Matchups to Exploit - Week 8
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October 25, 2007 @ 16:18:38
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By Hot off the Wire Network Contributors
Edited by Nicholas Minnix
Colts WR Reggie Wayne vs. Panthers CB Chris Gamble
Wayne is Panthers wideout Steve Smith's equal, if you can believe it. Wayne leads the Colts with 37 catches for 500 yards and four scores. Gamble, the former first-round pick from Ohio State, will have his hands full. Most teams have had to double Wayne. The Jacksonville Jaguars did Monday night, but Wayne still caught nine passes for 131 yards. Gamble ranks third on Carolina's all-time list with 16 interceptions, one shy of former strong safety Mike Minter, who's in second place.
Panthers WR Steve Smith vs. Colts CBs Marlin Jackson and Tim Jennings
The Panthers are always looking to get the ball into the hands of their only true offensive threat. Smith is dangerous any time he touches the ball and lines up all over the place, but when he's on the left side in their base offense, he will draw Jackson. If split left in three-receiver sets, he gets Jennings. In the times he runs to the right side, if split wide, he would draw cornerback Kelvin Hayden. Smith is one of the NFL's best receivers with 35 catches for 496 yards and six touchdowns. The Colts have the No. 1 pass defense at 162.2 yards allowed per game. It's doubtful that it will matter who is throwing the passes for Carolina. Smith will be given the cushion on the underneath stuff, but look for the Colts to rotate strong safety Bob Sanders or free safety Antoine Bethea to Smith's side to prevent him from getting deep. The Panthers may try to throw some short passes to give Smith a chance to break some long gains.
Colts C Jeff Saturday vs. Panthers DT Kris Jenkins
Jenkins has been the closest thing to a consistent pass rusher the team has had, and history has shown one of the few ways to throw off quarterback Peyton Manning is to hit him with an inside rush. Despite his size (about 350 pounds), Jenkins is surprisingly quick, and he has the strength to overpower Saturday. The Colts will have to give Saturday help from the guards.
Panthers OT Travelle Wharton vs. Colts DE Dwight Freeney
Who is Wharton? Frankly, it doesn't matter. At 312 pounds, he's too slow to stay with Freeney one-on-one. Ask Jacksonville. They tried to block Freeney with one guy once, and it cost the Jags a safety. Freeney added a late sack and a second forced fumble against the Jaguars. He is frustrated but understands the double teams will be a constant. If Carolina makes the mistake of not blocking him, they will regret it. Freeney has 3.5 sacks and 11 pressures, both team bests.
Browns WR Braylon Edwards vs. Rams CB Tye Hill
Edwards has 29 catches for 552 yards (19.0-yard average). His seven touchdowns are one more than his total for 2006, and he's doing a much better job of hanging on to the ball. Hill missed four games but returned two weeks ago and started versus the Seattle Seahawks. He had four tackles and a pass defensed last week.
Browns TE Kellen Winslow vs. Rams SS Corey Chavous
After two injury-plagued seasons with the Browns, in 2004 and '05, Winslow is coming into his own as a receiving threat. New offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski has come to Cleveland from the San Diego Chargers and has brought with him some of the Chargers' playbook used to get the ball to tight end Antonio Gates. Chavous (pectoral) is not 100 percent, coming off a game in which his pectoral muscle injury was aggravated somewhat against Seattle.
Rams RB Steven Jackson vs. Browns run defense
Jackson (groin) has missed four games with a groin injury but is expected to return this week. He has carried 69 times for 233 yards (3.4-yard average), no touchdowns and two lost fumbles. He ran for 1,528 yards and 13 touchdowns last year. Jackson couldn't have picked a better time to return from his partially torn groin muscle. After missing the past four games as the injury healed, Jackson faces the NFL's 30th-ranked rush defense; the Browns are allowing 149.5 yards per game. They spent the bye week tweaking the defense and trying to improve the tackling. The Browns have allowed a 100-yard rusher in all six games this season. Jackson will be running behind a makeshift line, though, with center Brett Romberg (ankle) now sidelined with ankle injuries. That will likely leave right guard Richie Incognito and current left tackle Alex Barron as the only original starters on the field against the Browns.
