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AFC North Fantasy Outlook

October 25, 2007 @ 13:55:04

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 4-7, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Palmer has struggled of late, and one could be quick to blame that on the running game, but after the performance by running back Kenny Watson last week, he's beginning to run out of excuses. Palmer has seen his interceptions total creeping closer and closer to his touchdowns total each week. Over the last four weeks he is averaging 260 yards with 1.33 touchdowns to 1.67 interceptions per game. The Bengals matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers this week, a team that despite having a solid defense, has allowed Palmer to throw nine touchdowns and four interceptions over their last four meetings. Palmer is a moderate No. 1 this week and has proven he can throw against the Steelers.
Running Back Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers: Maybe head coach Mike Tomlin didn't realize that the Denver Broncos have the worst rushing defense in the league, giving up an average of 182.3 yards per game to opposing backs over the last month. The Steelers lost, and Parker carried the ball 21 times for 93 yards. Parker faces another favorable matchup this week in Cincinnati, a team that isn't giving up as many yards on the ground as the Broncos but close enough. They are giving up an average of 117 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks making Parker a solid No. 2 option this week in Cincinnati.
Wide Receiver Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: Johnson continues to draw the attention of opposing defenses and his numbers are beginning to reflect that. He made three receptions last week for 102 yards and no scores. Johnson's end zone drought is now at four games and counting with a tough matchup this week against the Steelers. His averages over the past four weeks don't show that he's the No. 1 option: 4.67 receptions for 79.3 yards and no touchdowns per game. He's still a solid No. 2 in this week's rankings.
Wide Receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals: Houshmandzadeh is a prime example of where hard work and conservative touchdown celebrations get someone. Although he didn't notch his fourth straight 100-yard receiving performance in Week 7, he did catch a touchdown is his sixth consecutive game. Houshmandzadeh leads the team in receptions (51) and touchdowns (eight) and continues to be Palmer's go-to guy in the clutch. Houshmandzadeh is a solid No. 1 play this week, and he ranks near the top of our wide receiver rankings.
Wide Receiver Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns: Before the team's Week 7 Bye, Edwards pulled in three touchdowns against the Miami Dolphins. Those three scores were the most he has made in a game since being drafted in the first-round of the 2005 draft. Quarterback Derek Anderson has proven to be more than adequate at the position and continues to look his way inside the red zone. Edwards leads the team in red zone plays averaging two per game over the last four weeks. Edwards also leads the team in touchdowns (seven) and is a solid No. 1 option this week.
Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: Winslow is having a great season and is well on his way to a 1,000-yard campaign. Before the team's Week 7 Bye, Winslow continued his consistent play, bringing in five receptions for 90 yards. He is currently tied with Edwards for the team lead in receptions (29) and is averaging 4.3 catches for 78.3 yards per game over the last four weeks. The St. Louis Rams are allowing 3.25 receptions for 29.5 yards per game to the position while also allowing 0.75 touchdowns during that same span. Expect the Rams to allow that and quirt possibly then some as Winslow is our No. 1 rated tight end this week.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Derek Anderson	Cleveland Browns	3	245.3	2.33	1.33	6.7	0.33
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	246.7	2.33	1.33	15.7	0.00

Anderson - Anderson heads into this week's matchup after having a huge game against the Dolphins in Week 6. He threw for 245 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions. Anderson also ran for a score, his second rushing touchdown of the year. Anderson leads the Browns into St. Louis, a team that is 0-7 and isn't getting any better defensively. They are allowing 252 passing yards and 1.50 passing touchdowns per game over the last four weeks. He is a solid No. 1 due to his strong play matchup.

Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger had one of his best games of the season last week, and though the Steelers lost, he still threw for 290 yards and four touchdowns against Denver. The Broncos secondary hasn't stopped anyone of late, and neither has this week's opponent Cincinnati. The Bengals are allowing 255.7 yards passing and 2.67 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks. For that reason Roethlisberger is a solid No. 1 option with a strong play matchup.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Rudi Johnson	Cincinnati Bengals	1	4.00 (2.29)	0.00 (0.00)	8.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Kenny Watson	Cincinnati Bengals	3	23.00 (39.57)	3.33 (46.02)	84.3	1.00	2.67	16.3	0.00
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	2	12.00 (14.40)	2.00 (12.86)	37.5	0.50	0.00	0.0	0.00
Jason Wright	Cleveland Browns	3	16.00 (28.80)	3.33 (32.15)	48.3	0.33	2.33	27.3	0.00
Najeh Davenport	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	6.00 (9.76)	1.00 (11.43)	26.3	0.67	1.33	12.7	0.00

Johnson - Johnson (hamstring) was inactive last week against the New York Jets due to a hamstring injury that has kept him out two of the past four weeks. He was replaced by Watson, who had a career day in his place, leaving his status unclear for this week's matchup against the Steelers.

Watson - Watson erupted last week to have the best game of his career, carrying the ball 31 times for 130 yards and three touchdowns. It remains unclear whether Watson will start his fourth consecutive game, or if Johnson will return in some capacity. Either way, both backs may struggle to run against the Steelers. They are allowing only 53 yards rushing per game to opponents backs over the last four weeks. Despite his weak play matchup, Watson remains a No. 1 back this week.

Lewis - Lewis (foot) didn't participate in practice Monday, Oct. 22, and was limited in practice Wednesday, Oct. 24. This isn't a good sign for Lewis, who missed an opportunity to run all over the Dolphins defense in Week 6. Lewis remains questionable and could be a game-time decision.

