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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 7

October 19, 2007 @ 11:10:10

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Herija C. Green

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players that aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterback - Strong Play

Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Campbell	3	218.3	1.33	0.33	6.0	0.33
Cardinals vs. Pos.	4	248.2	1.75	1.25	10.8	0.00

Campbell has been getting better week-by-week and his ability to run with the ball increases his value as a fantasy starter. He accounted for two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing) last week while throwing for 217 yards. The Cardinals defense is allowing nearly 250 passing yards and almost two touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks over the last four weeks. Campbell is a solid No. 1 option this week due to the strong play matchup.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Earnest Graham, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Graham	4	40.8	0.75	2.25	10.8	0.00
Lions vs. Pos.	3	115.7	1.67	6.67	75.7	0.67

The Buccaneers made a move this past week adding veteran running back Michael Bennett to their back field after Graham totaled 29 rushing yards and 17 receiving yards last week. The team expects to get Bennett involved in the running game this week but in a limited role. Graham should be the main back this week and faces a Lions defense that has struggled to stop anyone. His ability to catch the ball out of the backfield helps his cause and should be utilized against the Lions who are allowing nearly seven receptions for more than 75 yards per game over the last four weeks. For that Graham ranks as a solid No. 3 option this week.

LenDale White, Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
White	3	48.7	0.67	1.00	6.3	0.00
Texans vs. Pos.	4	129.0	1.25	5.00	41.8	0.00

The running back-by-committee appears to be over for the time being, after White was involved in 31 plays last week compared to five plays for running back Chris Brown (ankle), who could miss this week entirely due to the ankle injury he sustained in last week's contest. White made the most of his touches rushing for 64 yards and one touchdown on 25 carries. The Texans defense struggled to stop the run last week allowing 219 yards rushing, 84 receiving yards and two touchdowns against the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. White is solid No. 2 option this week with a strong play matchup.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Curtis	3	6.00	121.0	1.33
Bears vs. Pos.	4	12.50	187.0	1.00

Starting any of the Eagles' wide receivers has seemingly been a hit or miss proposition of late. Curtis has the ability to be a go-to receiver, but he has only been utilized effectively in two games this season. Last week was one of them in which he made five receptions for 121 yards and a score. Someone in Philadelphia has to get the ball after running back Brian Westbrook gets his share, and Curtis is the logical candidate. Curtis matches up well against a Bears secondary that is depleted by injuries and has struggled mightily to stop opposing offenses lately. Curtis ranks second on our rankings and is a great No. 1 receiving option this week.

Muhsin Muhammad, Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Muhammad	4	2.50	32.8	0.50
Eagles vs. Pos.	3	12.33	190.7	1.00

Muhammad has taken a back seat to wide receiver Bernard Berrian as the team's No. 1 receiver, but that didn't keep him from picking up his second receiving touchdown in his last three games last week. He still has some life left in him and facing an Eagles secondary that is struggling to get back some of their key personnel could make for a productive day. Muhammad ranks as a moderate No. 2 or solid No. 3 receiving option this week.

Santana Moss, Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Moss	2	1.50	41.0	0.00
Cardinals vs. Pos.	4	12.50	163.8	1.50

Moss struggled in returning to full action last week against the Green Bay Packers, making a crucial fumble that was returned for what turned out to be the game-winning touchdown. Not only was his turnover catastrophic to the team, but Moss decided to sit himself down after the fumble leaving him with zero catches for zero yards. This week's matchup against the Cardinals should bode well for him. They are allowing major real estate and 1.50 touchdowns per game to the position over the last four weeks. Moss ranks as a solid No. 2 option this week.

Tight End - Strong Play

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Lewis	3	2.67	29.0	0.00
Colts vs. Pos.	3	6.00	51.3	0.67

Lewis is continuing to get an average of four looks per game (6.09 percent) and is becoming an effective receiver for quarterback David Garrard. This week's matchup against the Colts defense is a favorable one considering they are ranked in the bottom eight in receptions (6.00), yardage (51.3) and touchdowns (0.67) surrendered to the opponent's tight end position in the past month. Lewis isn't Garrard's only option at tight end, as he shares touches with tight end George Wrighster, which makes Lewis a moderate No. 1 or Bye week fill-in.

Place Kicker - Strong Play

Matt Stover, Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Stover	4	4.00	3.50	1.00	1.00	11.5
Bills vs. Pos.	3	2.00	1.67	2.67	2.67	7.7

The Ravens offense continues to move the ball in the red zone, but they have failed to punch it in. That is where Stover comes in and has been so effective in fantasy. He is averaging 11.5 points per game while attempting a league-high average of four field goals and one extra point per game. Quarterback Kyle Boller is set to make his second straight start and should be competent enough to move the ball down the field for the Ravens offense. The Bills are ranked No. 21 in points allowed to the kicker position (7.7 per game) and are a team that is struggling to stop the opposing team's offense. Stover is ranked as our No. 1 kicking option this week.

Team Defense - Strong Play

Seattle Seahawks vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Seahawks Def.	4	16.2	326.2	2.8	1.00	1.00
Rams Off.	4	11.0	267.8	2.5	3.00	0.25

The Seahawks defense should get on track this week against a St. Louis Rams offense that have been decimated by injuries at every key offensive position this season. They also continue to get after the quarterback generating a solid amount of sacks and turnovers per game this season. The Rams offense shouldn't be completely overlooked as they are expecting the return of quarterback Marc Bulger (ribs) and wide receiver Isaac Bruce (hamstring) this week, but then again they were struggling with them in the lineup earlier this season. The Seahawks defense is a solid No. 1 option this week.