Giants WR Plaxico Burress vs. Dolphins CB Will Allen
This matchup between old teammates could be an interesting one, especially since Burress had his streak of games with a receiving touchdown stopped at six last week. Allen is a good cover corner who has great trouble holding on to interceptions. Burress, of course, will have a distinct height advantage and will be looking to exploit that as he tries to build on his season's 35 catches for 550 yards and eight touchdowns. He's still on pace to shatter the Giants' single-season touchdown record of 13, set in 1967 by wide receiver Homer Jones.
Giants TE Jeremy Shockey vs. Dolphins LB Channing Crowder
Shockey continues to show signs of breaking out in the passing game when he's not needed for run blocking. He finished last week's game with five catches for 39 yards and a touchdown, and he has had consistent looks going up against the linebackers. Shockey has contributed 332 yards and two touchdowns on his 28 catches this season. He has caught 10 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown the last two games; he has had five games where he has caught five passes. He had good success against the Dolphins in 2003, with 11 catches for 110 yards. This season, Crowder (ankle) has drawn most of the tight end assignments and hasn't faired poorly, limiting the Washington Redskins' Chris Cooley to one catch for 10 yards and the Dallas Cowboys' Jason Witten to two catches for 27 yards in those losses. That was before Crowder injured his left ankle in the Sept. 30 loss to the Oakland Raiders, though. Since his return two weeks later, he has been a liability in coverage because of his limited range of motion. Both the Browns and New England Patriots attacked him with their tight ends. With linebacker Zach Thomas (neck) likely sitting out the game due to a neck injury, it's unlikely that Crowder will be replaced in the nickel packages like he has been the past two games.
Dolphins OT Vernon Carey vs. Giants DE Michael Strahan
Strahan isn't having as productive a season as some of the Giants' other defensive linemen, but he's still a force to be reckoned with on every down. This season, Strahan has tallied four sacks, 11 quarterback hurries and five quarterback takedowns. Carey, who is midway into his conversion from right tackle to left, is settling into his new role nicely. So far he has allowed three of the team's 13 sacks this season, but none of them were blow-by plays. The former first-round pick is also the Dolphins' top run-blocking offensive lineman, which explains why the majority of running plays are designed to go behind the left side.
Raiders RB LaMont Jordan vs. Titans run defense
The Titans are ranked No. 1 in the NFL in run defense, allowing just 59.7 yards per game. Jordan is one of the league's top rushers, though, and is averaging 4.4 yards per carry. The Raiders will certainly try and get the ground game going Sunday. Jordan may find it tough sledding, however.
Titans WR Roydell Williams vs. Raiders CBs Nnamdi Asomugha and Stanford Routt
Williams is coming off the Titans' first 100-yard receiving game of the year. He'll continue to be a focus with wide receiver Brandon Jones (knee) expected to be sideline again - or at the least limited. Williams has great speed and the ability to stretch the field. He could prove to be troublesome for the Raiders' top corners.
Titans TE Bo Scaife vs. Raiders SS Michael Huff
Huff doesn't have an interception yet in his career; Scaife has just 16 receptions for 149 yards and one touchdown. Huff and Scaife are well-acquainted, though, having played together at the University of Texas - as did Titans quarterback Vince Young (quadriceps). Huff has come close to getting his first interception in each of the last two weeks, and Tennessee as an offense has been tight end-oriented for the past few years.
Raiders OT Barry Sims vs. Titans DE Kyle Vanden Bosch
Vanden Bosch leads the Titans with three sacks and excels by being a high-effort player. He is not the type to overwhelm opponents with an explosion of overpowering strength. Sims, after playing well against Miami before the bye, has struggled the past two games against linebackers Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips of San Diego and along with red-hot Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Jared Allen. As good as Vanden Bosch is, Sims should be well-prepared through the last few weeks to hold his own, provided the Raiders have some success on the ground.
Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger vs. Bengals pass rush
Going into Cincinnati Sunday, Roethlisberger finds himself a step or two below the elite quarterbacks in the NFL, and that perception has not been helped by spotty play in front of him on the offensive line. Roethlisberger threw four touchdown passes in the loss to the Denver Broncos last Sunday, but in the midst of what might have appeared to be a good game were two interceptions, four sacks and a fumble recovery returned for a touchdown by Denver. Poor pass blocking has forced Roethlisberger to use his size and athletic ability to escape the pocket and - although he has done it well enough for the Steelers to be 4-2 - it has seriously disrupted rhythm in the passing game. The Bengals, with a total of 11 sacks from 10 players and a 2-1 record at home, could decide to repeatedly blitz Roethlisberger, which would be their best chance for victory. Incidentally, the Steelers have won six games in a row, including a wildcard playoff game after the 2005 season, at Cincinnati. Head coach Marvin Lewis is 0-5 at home against the Steelers. Roethlisberger is 4-0 as a starter against the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. Lewis has asked Bengals fans the past two weeks not to sell their tickets to Steelers fans so the Bengals can have a home crowd.
Bengals QB Carson Palmer vs. Steelers pass defense
A relatively weak schedule has helped vault the Steelers near the top of the NFL defensive categories, but Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler had no trouble solving defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's defense, completing 22 of 29 passes for three touchdowns. Cutler's yardage total of 248 yards was 74 more than what the Steelers have been allowing on the average. Now, without Pro Bowl strong safety Troy Polamalu making the big plays that have characterized his game over the years (one hurry, no sacks and no interceptions in six games), the Steelers must find a way to slow down Palmer (No. 3 in the league with 1,717 aerial yards), along with wide receivers Chad Johnson (No. 3, 680) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (No. 7, 548).
Steelers RBs Willie Parker and Najeh Davenport vs. Bengals run defense
The Steelers, still the NFL's second-ranked rush offense at 159 yards per game, handed the ball only 23 times to Parker and Davenport for 99 yards in their loss Sunday night at Denver. They would be foolish not to run their backs more often against the Bengals. Cincinnati has the NFL's 27th-ranked rush defense (135.5 yards allowed per game), even after holding the New York Jets to 84 rush yards on 26 carries.
Eagles RB Brian Westbrook vs. Vikings run defense
The Vikings rank fourth in the league against the run, and with quarterback Donovan McNabb obviously not 100 percent as he recovers from last year's anterior cruciate ligament injury, the Eagles offense leans on Westbrook a lot. The Eagles are not a run-oriented team, but their pass protection and overall efficiency tend to break down when they can't at least use the run as a change of pace. Westbrook averages 5.5 yards per carry. The Vikings are also last in the NFL against the pass. That means Westbrook, who leads the Eagles in both rushing and receptions, can expect to see plenty of passes out of the backfield. Middle linebacker E.J. Henderson will be one of the keys to making sure the versatile running back doesn't turn those short passes into long gains. Henderson is very good in run support but has issues against the pass. Westbrook will provide a tough test.
Vikings RB Adrian Peterson vs. Eagles run defense
Peterson is the key to the Vikings offense, which has the No. 1 running game in the league, but unlike a year ago, the Eagles actually have done well against the run this season; they rank eighth in the NFL. Defensive tackle Brodrick Bunkley, in his first season as a starter, has been a big reason why, along with overall improved defensive line health, which has allowed defensive coordinator Jim Johnson to rotate players in and out. Middle linebacker Omar Gaither will be another among those responsible for making sure the rookie doesn't have another huge day. That's easier said than done. Remember, Peterson rushed for a single-game franchise record of 224 yards two weeks ago against the Chicago Bears. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry last Sunday against Dallas but had only 12 rushing attempts. Considering the Vikings are 2-4 entering this game, one would figure Peterson should start getting the ball more - a lot more. The Cowboys game marked only the second time in six games this season that Peterson was held under 100 yards rushing.
Eagles WR Kevin Curtis vs. Vikings CBs Antoine Winfield, Cedric Griffin and Marcus McCauley
Curtis is the receiver the Vikings really wanted in free agency last offseason. However, after visiting the Vikings and Detroit Lions, Curtis elected to join the Eagles. He leads Philadelphia's wide receivers with 29 catches and four touchdowns this season. Ideally, the Vikings will get Winfield on Curtis as much as possible, but the Eagles figure to try to get Curtis matched up on McCauley in nickel situations when the rookie plays the left corner.
