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NFC South Fantasy Outlook

October 18, 2007 @ 15:35:46

By Michael Egnak
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 3-6, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Byron Leftwich	Atlanta Falcons	2	34.0	0.00	0.5	0.5	0.00
Drew Brees	New Orleans Saints	3	241.0	0.67	2.00	3.0	0.00
Jeff Garcia	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	186.0	0.75	0.00	5.2	0.25

Leftwich - Leftwich will replace quarterback Joey Harrington in a move that makes little sense, but fantasy owners shouldn't even sniff this situation right now. Leftwich turned over the ball twice in a short appearance in Week 5, but he will get his first start as a Falcon in Week 7. He should be on your bench this week and is a weak play.

Brees - Brees looked like he was breaking out of his season-long slump Week 6 as he helped lead the team to their first win of the year. Brees completed 25 of his 36 passes for 246 yards with two touchdowns against the Seattle Seahawks. The Saints will play host to the Atlanta Falcons Week 7. Brees is just worth using as a Bye Week replacement.

Garcia - Garcia was 20-for-31 for 274 yards with one touchdown during the team's Week 6 game. Even more impressive is that Garcia has still gone without throwing an interception this season. Garcia will play against the Detroit Lions Week 7. Garcia is a strong play for the game, but his value is limited to being a low-end No. 1 quarterback or a Bye Week replacement.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Warrick Dunn	Atlanta Falcons	4	15.75 (26.36)	2.75 (29.41)	39.8	0.00	3.00	11.8	0.00
Jerious Norwood	Atlanta Falcons	4	10.25 (17.16)	1.50 (16.04)	42.8	0.25	2.75	26.2	0.00
Reggie Bush	New Orleans Saints	3	24.66 (34.42)	5.00 (40.53)	59.7	0.67	7.00	38.7	0.00
Aaron Stecker	New Orleans Saints	3	8.33 (11.63)	1.66 (13.51)	11.7	0.00	2.33	7.0	0.00
Earnest Graham	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	14.25 (28.18)	3.25 (40.92)	40.8	0.75	2.25	10.8	0.00

Dunn - Is Dunn done? It sure looks that way given his performance in the past two games. Dunn gained just 15 yards on eight carries Week 6 against the New York Giants. He also caught two passes, but he managed just 13 yards on them. He's averaging only 3.2 yards per carry on the season, with that number decreasing to 2.3 yards per carry in October. He hasn't had a run longer than 18 yards yet this season, and his longest reception is for 12 yards. Dunn will play against the New Orleans Saints Week 7. He is a weak play for the game and is just worth using as a No. 3 running back.

Norwood - Norwood managed 87 rushing yards on just six carries Week 6, including a 67-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. He also caught four passes for 51 yards during the game. It was clearly Norwood's best game to date, and combined with Dunn's struggles, Norwood could find himself earning more carries as the year progresses. He will play the New Orleans Saints Week 7. Norwood is a weak play for the game, and he is just worth using as a No. 3 running back.

Bush - Bush did better in his second game as the team's feature running back. He carried the ball 19 times for 97 yards and caught six passes for another 44 receiving yards. His yards per carry were higher than four for the first time this season as he helped pick apart the Seattle Seahawks Week 6. He will play the Atlanta Falcons Week 7. Bush is a strong play against the Falcons and worth using as a low-end No. 1 or a No. 2 fantasy running back.

Stecker - Stecker struggled as Bush's backup Week 6, gaining just 17 yards on eight carries. He also caught two passes for 10 yards. Running back Pierre Thomas has been active the past couple weeks due to the injury to running back Deuce McAllister (knee). If Stecker continues to struggle, the team could give Thomas a look in the backfield. Stecker will go against the Atlanta Falcons Week 7. He is a weak play for the game and should stay benched.

