Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC South Fantasy Outlook

October 25, 2007 @ 13:55:06

By Joe Book
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 4-7, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: Manning hasn't put up superhuman numbers this year, but he's still as solid as they come. His fantasy stats were padded last week by a short rushing touchdown in an otherwise mediocre week. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison (knee) is expected to be at full speed for the Colts' Week 8 matchup against the Carolina Panthers, and Manning should have time to throw against a Panthers defense that has registered only four sacks all season.
Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: Even with fellow running back Kenton Keith receiving 15 carries and scoring a touchdown, Addai had 107 total yards on 20 touches. He seems to be fully healthy after a bruised chest held him out of the Week 5 game against Tampa Bay. Expect Keith to play less of a role and Addai to flourish against a Carolina defense allowing more than 125 rushing yards per game over the last month.
Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Drew left Monday night's game with a sprained left knee, but he is expected to start this weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has four touchdowns in his last three games and has established himself as the primary ball carrier in the Jacksonville offense. He has a strong play against a Tampa Bay defense that hasn't stopped anyone running the ball of late.
Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts: After not playing a full game since Week 3 due to a sprained left knee, Harrison only caught three passes against the Jaguars. He wasn't used in the fourth quarter after the game became lopsided and didn't look particularly sharp when he was on the field. The Colts expect him to be at full strength this weekend, so start him and expect a solid, if not spectacular, contribution.
Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: Wayne posted his second 100-yard game of the season but was kept out of the end zone for only the third time this season. He has taken the reins as Manning's top target, and should continue to put up No. 1 numbers all season. This week will be no different as a healthy Marvin Harrison should draw some attention away from Wayne.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Matt Schaub	Houston Texans	4	223.2	0.25	0.50	7.8	0.00
Quinn Gray	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	28.0	0.00	1.00	3.5	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	2	138.5	0.00	2.00	16.5	0.00

Schaub - Schaub suffered multiple injuries to his leg and hip Sunday and threw only nine passes in the game. His status for Week 8 is uncertain, and X-rays on Schaub's hip were negative. If he doesn't play, Sage Rosenfels will start the game against the San Diego Chargers. Whoever ends up on the field has a weak play against a Chargers defense averaging 1.67 interceptions and negative rushing yards to the position over the last four weeks.

Gray - After quarterback David Garrard left Monday night's game against the Colts with a severely sprained ankle, Gray played atrociously, throwing two interceptions and passing for only 56 yards on 24 attempts. Garrard is expected to miss at least one week, so the three-year veteran will get the start in Week 8 against Tampa Bay. Gray is an unproven commodity and should ride the fantasy pine this week.

Young - Young sat out Week 7 with a quad injury, but Titans head coach Jeff Fisher said on Tuesday that Young will start this week against the Oakland Raiders. He has only one game this season with more than 27 yards rushing, and the injury will limit his ability to escape the pocket and gain ground yards. You probably didn't draft Young for his passing skills, and against an Oakland defense allowing only 163.7 passing yards per game in the last month, Young shouldn't be a fantasy starter until he proves he's fully healthy.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	2	19.00 (14.67)	3.00 (14.17)	41.5	0.00	3.50	18.0	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	13.00 (19.84)	0.67 (5.02)	65.3	0.00	1.00	1.7	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	2	9.00 (8.00)	0.50 (3.00)	26.5	0.50	1.00	3.5	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	3	25.67 (34.21)	3.33 (30.04)	66.7	0.67	2.00	10.3	0.00

Green - The Houston Texans fell behind early last week, leaving Green as a spectator in the second half. He managed 71 total yards but hasn't scored since Week 2. Houston ranks 31st in rushing yards for the season, and change-of-pace running back Ron Dayne has completely disappeared, so Green is alone on the island. San Diego hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown in the last month, so use Green only as a No. 3 running back with a weak play.

Taylor - Taylor has put up consistent numbers all season, but hasn't scored a touchdown and is losing carries by the week to running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who left last week's game with a sprained knee. If Jones-Drew is limited, he could see a few more touches. The positive is that you know what you are getting from Taylor. The negative is that you aren't getting much. He's a Bye week replacement at best this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Brown - With the emergence of rookie running back Chris J. Henry, Brown might find himself as the No. 3 option on the team. He missed Week 7 with an ankle injury, but is expected to return to action this week against the Oakland Raiders. White has clearly claimed the top spot on the depth chart, so Brown will struggle to produce for the remainder of the season. Only because the Raiders can't stop your dog from rushing for 100 yards, Brown should get some consideration as a Bye week replacement.