Lions WR Roy Williams vs. Bears CB Charles Tillman
Take away the huge production Williams had in the Lions' loss at the Philadelphia Eagles, and his season has been a major disappointment. The top playmaker in the Detroit offense simply has not been getting the ball from quarterback Jon Kitna, a problem the Bears would love to perpetuate for another week. Williams has just six catches in the last two games and has not scored a touchdown since the Week 3 game against the Eagles. With great size at 6-foot-3, 211 pounds, to go with exceptional speed and great route running, he's a matchup that should fall on Tillman's shoulders. Tillman is best when he's playing press man and can get his hands on a receiver at the line of scrimmage. When he's playing off man in the Bears' signature Cover 2 scheme, he can be picked on for a lot of underneath stuff that can turn into big plays deep if Tillman guesses wrong. Tillman has the size to handle Williams and figures to draw the matchup.
Bears QB Brian Griese vs. Lions LB Ernie Sims
Griese does a lot of his work underneath, where he is quick to get the ball out to tight ends or backs and doesn't lock on to a receiver downfield before coming off him at the last second to hit a checkdown. Sims is the best player not named Shaun Rogers (defensive tackle) on defense for the Lions and is playing the signature position in the Tampa 2 at weakside linebacker. He has the range to make plays from sideline to sideline and is an explosive tackler with good instincts. Griese made bad decisions throwing the football the first time they met, when he misdiagnosed some of the coverages. He must know where Sims is at all times because Sims possesses game-changing ability on defense, not something many Lions have.
Bears KR/PR Devin Hester vs. Lions special teams coverage
Hester returned a kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown against the Lions in the fourth quarter Sept. 30. Everyone knows Hester is the most dangerous return man in the NFL, and the Lions let him burn them the last time these teams met. The Lions need to keep the ball away from him as much as possible, and when he catches it, they must be aggressive. They can't be tentative and allow his legend to beat them.
Lions OT Jeff Backus vs. Bears DE Mark Anderson
Anderson had two sacks and two quarterback hurries Sept. 30 against Backus and the Lions. Backus was suffering from a strained muscle in his side the last time these teams met. He wasn't fully effective, and it showed against Anderson. Now Backus is feeling much better, and he must play much better to keep the Bears' pass rush at bay.
Jaguars QB Quinn Gray vs. Buccaneers CB Ronde Barber
Gray gets his first NFL start Sunday against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFC in passing yards allowed per game (185.6). That's not good news for Gray, who in his first action last week produced an 11.1 passing rating in nearly three quarters of action. Gray has a strong arm, but the lack of playing time and experience leaves him fighting an uphill battle against a Bucs secondary that is solid. Barber has been named to four Pro Bowls, including a streak of three straight. Now in his 11th season, Barber holds the team career interception record with 31 and has the second most career sacks among active defensive backs with 20. Last week Gray threw two interceptions and was sacked twice, including one that resulted in an Indianapolis safety.
Buccaneers QB Jeff Garcia vs. Jaguars secondary
At 37, Garcia is playing as well as he has in the past several years. He has yet to throw an interception this year, having thrown a Tampa Bay record 189 consecutive passes without an interception. He ranks second in the NFC and third in the NFL in passer rating (106.2); he is first in the NFC among third-down passing leaders. The Jaguars' secondary has not been as efficient in stopping the pass this year, ranking ninth in the AFC in passing yards allowed per game and per play. Cornerback Rashean Mathis has just one of the club's five interceptions this year to add to his franchise career high of 21. The other corner, Brian Williams, has two picks this year, the only Jaguars player with more than one. However, he had a tough game last Monday when Colts receiver Reggie Wayne burned him for most of his nine catches that resulted in 131 yards.
Buccaneers RB Michael Bennett vs. Jaguars LB Mike Peterson
The Bucs will probably have a hard time running between the tackles this week, so they'll no doubt look to make greater use of the newcomer, Bennett. Bennett will likely run a lot to the outside off pitches and sweeps. He'll be looking to turn upfield quickly, but Peterson can cut him off with his speed, savvy and playmaking ability. Bennett has to play physically to beat Peterson, because Peterson is not the toughest of players. If Bennett can gain some yards with leg drive, he'll win the battle.
