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AFC West Fantasy Outlook

November 1, 2007 @ 14:40:47

By Ken Jager
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 5-8, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Travis Henry, Denver Broncos: Henry (ribs) was inactive for Week 8's Monday night game, leaving several fantasy owners in tears. The Broncos travel to face the Detroit Lions this week, which would normally be a strong play for Henry against the Lions run defense, but monitor his injury status leading up to the game. If he can't go, running back Selvin Young should get the start again.
Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson supplied a large portion of the Kansas City offense in Week 7 with 112 yards rushing and a score, plus six catches for 21 yards. Heading into the team's Bye week last week, Johnson has 231 yards rushing, 45 yards receiving and two rushing touchdowns over his past two games. He faces a Green Bay Packers run defense that has given up just 88 rushing yards per game during the last three games, so it's hard to expect the same lightning from Johnson this week. But as the Chiefs top offensive weapon, he still rates as a lower tier No. 1 option.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: Tomlinson had a "slow day" in San Diego's 35-10 blowout win over the Houston Texans in Week 8. He collected 90 yards on 17 carries (5.3 yards per rush) but no scores. All 35 of the team's points came in the first half via three passing touchdowns and two defensive/special teams touchdowns, the team didn't press in the second half. Week 9 has him facing a stout Minnesota Vikings run defense, but chances are Tomlinson will find a way to be productive. He is a strong play as your No. 1 back.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates caught just three passes in the Chargers runaway victory in Week 8, but those went for 92 yards and two touchdowns. He represented the bulk of the Chargers pass offense as quarterback Philip Rivers completed only seven passes for 130 yards in the game. His Week 9 opponent, Minnesota, has been particularly soft against the tight end position, meaning another big day for Gates could be in store as a strong No. 1 play.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez is looking for more production after the Bye week than he got in Week 7. It was a slow offensive day, and he caught four passes for 66 yards with no touchdowns. He's in line to collect on his wish this week against Green Bay. The Packers are the worst in the league versus the tight end position in recent weeks, giving up 92.3 yards and 1.33 touchdowns per game in their last three games. Gonzalez remains a strong play as a No. 1 tight end.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	3	248.0	1.33	1.00	18.3	0.00
Damon Huard	Kansas City Chiefs	3	212.3	0.67	0.67	-1.0	0.00
Daunte Culpepper	Oakland Raiders	3	208.0	0.67	1.33	2.7	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	3	185.3	1.67	0.33	1.0	0.33

Cutler - Cutler had a solid outing in Week 8, going 21-for-34 for 264 yards and a touchdown. Plus, for the first time all season, he didn't throw an interception. The Lions, his Week 9 opponent, don't offer much resistance to the passing game and Cutler is a strong play as a No. 1 or bench option.

Huard - Huard did not have a good outing in Week 7, completing 16 of 31 passes for only 177 yards and an interception. The Bye week should have helped him regroup and prepare for an average Green Bay pass defense in Week 9. The scenario means that Huard is a strong play as a low-tier No. 1 or bench option. But given his track record, don't rely on Huard to give you big time production.

Culpepper - Culpepper's poorest outing of the season dragged Oakland down in their 13-9 loss versus the Tennessee Titans in Week 8. He went 15 of 31 for 167 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. He also fumbled four times, losing one. If Culpepper doesn't get on track, it's likely only a matter of time before he relinquishes his starting role to quarterback Josh McCown. This week Culpepper should remain on your bench as a weak play.

Rivers - Rivers didn't have to do much, but he did more than enough in the Chargers convincing Week 8 victory over Houston. He completed just seven passes for 130 yards, but three of those completions went for touchdowns. With the game decided by halftime, Rivers didn't have the opportunity for even more production. With the San Diego offense rolling, Rivers is a strong play as a No. 1 option against the Vikings' league-worst pass defense.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
LaMont Jordan	Oakland Raiders	3	17.00 (27.33)	1.33 (30.63)	29.0	0.00	3.33	28.7	0.00
Dominic Rhodes	Oakland Raiders	3	3.67 (5.89)	0.00 (0.00)	7.0	0.00	0.33	3.3	0.00
Justin Fargas	Oakland Raiders	3	7.67 (12.32)	0.33 (7.66)	24.0	0.00	2.33	23.7	0.00

Jordan - Even facing the one of the league's toughest run defenses, you'd expect a back like Jordan to muster more than 1.3 yards per carry. Jordan amassed just 16 yards on 12 carries as he couldn't get anything going all game, ceding half of his carries to Fargas. Jordan continues to be a risky play since suffering a back injury in Week 4, but he faces a soft Texans run defense this week and is a strong play as a No. 2 or No. 3 option.