Wright - If Lewis can't go, Wright should get his second consecutive start. Wright started in Week 6 against the Dolphins, carrying the ball 20 times for 59 yards and a touchdown. He also lost a fumble late, but it was not significant to the outcome. The Rams are allowing 105.5 yards rushing per game over the last four weeks to opposing backs, including 0.50 touchdowns. Wright is a moderate No. 2 to solid No. 3 running back option this week.

Davenport - Davenport was ineffective against the Broncos last Monday night, carrying the ball two times for six yards. His lack of carries was shocking considering the Broncos have a horrible run defense. This week's matchup isn't as favorable, but the Bengals are still running back friendly. Davenport just doesn't get enough touches to be a factor and should be looked at as a Bye week fill-in or left on the bench.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	3	3.67 (6.60)	0.67 (6.43)	2.00	18.3	0.33
Hines Ward	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	12.00 (6.51)	1.00 (3.81)	7.00	78.0	0.00
Santonio Holmes	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	10.50 (11.39)	1.00 (7.62)	6.00	91.0	1.50

Jurevicius - Jurevicius (knee) was limited in practice Monday, Oct. 22, but he was able to return to full practice Wednesday, Oct. 24, and he should be able to play this Sunday. Jurevicius returns from the team's Bye having made only three receptions for 28 yards in his last game. He continues to be a sporadic contributor in the Browns' offense to this point. He is no better than a Bye week fill-in this week, but he could serve as a desperation one-week play based on his strong play matchup.

Ward - Ward (knee) returned to action last Sunday night to make seven catches for 78 yards after missing the last three weeks with a knee injury. Ward led the team in receptions and was one of Roethlisberger's primary targets. The Cincinnati secondary has struggled of late, and they are allowing 170 yards and 1.67 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks. Ward has a strong play matchup and is a solid No. 2 option this week.

Holmes - Holmes (hamstring) also returned last Sunday night and made an immediate impact as well, bringing in six passes for 54 yards and a touchdown. Holmes benefited from the team's Bye in Week 6, which allowed his hamstring to get another weeks rest. He is catching an average of 1.50 touchdowns per game and is the No. 1 receiving option in our rankings this week.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Reggie Kelly	Cincinnati Bengals	3	2.67 (4.59)	0.00 (0.00)	1.67	28.7	0.00
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	5.33 (8.68)	1.67 (19.05)	4.00	46.7	1.00

Kelly - Kelly was once again a non-factor in last week's matcup against the Jets. He didn't make a reception, nor did he put up any statistical evidence to show that he had played. Kelly remains an afterthought in the Bengals offense to this point and should remain a bench player.

Miller - With the returns of Ward and Holmes to the offense last week, the Broncos' defense seemed to forget all about Miller. He had his best game of the season, pulling in five catches for 50 yards and two touchdowns. Miller has a strong play matchup this week against the Bengals who are allowing an average of 4.67 receptions, 53.3 yards and 0.67 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks. Miller is a solid No. 1 option this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Shayne Graham	Cincinnati Bengals	3	2.67	2.67	1.67	1.67	7.7
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	3	3.33	3.33	1.67	1.67	8.3
Jeff Reed	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	3.00	3.00	0.33	0.00	3.0

Graham - Graham contributed a field goal and five extra points versus the Jets last week. The Bengals offense has been pretty efficient putting the ball in the end zone, limiting Graham's field goal opportunities. He has proven to be up the task when he gets his chances however, hitting all five of his field goal attempts over the last four weeks. Graham has a weak play matchup at home this week against a Steelers club that is allowing only 3.3 points per game to opposing kickers over the last four weeks. He should be looked at as a Bye week fill-in or benched.

Dawson - Dawson returns from the team's Bye week to face a favorable opponent in St. Louis. Their defense hasn't stopped anyone of late, and they also play inside a kicker's friend, a dome. In Dawson's last game before the Bye, he put up 11 points in a perfect performance. The Rams are allowing an average of 11.5 points per game to the position over the last four weeks. Dawson has a strong play matchup and is a solid No. 1 option this week.

Reed - Reed has gotten just one attempt over the past four weeks, which came Sunday night from 50 yards out. The Bengals are allowing an average of 10.0 points per contest over the last four weeks to opposing kickers. Until Reed can get more opportunities he should remain on the bench.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Cincinnati Bengals	3	30.7	0.67	2.3	0.67	0.3
Cleveland Browns	3	24.0	1.00	0.7	0.33	0.0
Pittsburgh Steelers	3	13.3	1.00	2.3	0.67	0.0

Bengals - The Bengals defense could have their hands full this week against a balanced Steelers attack. They are giving up a ton of points, and they are no longer the type of defense they were a couple of years ago when they could offset some of that by creating a lot of turnovers. They do a decent job of rushing the passer, but at best they can be looked at as a Bye week fill-in this week.

Browns - The Browns return from their Bye to face a Rams' team that is set to be getting back stud running back Steven Jackson (groin). Still, the return of a star player isn’t necessarily a good thing as they found out last week when the Rams watched quarterback Marc Bulger return only to turn the ball over five times. The rested Browns have a strong play matchup and are a solid No. 1 option against a struggling Rams offense this week.

Steelers - The biggest chink in the Steelers armor continues to be against the pass as their opponents are finding nothing on the ground. In fact, the Steelers are only allowing 53 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs over the past month. This week's matchup against Palmer could create problems. The Steelers defense should be looked at as a Bye week fill-in at best.

Author Bio

Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.