Buccaneers WR Joey Galloway vs. Jaguars CB Brian Williams
Galloway does a great job of getting off the line and into his routes. That's where he has an edge on Williams. Williams is good in press coverage and plays well against bigger receivers, but speedy wideouts such as Galloway give him trouble. Williams doesn't have the athleticism to stay with Galloway all through a route, so Galloway should be able to gain separation from him. If Galloway gains separation, he should make some big plays, because Garcia will find a way to get the ball to him.
Jaguars OT Khalif Barnes vs. Buccaneers DE Kevin Carter
If Barnes doesn't improve on his performance in Monday's game against Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney, Gray could be in for another long day. Freeney had two sacks (one of which resulted in a safety), two forced fumbles and was credited with two quarterback hits. Barnes has struggled in other games this year, and while the coaching staff has its concerns about that spot, there isn't anybody on the roster that can replace him. Carter is another veteran who ranks fourth among active players with 99.5 career sacks. He's also a two-time Pro Bowler. If Carter gets a couple of quick sacks against Barnes, it could rattle Gray for the rest of the game.
Buccaneers OG Arron Sears vs. Jaguars DT John Henderson
Sears is a second-round draft pick who has started all seven games for the Bucs this year. At 6-foot-3, 319 pounds, Sears will give up four inches in height and 16 pounds in weight to Henderson. Sears has been solid this year but has yet to encounter someone of Henderson's size and ability. The Jaguars tackle is a two-time Pro Bowler in his first five years with the team and already ranks fourth in team history with 23 career sacks. How much pressure Henderson and his linemate, defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, can put on Garcia will go a long way toward determining the outcome of this game. Henderson has started 81 of the 85 games he has played during his five-year career.
Texans RB Ahman Green vs. Chargers defensive line
Green (knee) has not been the same player since he was inactive for two starts because of a bruised knee. The Chargers are sixth against the rush, and the Texans have yet to have a running back record 100 rushing yards in a game. Green has especially struggled in the last two weeks. He has just 27 carries for 83 yards and no touchdowns. He has just one rushing touchdown this season.
Chargers RB LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Texans front seven
Tomlinson's statistical numbers improved greatly with a 198-yard outing against the Oakland Raiders, and he has a chance to put up more big numbers against a Houston defense that ranks just 20th against the run. The offensive line has played splendidly the past two games and didn't miss a beat against the Raiders when Pro Bowl center Nick Hardwick (foot) was lost with a foot injury. Houston has some impressive young defenders in middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans, defensive end Mario Williams and defensive tackle Amobi Okoye; they will likely be geared up to stop Tomlinson. Thus far, the Texans haven't fared that well stopping the run, though.
Chargers TE Antonio Gates vs. Texans secondary
Gates has been a reception machine this season with 43 receptions and is on pace to surpass the Chiefs' Tony Gonzalez's record for receptions (102) by a tight end. An eight-catch day against the Texans would get him halfway there after just seven games. The Texans are deep at safety, with free safety Von Hutchins and strong safety C.C. Brown. They also have former Seattle Seahawks starter Michael Boulware and former Baltimore and Giants starter Will Demps serving in reserve roles. They could try to spring a variety of coverage packages against Gates as opposed to the mismatches with outside linebackers that Gates regularly feasts on.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers vs. Texans pass rush
The Texans have struggled immensely this season to put pressure on quarterbacks. Ryans had the team's lone sack last week. The team is typically just rushing their front four. The actual blitz packages have been picked up easily by the opposition and have been very ineffective. After a poor start, Rivers may be coming into his own as a starter this season. He has completed 116 of 178 pass attempts for 1,312 yards, seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. However, part of the reason may be that the offense has asked him to do less.
Bills RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Jets linebackers
This is the week Lynch fans have been waiting for. He has faced rough defenses four of the past five weeks. Finally Lynch gets the chance to break out against a Jets defense that is ranked 28th overall and 28th versus the run. The Bills used a pass-first approach in the first meeting versus New York and it worked well. With rookie quarterback Trent Edwards making his first official road start, though, it's a great time to lean on the rookie runner. Expect Lynch to get his 100 this week. Jets linebacker Jonathan Vilma (knee) will not play, according to New York media reports. That could be another boost to the Buffalo run game.