Rhodes - Rhodes did not receive a carry or a catch in Week 9 and was relegated to part-time kick return duty. After seeing significant time in Week 7, this is a discouraging, and somewhat surprising, development for those relying on Rhodes to be a fantasy backup option. It appears the team is not ready to keep him as Jordan's backup, as Fargas held that role last week. Rhodes' situation is too volatile to rely on him as a fantasy option right now, so keep him on the bench.

Fargas - Fargas assumed the duty as Jordan's backup in Week 8 and was more productive than Jordan, rushing for 61 yards on 12 carries and collecting three passes for 36 yards. It has also been reported that Fargas would see an increase in his carries in the coming weeks. Since Jordan is still entrenched as the starter, he should be benched this Sunday. But he could see significant action if Jordan continues to falter.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Brandon Marshall	Denver Broncos	3	10.67 (18.52)	0.33 (4.02)	5.33	74.3	0.00
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	3	6.33 (9.95)	0.67 (6.23)	3.67	66.7	0.00
Ronald Curry	Oakland Raiders	3	8.00 (12.86)	0.67 (15.32)	4.33	54.3	0.33
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	3	6.00 (9.64)	0.00 (0.00)	2.67	44.3	0.00
Vincent Jackson	San Diego Chargers	3	3.00 (6.46)	0.67 (9.52)	1.33	29.7	0.33
Chris Chambers	San Diego Chargers	1	5.00 (3.59)	1.00 (4.76)	2.00	35.0	1.00

Marshall - With Cutler looking for more options outside of Marshall, including wide receiver Brandon Stokley, Marshall is not getting the attention he once was earlier in the season. In fact, Stokley was targeted nine times to Marshall's eight, and Marshall was only able to catch three of those passes for 74 yards. Denver faces Detroit in Week 9, so that means Marshall will likely split looks with Stokley against a solid Detroit pass defense. Consider him a weak play as a No. 2 or No. 3 option this week.

Bowe - Bowe's numbers as a rookie, 499 yards and three touchdowns, are impressive. But he could easily have even higher numbers if he was in an offense with a better passing attack. He has emerged as the Chiefs top wide receiver, yet he continues to have games like he did in Week 8, three receptions for 84 yards and no touchdowns. He faces Green Bay's strong cornerbacks this week and is a weak play as no better than a No. 3 option.

Curry - Curry hasn't been able to post solid fantasy numbers since Culpepper took control of the offense, and Week 8 was no different with three catches for 45 yards. Until Culpepper gets replaced as the starter, don't expect much out of Curry despite his big game potential. He is a weak play as a No. 3 or Bye week replacement option versus Houston this week.

Porter - Porter is suffering the same downfall as Curry, unable to muster a big game with Culpepper at the helm. Week 8 saw Porter collecting his season-high of four receptions for 46 yards. Porter is a weak play versus Houston this week, and his best spot for your lineup is your bench though he can be used to cover a Bye.

Jackson - Jackson was targeted once and did not have a reception in Week 8. Without an extensive passing offense in the game, Jackson suffered, but perhaps the bigger factor to his non-production is the arrival of Chambers. Jackson is now the No. 2 wideout of this offense, so a zero day may not be common, but his already limited fantasy value had dropped to a season low and isn't expected to climb. He could serve as a low-end No. 3 or Bye week replacement this week, however, because he is a strong play against a soft Minnesota defense.

Chambers - Chambers had a successful debut with the Chargers in Week 8, scoring a touchdown on two receptions for 35 yards. In fact, it was his first touchdown in nearly a year. He was also the only wide receiver in the offense to collect a pass during the game. Chambers appears ready to serve as the top receiver in this offense, and he is a strong play as a No. 3 option this week against the Vikings.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Daniel Graham	Denver Broncos	3	3.00 (5.21)	0.33 (4.02)	1.67	13.0	0.00
Tony Scheffler	Denver Broncos	3	5.00 (8.68)	0.67 (8.05)	3.33	38.3	0.67
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	3	5.33 (8.57)	0.67 (15.32)	3.00	28.0	0.33

Graham - With his teammate, Scheffler, emerging as the go-to tight end target, Graham saw more opportunities in Week 8 to help split the defense's attention. He was targeted six times but caught just two of those attempts for 20 yards. This only confirms that Graham remains of little value to fantasy owners as a producing tight end. He is a weak play for your bench this week.