White - With weight and personal issues behind him, White is becoming the player the Titans thought they drafted with the 45th pick of the 2006 draft. White picked up his first career 100-yard game last week against the Texans and has a stranglehold on the top of the depth chart. He faces a Raiders team allowing a league-worst 156.0 yards and 2.00 touchdowns per game to running backs in the last month. Look for White to continue his excellent season and use him as a low-end No. 1 running back with a strong play.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Kevin Walter	Houston Texans	4	11.00 (16.99)	1.25 (11.80)	7.25	100.2	0.25
Andre' Davis	Houston Texans	4	8.00 (12.36)	1.00 (9.44)	4.00	78.5	0.50
Anthony Gonzalez	Indianapolis Colts	3	3.00 (4.12)	0.33 (2.31)	2.67	30.0	0.00
Dennis Northcutt	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	6.67 (10.17)	1.33 (10.04)	3.67	46.3	0.33
Reggie Williams	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	3.67 (5.60)	0.67 (5.02)	2.33	16.7	0.33
Roydell Williams	Tennessee Titans	3	7.67 (10.22)	1.67 (15.02)	4.00	62.3	0.00

Walter - Walter continued showing his Andre Johnson impersonation, grabbing six balls for 97 yards and a touchdown last week against the Titans. Backup quarterback Sage Rosenfels threw four touchdowns in the fourth quarter after Matt Schaub was knocked out of the game, and Walter proved to be a valuable weapon as the Texans nearly completed a historic comeback. With Johnson (knee) not expected to return until Week 11, continue to expect No. 1 numbers out of Walter. The matchup against San Diego makes him a strong No. 2 this week with a weak play.

Davis - While defenses attempt to stop wide receiver Kevin Walter and tight end Owen Daniels, Davis has found his niche as the Texans' main deep threat. He's averaging 19.2 yards per catch this season and caught a 53-yard touchdown pass with less than one minute remaining in Houston's thrilling game against Tennessee last week. He hasn't produced consistently enough to be considered a top receiver, but the Chargers defense has allowed too many big plays this year. Davis is a strong No. 2 receiver with a weak play.

Gonzalez - He didn't record a catch in Week 7 and has only 13 receptions on the season. Gonzalez wasn't able to take advantage when Marvin Harrison missed time with a knee injury, and now that Harrison is back on the field, Gonzalez finds himself near the bottom of the depth chart. He isn't a fantasy starter in any format until he begins to contribute.

Northcutt - After quarterback David Garrard left the game with an ankle injury, Northcutt never seemed to find a rhythm with backup Quinn Gray. He dropped several passes and finished with only 20 yards receiving. Gray had a horrible second half against the Colts, so Jacksonville's offense could struggle against a Tampa Bay defense allowing only 119.8 yards per game to wide receivers. Northcutt is a low-end No. 3 receiver with a weak play.

Re. Williams - Williams recorded no statistics last week, which can largely be attributed to the lack of quarterback production by David Garrard and Quinn Gray. Williams has only 11 receptions this season, with three going for touchdowns. He isn't a player that can be counted on to help any fantasy team and should be on the bench for your team this weekend.

Ro. Williams - He had his best game as a pro, racking up 124 yards and single-handedly helping quarterback Kerry Collins march down the field to get in position for the game-winning field goal. He has become the top option in a run-heavy offense, but with quarterback Vince Young (quad) expected to return, Williams' numbers will suffer. Oakland has allowed only 4.00 catches and 59.3 yards per game to receivers over their last three contests, so Williams is a weak play as a No. 3 receiver this weekend.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	4	7.00 (10.81)	1.00 (9.44)	4.50	66.0	0.00
Dallas Clark	Indianapolis Colts	3	8.33 (11.45)	1.67 (11.57)	5.67	63.7	1.33
George Wrighster	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	1.33 (2.03)	0.00 (0.00)	0.67	2.0	0.33
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	3	6.00 (8.00)	1.33 (12.02)	3.33	32.3	0.00

Daniels - Although he was held in check (two catches for 20 yards) last week, Daniels is still a top option in an offense ranked sixth in the NFL in passing yardage. No matter if Matt Schaub (leg) or Sage Rosenfels starts on Sunday, Daniels could exploit a San Diego defense allowing 56.0 yards per game to tight ends in the last month. He'll be looking to rebound from his worst game since Week 1 and is a solid No. 1 tight end with a strong play this week.