Bills WR Lee Evans vs. Jets CBs David Barrett and Darrelle Revis
Evans still is looking for his breakout game this season, although things are looking a little better for him. He had five catches for 98 yards versus Baltimore, including a 54-yard catch that set up the Bills' final touchdown. Two weeks before against the Jets he had six receptions for 72 yards. Evans had a 22-yard catch on Barrett in the first game. He burned Revis repeatedly on intermediate patterns from the slot. Evans is still trying to get chemistry going with Edwards. The Jets are ranked 26th against the pass. Revis is a good rookie corner, but he and the rest of the secondary aren't getting much help from an inconsistent pass rush. The Bills will likely try to get the ball to Evans this week.
Jets WR Jerricho Cotchery vs. Bills CB Terrence McGee
Cotchery had eight receptions for 106 yards in the first meeting as Buffalo's defense let the Jets complete passes on plenty of short and intermediate patterns. With Cotchery's ability to make yardage after the catch, he can turn some of those short balls into longer gains. The Bills only sacked Jets quarterback Chad Pennington once in that game, so he should have time to find Cotchery. Pennington threw for 272 yards and a season-high three scores at Cincinnati on Sunday.
Redskins QB Jason Campbell vs. Patriots defense
The list of quarterbacks who have lost the first time they faced a defense coached by Pats head coach Bill Belichick is long and illustrious. Former Dolphins great Dan Marino, the Colts' Peyton Manning, former San Francisco 49ers great Joe Montana, former 49ers great Steve Young, the Bengals' Carson Palmer... none could solve Belichick's multiple fronts and disguised coverages. Campbell is an athletic quarterback, but he is making just his 14th career start and gets a lot of help from a strong running game. The Patriots will try to force him to stay in the pocket.
Patriots WR Wes Welker vs. Redskins CB Fred Smoot and SS LaRon Landry
Welker has become a vital part of the New England offense, as quarterback Tom Brady finds him on a lot of underneath routes. Welker, acquired in a trade with Miami during the offseason, has benefited greatly from teams focusing their coverage on receivers Randy Moss and Donte' Stallworth. Lining up primarily as the slot receiver, Welker has a team-high 47 receptions. He also has 524 receiving yards and five touchdowns. The shifty and quick receiver has enjoyed career days each of the past two weeks, totaling 20 catches for 262 yards and four touchdowns against Miami and Dallas. Washington's secondary is one of the best in the NFL. As the Redskins' nickelback, Smoot (hamstring) may find himself lined up opposite Welker quite a bit. Depending on injury situation, Landry could play a big role in covering Welker, too, either in man coverage or shadowing him as the deep safety. The rookie safety is third on the team with 35 tackles and also has two pass breakups.
Redskins C Casey Rabach vs. Patriots NT Vince Wilfork
Wilfork, all 325 pounds of him, anchors the middle of New England's 3-4 defense, often drawing double teams, which frees up linebackers Tedy Bruschi and Adalius Thomas to flash through the gaps. Wilfork has 32 tackles (third on the team) and one sack. Rabach (groin) is giving away 31 pounds and is also coming off a groin injury that caused him to sit out last week, his first missed game in nearly four years. Rabach will probably get some help from offensive guard Jason Fabini or offensive guard Pete Kendall.
Saints WRs Marques Colston and Devery Henderson vs. 49ers CB Nate Clements
Clements signed a mega free-agent contract with the Niners in the offseason to be the kind of cornerback that can shut down an opponent's top receivers. Colston and Henderson make up just the tip of the iceberg this week. The Saints like to spread the ball around to a variety of receivers; Colston and Henderson are the two deep threats, along with possession wideouts David Patten and Lance Moore. Henderson got back into form last week with a 37-yard touchdown reception, an indication that Henderson could become more involved in the Saints' deep passing game - if he has emerged from the pass-dropping doghouse. Henderson led the NFL in yards per reception last season but has been inconsistent this year. Colston caught three balls last week and is always quarterback Drew Brees' No. 1 target.