Scheffler - Scheffler appears to have overcome a slow start to the season and is becoming what the Broncos need, a receiving tight end to complement Graham's blocking abilities. He caught three passes for 28 yards and scored a touchdown for the second straight week. If he is still available in your league and you need an upgrade at tight end, you should look to pick him up. He is a strong play this week versus Detroit as a No. 1 option.

Miller - Despite his improved play during the last few weeks, Miller was only able to collect two passes for 19 yards last week. But that was mainly due to the offense's inability to move the ball. During its last four games, Houston is giving up 50.8 yards and 0.75 touchdowns per game to tight ends, so Miller's value spikes a bit in Week 9. He is a strong play as a low No. 1 or a Bye week replacement.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	3	1.67	1.67	1.33	1.33	5.7
Dave Rayner	Kansas City Chiefs	3	1.33	1.33	2.00	1.33	5.3
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	3	1.00	1.00	1.33	1.33	5.0
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	3	4.67	4.67	1.00	0.67	6.7

Elam - Elam did again what he's made a habit of all season, kick a last-second field goal to win or, in this case, tie the game. He chipped in a 21-yarder as time expired, only to watch Green Bay win on the first play in overtime. Elam finished the game hitting both his field goal attempts with an extra point. For Week 9, there are certainly better options at kicker as Elam faces Detroit. Leave him on the bench.

Rayner - In Week 7, Rayner connected on both his field goal attempts in the first half, but he missed a 30-yarder in the third quarter that could have cost Kansas City the game. Until Rayner and the Kansas City offense shows any spark, leave Rayner on the bench.

Janikowski - Janikowski accounted for all of Oakland's points in Week 8, connecting on three long field goals including two from 50-plus yards. Oakland couldn't move the ball all game, which gave Janikowski his long opportunities, but until Oakland can come up with an offense that consistently produces, it's hard to give Janikowski a lot of value. Sit him down as a weak play versus Houston this week.

Kaeding - The San Diego offense rolled over Houston in Week 8, scoring five touchdowns in the first half. Kaeding hit all five of those extra point tries, but he didn't get any other chances. San Diego faces another defense with some issues in Minnesota this week, and Kaeding should get opportunities. But if it's another cakewalk for this offense, he could have a similar output. Kaeding is a strong play as a Bye week replacement, but you might want to look elsewhere for a more solid option.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	3	27.3	0.67	1.7	0.33	0.3
Kansas City Chiefs	3	15.7	1.00	3.3	0.67	0.0
Oakland Raiders	3	17.7	0.67	1.3	0.00	0.3
San Diego Chargers	3	7.0	2.33	2.3	1.33	1.0

Broncos - The Broncos defense gave a spirited effort Monday night versus Green Bay, but couldn't hold on for the win, giving up a long touchdown pass in the first play of overtime and a total of 19 points for the game. The defense allowed two 100-yard receivers (Packers wideouts Greg Jennings and James Jones) and a 100-yard rusher (Packers running back Ryan Grant), and a total of 430 yards allowed. Denver faces a Detroit offense recovering from injuries and are a solid option as a Bye week replacement.

Chiefs - The Chiefs faced a weak Oakland offense in Week 7 and reaped the benefits - 10 points allowed, two sacks, one interception and one fumble recovery. Kansas City and their solid run defense face a Green Bay team with an inconsistent running back situation in Week 9. The Chiefs can be used as a Bye week replacement or as a decent No. 1 option this Sunday.

Raiders - The Raiders defense has done a great job shutting down the pass, but they continue to struggle against the run. The Titans, Week 8's opponent, had only 42 passing yards, but Oakland gave up 192 rushing yards while holding the Titans to 13 points. This week Oakland is a one-week play possibility when they face an injury-riddled Houston offense. They are a strong play as a No. 1 option.

Chargers - The Chargers had an excellent defensive showing in Week 8, holding the Texans to just 10 points while collecting four interceptions and one fumble recovery. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie scored twice, once on a 70-yard interception return and the other on a fumble recovery in the end zone. The San Diego defense, despite playing weaker offenses, has allowed an average of just seven points per game in the last three games. They are a strong play as a No. 1 defense this week versus Minnesota.