Quarterback - Weak Play

Daunte Culpepper, Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Culpepper	3	141.0	1.00	0.67	11.0	1.00
Chiefs vs. Pos.	4	229.5	0.75	1.00	2.8	0.00

After a great coming out party in Week 5 in which Culpepper compiled five total touchdowns, he struggled against the San Diego Chargers defense that was seemingly non-existent until they faced Culpepper last week. Culpepper faces a Chiefs defense that is better than expected, and though they gave up 320 passing yards and two touchdowns last week against the Cincinnati Bengals, it was quarterback Carson Palmer leading the attack and not Culpepper. He should be looked at as no better than a Bye week fill-in.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Ahman Green, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Green	2	24.5	0.00	2.00	7.5	0.00
Titans vs. Pos.	3	51.3	0.67	7.67	35.3	0.00

Green (knee) has the green light this week after practicing Thursday and is slated to face a tough Titans defense that has allowed a league-best 63.8 rushing yards against. Green returned in a limited role last week rushing 16 times for 46 yards against the Jacksonville Jaguars after he had missed the previous two games. Green should find it difficult to run against the Titans defense and is looked at as no better than a No. 3 running back option this week.

Travis Henry, Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Henry	3	77.0	0.33	0.00	0.0	0.00
Steelers vs. Pos.	3	51.7	0.33	3.00	11.3	0.00

Henry looks to have pushed the positive test for marijuana behind him for at least another week and looks to lead the Broncos backfield against a stingy Steelers defense. The Broncos also lost wide receiver Javon Walker (knee) to knee surgery for at least the next month, and Henry may be looked at to provide a much-needed offensive boost. However, Denver's options on offense are limited and the Steelers defense will likely look to capitalize on their lack of offensive weapons by zeroing in on their running game. Henry should be looked at as a moderate No. 2 or solid No. 3 option this week due to his weak play matchup.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Fitzgerald	4	7.75	110.2	0.25
Redskins vs. Pos.	3	9.67	93.3	0.33

Fitzgerald has watched the leader of their team's offense fall in consecutive weeks. Quarterbacks Matt Leinart (shoulder) is done for the year and quarterback Kurt Warner (elbow) is not expected to play this week, leaving only quarterback Tim Rattay, who has been with the team just over a week. This week's matchup figures to be difficult for Rattay, who is making his first start since last December. The Redskins secondary is solid, and as a unit, is one of the best in the league. With wide receiver Anquan Boldin set to return this week Rattay should have options, but Fitzgerald shouldn't be looked at as more than a moderate No.1 or solid No. 2 option at receiver this week.

Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Bowe	4	5.25	87.8	0.50
Raiders vs. Pos.	3	5.33	72.7	0.33

Bowe's growing pains have been more evident in the past two games as he has struggled to be as effective as he was in the previous three weeks when he caught a touchdown in each. Teams could be scheming to take out the receiver, or it could be the fact that he has played against tougher defenses the past two weeks. If the latter is the case the Raiders defense could cause some problems for Bowe as they excel in passing defense. This week's matchup has Bowe as a moderate No. 1 or solid No. 2 option due to his weak play matchup.

Andre' Davis and Kevin Walter, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Davis	4	4.00	74.0	0.25
Walter	4	6.25	80.2	0.00
Titans vs. Pos.	3	11.33	152.7	0.33

Both Davis and Walter have performed well in the absence of star wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee). Davis got off to a fast with quarterback Matt Schaub, and while his numbers have tailed off a bit, he still has been a prime target. Walter had his best game of the season last week, hauling in 12 receptions for 160 yards. Plus, he is being targeted more inside the red zone and outside of it than Davis. The Titans defense is stingy and has allowed only one touchdown over the last three games to that position. There should be enough passes to go around this week and that's why both receivers rank as a solid No. 2 receiver options this week.

Tight End - Weak Play

Owen Daniels, Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Daniels	4	5.75	75.0	0.00
Titans vs. Pos.	3	3.33	16.7	0.00

Daniels continues to be a focal part of the Texans offense, receiving 7.5 looks per game (11.87 percent) outside the red zone and 1.25 looks per game inside the red zone (11.5 percent). The Titans will likely look to focus on Daniels just like they do for any of their opponent's tight ends. The Titans have allowed an average of 3.33 receptions for 16.7 yards (second-fewest in the league) and no touchdowns per game to the position. Daniels still rates as a No. 1 tight end this week.

Place Kicker - Weak Play

Jason Elam, Denver Broncos vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Elam	3	1.00	1.00	1.33	1.33	4.3
Steelers vs. Pos.	3	1.33	1.00	1.33	1.33	4.3

Elam has been one of the most consistent fantasy kicker's year in and year out, but he has struggled to put up consistent numbers this year due to the porous Broncos offense. Elam has scored an average of just 4.3 points per game and shouldn't expect those numbers to increase this week against the Steelers. Since Week 3, the Steelers defense has allowed an average of just 4.3 points per game to the opposing teams' kicker. Needless to say, Elam should not be looked at as a fantasy starter this week.

Team Defense - Weak Play

Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Dolphins Def.	4	30.8	340.2	1.3	0.25	0.75
Patriots Off.	4	38.5	437.2	1.0	0.25	0.50

The Dolphins defense has been a huge disappointment this season, giving up an average of close to 31 points and more than 340 yards per contest while generating little to no pressure and forcing minimal turnovers since Week 3. Despite their past success against the Patriots they shouldn't be considered as a good matchup this week and have little to no fantasy value.

Author Bio

Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.