Saints TE Eric Johnson vs. 49ers SS Michael Lewis
The strong safety ordinarily draws the challenge of covering the tight end. Johnson, who signed with the Saints after spending his career with San Francisco, would like nothing better than having a big game against his old team this week. Johnson, who had five catches last week against the Atlanta Falcons, has caught 28 passes, second on the Saints only to running back Reggie Bush and two more than the top wide receiver. He is fast becoming a prime target for the Saints underneath deep coverage, which is aimed to neutralize New Orleans' vertical passing game. Johnson's strong suit is pass catching, but his run blocking borders on inadequate.
49ers TE Vernon Davis vs. Saints pass defense
Davis (knee) has been up-and-down since coming to the 49ers. He failed to make a catch down the field last week against the Giants that could've gone for a long touchdown. However, he still might be the team's biggest offensive weapon. Quarterback Alex D. Smith (shoulder) is scheduled to return to action, and he might have an opportunity to get the ball to Davis. The Saints defense has been susceptible to the pass, as they've yielded 244 yards passing per game. Although he played last week, Davis was not quite 100 percent. He should be healthier and ready to make an impact this week.
49ers QB Alex D. Smith vs. Saints pass defense
The 49ers have the league's worst passing game, but at least will have a chance this week to make some improvements on that. He might not be 100 percent because he's coming back from a Grade 3 shoulder separation, but the offense looks to be in a better place, in some regards. First, offensive coordinator Jim Hostler appears to have changed the mindset to more of an attacking mode. Also, Smith will have better weapons with which to work. Wide receiver Ashley Lelie, the 49ers' best deep threat, is in line to get more playing time Sunday, as starter Darrell Jackson (quadriceps) seems unlikely to play. Lelie saw his most extensive playing time of the season this past Sunday; he caught a 47-yard pass from backup passer Trent Dilfer. It was the 49ers' longest offensive play of the season.
Broncos QB Jay Cutler vs. Packers secondary
Cutler is getting more comfortable every week, and he's airing it out with regularity. Coming off the game-winning drive against Pittsburgh, watch for Cutler to continue to pass the ball. The Packers have the 22nd-ranked pass defense in the NFL. Watch for Cutler try to go blow for blow with Packers passer Brett Favre, a player he has been compared to, and try to take advantage of the Packers' weakness on defense.
Broncos TEs Daniel Graham and Tony Scheffler vs. Packers LBs A.J. Hawk, Nick Barnett and Brady Poppinga
Denver uses a two-tight end set more than they use any other personnel grouping; Graham and Scheffler provide Cutler with two big, fairly athletic targets in the middle of the field. Barnett and Hawk are decent cover men and, along with Poppinga, will be matched against those tight ends most of the game. Graham and Scheffler have combined for only 18 receptions so far this season, but with receiver Javon Walker (knee) out, they might be asked to pick up some of the slack in Denver's offense. The player they'll probably try to attack is Poppinga, who is by far the worst in coverage of the Packers' three linebackers.
Packers WRs Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and James Jones vs. Broncos Ss John Lynch and Nick Ferguson
Although the Packers are ranked 30th in the NFL in average yards per rush, they'll probably try to run the ball some against the NFL's worst run defense (last in yards allowed, 31st in yards allowed per carry). If that forces the Broncos to bring a safety up to play the run on early downs, the Packers might try to hit Denver with some deep throws to their trio of receivers. Neither Lynch nor Ferguson is fast and probably will have trouble getting to the sidelines on deep balls if he's playing as a lone deep safety. Therefore, the Packers, who have lived mostly on the short pass this season, should have a better chance of hitting a couple of big plays downfield.
Packers RBs DeShawn Wynn and Vernand Morency vs. Broncos run defense
Something has to give. The Broncos have the worst run defense in the NFL, but the Packers have the worst rushing attack in the league. The Broncos' run defense improved last week against the Steelers with a faster, aggressive defense featuring younger defensive lineman. It's too early to say Denver's run defense is all the way back, but it has confidence. The Packers don't have much of a running game, so it could be another decent day for the run defense.
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