How is Guillen's Fantasy Value Affected by Switch to First?

October 31, 2007 @ 07:38:59

By Kent Wilson
Edited by Ryan Dodson

A six dressed up as a three?

Yes, the 2008 season will see Detroit Tigers shortstop Carlos Guillen move across the diamond and take a permanent residence at first base.

Not a complete stranger to the position, Guillen started 31 games at first base last year and has welcomed the switch.

"I don't have any problem with it," said Guillen. "I want the team to get better."

Tigers manager Jim Leyland was quick to stress the move was more to minimize wear and tear on Guillen's knees than anything else. Guillen has been on the disabled list five times since 1999 and averaged only 125 games a season as a full-time big leaguer. 

"You want to take care of your investments," said Leyland.

Guillen will replace popular first baseman Sean Casey whose one-year contract expired at the end of last season. Guillen, in turn, will be replaced at shortstop by Edgar Renteria, a two-time Gold Glove Award winner and five-time All-Star. Renteria was acquired from the Atlanta Braves Oct. 29 in exchange for two prospects.

That's great for the Tigers, but just what does it do to Guillen's fantasy value?

Alas, it seems this Halloween has been more 'trick' than 'treat' for keeper-league general managers.

Although Guillen will be fantasy-eligible at shortstop in 2008, his long-term value will take a hit in 2009 when the switch-hitting Venezuelan and his then-broken-in trapper will compete head-to-head with other first-sackers.

A classic big fish in a small pond/small fish in a big pond scenario, Guillen's swimmingly buoyant numbers amid other shortstops will soon sink into the sloppy chop of first baseman plentitude.

Think of it as an opportunity.

You know the line about death and taxes, and fantasy sports are an inexact science at best. There's nothing wrong with milking your cash cow even though a foreclosure notice is on the way to the farm.  

Look at it this way. Guillen will continue to hit in the heart of a potent lineup while playing a full year at a less demanding position. Quite possibly, this could translate into even more production and fewer games missed by removing the daily rigors of toiling deep in the hole. 

If you're still unsure whether Guillen should break camp with your squad, realize that his maximum value is right now. Like sand through the hourglass, his fantasy credibility will diminish accordingly as the season progresses. Either keep him and utilize his services while exploring other shortstop opportunities during the season, or deal the veteran while his shortstop eligibility is at a premium. 

On the flipside, if you need help at shortstop and would like to acquire Guillen (with a one-year limited wear-out warranty), be sure to minimize Guillen's value with other owners by mentioning his looming ineligibility at shortstop. Don't target him specifically (nothing rotten in Denmark here), and you might even get him as a throw-in. 

Of course, if you're rebuilding, unload him while a cast of sabermetric hand puppets can still capture your competition's imagination. And relax. Don't agonize too much over losing your meal ticket. At 32 years old, the rearview mirror offers Guillen's best fantasy profile anyway.

Whatever you do, use Guillen's position change to your advantage.

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Kent Wilson
Kent has been with KFFL since 2007.

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