerial attack may be an integral factor in the Steelers having a chance at victory. A defensive struggle is an imminent possibility in next week's clash against the Ravens, thus making Ward a weak play as a No. 1 wide receiver.

Holmes - The speedier complement to Ward on the opposite side is Holmes, who in his last two games has averaged 6.0 receptions and 70.5 yards per game. Last year, Holmes caught eight balls for 121 yards in his first two career games against the vaunted Ravens' defense, failing to record a score. Due to the poor matchup against the Ravens, Holmes is a weak play in Week 9 as a No. 2 or No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Reggie Kelly	Cincinnati Bengals	3	2.00 (3.43)	0.33 (2.95)	1.33	16.7	0.00
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	4.33 (7.38)	1.33 (12.40)	3.67	45.3	1.00

Kelly - Kelly is a tremendous run blocker and excellent special teams' player, however, none of these qualities do squat for his ability to catch the ball or his fantasy value. In the last three games, Kelly has been utilized twice per game and is averaging just 16.7 receiving yards. He has little to no fantasy value at this time.

Miller - Unlike their division rival, Pittsburgh went out and drafted a solid tight end in Miller and is now being rewarded for it. Miller has three touchdowns in the last four games and is averaging 45.3 yards per game in the last three games on just 3.67 receptions. He only had two catches against the Bengals for 42 yards last week, but in two games last year against the Ravens had six receptions for 47 yards and one touchdown. A favorite of Roethlisberger's around the goal line, Miller is a decent play this week as a No. 1 tight end.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pts/G
Matt Stover	Baltimore Ravens	3	1.00	1.00	2.67	2.67	9.0
Shayne Graham	Cincinnati Bengals	3	2.67	2.67	1.67	1.67	7.7
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	3	1.67	1.67	3.33	3.33	8.3
Jeff Reed	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	3.33	3.33	0.33	0.67	4.3

Stover - The field goals have been plentiful over the last four weeks for Stover who has successfully connected on all eight attempts. Only three times this year has Stover recorded double-digit points, which, along with facing a staunch Pittsburgh defense, is why he is a weak play as a solid No. 1 option this week at kicker.

Graham - Anytime a kicker plays in Buffalo, weather is generally a factor. Add into the equation the fact that the Bills have allowed only five field goals in the last three games and Graham quickly earns a weak play status for Week 9. Graham has yet to score double figures in 2007 and with only five field goals in the last three games should not be counted on for any more points than his current average of 7.7 points per game. He is a weak No. 1 or bench candidate for Week 9.

Dawson - Dawson had two field goals in two attempts and made all three extra points last week in St. Louis. The Seahawks have been one of the stingiest defenses when it comes to allowing points to the kicker, allowing just over four points to the position over the last four weeks. Dawson has a weak play matchup, but he continues to benefit from a Browns offense that is hitting on all cylinders. He is a solid No. 1 kicking option this week.

Reed - For similar reasons to Stover, Reed also is a weak play this week, but so much so that he should be considered more for your bench instead. Reed has just two field goal attempts in his last four games and is facing a Baltimore defense that has let opposing kickers boot only seven field goals in the last three games.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Cincinnati Bengals	3	27.3	0.67	2.7	1.00	0.3
Cleveland Browns	3	26.3	1.00	1.0	0.00	0.0
Pittsburgh Steelers	3	12.7	1.00	1.7	0.33	0.0

Bengals - The Bengals' defense is allowing 27.3 points per game in its last three games and has done little to stop opponents' passing or running games. The 2005 version of the Cincinnati defense that was known for its aggressiveness is long gone as this year's unit has done little on the side of turnovers, recording only eight interceptions in seven games. Buffalo ranks 27th in the NFL in total offense, gaining only 272.7 net yards per game over the past month, but rookie running back Marshawn Lynch has ran well against the league's better rushing defenses and should have a much easier time finding space against Cincinnati. As long as opponents continue to score points at their current rate, the Bengals' defense should be benched for Week 9 and all weeks going forward.

Browns - The Browns defense hasn't utilized the home field to their advantage up this point allowing an average of just over 30 points per game at Cleveland Browns Stadium. They have also been ineffective in creating turnovers and getting to the quarterback averaging one turnover and one sack over the last four weeks (three games played). They face a Seahawks team that is getting healthier at the skill positions and have plenty of weapons to turn this one into a shootout. The Browns defense should be benched this week.

Steelers - The opposite of the Bengals' defense is Pittsburgh's defense, which is allowing nearly two touchdowns less per game at a 12.7 point-per-game clip. The Steelers are averaging one interception per game in the last three contests and get to face a Baltimore offense that has committed an average of one turnover per game in its last three. Despite facing a Ravens' offense that has scored less than 20 points in two of its last three games, the Steelers are a weak play and should be benched for Week 9.