Clark - Meaningless touchdowns are still touchdowns, so Clark's score in the fourth quarter of the Colts blowout victory last week made his owners ecstatic. With Marvin Harrison (knee) ailing, Clark has become quarterback Peyton Manning's No. 2 target, behind stud receiver Reggie Wayne. Week 8 brings a battle against the Carolina Panthers, who have allowed only 16.7 yards per game to tight ends in the last month, best in the NFL. He's still a No. 1 tight end, but his extremely weak play means that this could be a disappointing week for Clark owners.

Wrighster - The three-headed monster of Wrighster, Greg Estandia and Marcedes Lewis combined for four catches and 40 yards. That isn't bad production for one player, but the Jaguars will continue to juggle time between these three tight ends. Until Wrighster emerges as the clear-cut No. 1, he belongs on your bench.

Scaife - Scaife set season highs with six catches for 49 yards and has been steadily receiving more looks from the Tennessee quarterbacks. With quarterback Vince Young (quad) set to start in Week 8, Scaife could continue to build rapport with the struggling signal caller. While Oakland has been incredibly stingy against wide receivers, they've allowed 66.7 yards per game in their last three contests to tight ends. Scaife is improving but is still only a low-end No. 1 tight end this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	4	1.50	1.50	3.00	2.75	9.8
Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	3	4.00	3.67	1.67	1.67	8.7
John Carney	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	2.67	2.33	1.33	0.67	4.3
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	3	1.67	1.67	4.00	3.67	12.7

Brown - Brown converted four extra points last week against the Titans but had no field goal attempts. During Houston's last three games before Week 7, Brown made 11 of 12 field goals. With the Texans checking in as one of the league's worst red zone teams, Brown could have several three-point chances this week against the Chargers. He's a solid No. 1 kicker this week and should rebound nicely.

Vinatieri - He continues to put up solid numbers every week and has made two or more field goals five times this season. Even with the efficiency of the Colts offense, Vinatieri will still get his chances. He remains a solid No. 1 kicker for one of the league's top scoring teams.

Carney - Two weeks ago, Carney looked like he was a bargain on the waiver wire. With only two field goals in his last three games, he should be placed back where you found him. Carney isn't a fantasy starter, especially with the injuries plaguing the Jacksonville offense.

Bironas - We knew he was a strong play, but eight field goals? Bironas' record-setting day ended with a game-winning 29-yarder to win the game. Since Tennessee apparently can't find the end zone on a regular basis, Bironas should put up solid kicking numbers all season long. Start him with confidence this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	4	28.5	0.25	1.25	1.25	0.25
Indianapolis Colts	3	13.7	1.33	1.67	0.67	0.00
Jacksonville Jaguars	3	17.0	1.00	2.33	0.67	0.33
Tennessee Titans	3	16.7	1.67	1.33	1.33	0.33

Texans - Two consecutive poor outings against average or below average offenses will not win over many fantasy owners. The Texans have four interceptions all season, and this week's matchup against San Diego doesn't look promising. This isn't the game that Houston turns it around. Stick them on your bench.

Colts - Bob Sanders might be the most valuable defensive player in the league, because with him on the field, nobody can pass on the Colts. The Week 8 game against Carolina will be a good test, but Indy's defense is firing on all cylinders right now and should get another start this week.

Jaguars - It wasn't Peyton Manning, but the running game of the Colts that killed Jacksonville last week. Indianapolis ran for 141 yards against a unit ranked near the top of the NFL against the ground game. They should rebound nicely against a Tampa Bay offense ranked 23rd in total yardage. Start the Jaguars this week and expect a solid outing.

Titans - The Titans played three good defensive quarters against Houston, and then the wheels fell off. The team survived the defensive collapse, but Houston quarterback Sage Rosenfels threw four touchdown passes in the fourth quarter. Sage Rosenfels? Tennessee will have to improve dramatically this week against Oakland, which ranks fourth in the NFL in rushing. Start Tennessee as a weak play this week.