Graham - It wasn't an impressive starting debut for Graham, who earned just 29 yards on 13 carries and 17 receiving yards on six receptions. It was bad enough that the team traded for running back Michael Bennett (Chiefs) at the trade deadline Tuesday, Oct. 16. Graham will probably hang on to the starting job a little longer, but it is possible Bennett could become more of a factor in the offense if Graham continues to falter. Graham will go against the Detroit Lions Week 7. Graham is a strong play Week 6, but he is just worth using as a No. 3 fantasy running back.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Michael Jenkins	Atlanta Falcons	4	6.25 (10.46)	0.75 (8.02)	3.75	41.2	0.50
Roddy White	Atlanta Falcons	4	7.00 (11.72)	0.75 (8.02)	4.25	77.5	0.25
Marques Colston	New Orleans Saints	3	6.00 (8.37)	1.66 (13.51)	3.00	33.7	0.33
Joey Galloway	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	4.75 (9.39)	0.25 (3.15)	3.25	49.0	0.25
Ike Hilliard	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	6.75 (13.35)	0.50 (6.30)	5.25	65.8	0.00

Jenkins - Jenkins was able to catch just two passes for 23 yards Week 6 against the New York Giants. When Harrington struggles, he brings Jenkins down with him. During the two-game stretch where Harrington played well Week2 3 and 4, Jenkins caught a combined 12 receptions for 140 yards with two touchdowns. In the other four games, Jenkins has a total of six receptions for 53 yards. None of that will matter much now with Harrington at the helm, so keep an eye on the chemistry between the two. Jenkins will play the New Orleans Saints Week 7, where he is a strong play and worth using as a low-end No. 2 or a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

White - White caught four passes for 64 yards Week 6 against the New York Giants. White has been fairly consistent this year. Taking away Week 1, White has gained at least 55 yards in each game since Week 2. White will take on the New Orleans Saints Week 7. He is a strong play for the game and worth using as a No. 2 fantasy wide receiver.

Colston - It was a fairly disappointing game for Colston Week 6, even though the rest of the team's offense broke out. Colston was held to just one reception, a two-yard touchdown, on the week, while wide receivers David Patten and Lance Moore saw the majority of action in the passing game. Colston is just worth using as a low-end No. 3 or a Bye Week replacement Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons.

Galloway - Galloway finally found the end zone again, scoring on a 69-yard pass Week 6 against the Tennessee Titans. He finished the game with four receptions for 97 yards. He'll play the Detroit Lions Week 7. Galloway is a strong play Week 7 and worth using as a low-end No. 2 or a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

Hilliard - While Galloway struggled over the past couple of weeks, Hilliard was seeing the majority of opportunities from quarterback Jeff Garcia. Hilliard didn't have as many yards as Galloway Week 6, but he was also able to pull in four receptions. He gained 59 yards during the game. He will play the Detroit Lions Week 7, where he is a strong play. However, Hilliard's value is limited to that of a low-end No. 2 or a No. 3 fantasy wide receiver.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Alge Crumpler	Atlanta Falcons	4	5.00 (8.37)	1.5 (16.04)	3.00	27.5	0.25
Eric Johnson	New Orleans Saints	3	5.33 (7.44)	1.66 (13.51)	4.00	21.7	0.33
Alex Smith	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	4.25 (8.41)	0.75 (9.44)	2.50	16.2	0.50

Crumpler - As expected when quarterback Joey Harrington struggles, Crumpler struggles as well. Crumpler was held to just one catch for nine yards Week 6 against the New York Giants. It was the second consecutive game that Crumpler failed to reach at least 10 yards receiving. He will take on the New Orleans Saints Week 7. Crumpler is a weak play for the game and is a low-end No. 1 tight end or a Bye Week replacement for the game.

Johnson - Johnson caught just two passes for 12 yards Week 6, but one of the receptions was a 3-yard touchdown reception. Johnson is worth using as a low-end No. 1 tight end or a Bye Week replacement Week 7 against the Atlanta Falcons.

Smith - Smith (ankle) managed just one reception for 15 yards Week 6 against the Tennessee Titans. He was carted off the field in the fourth quarter of the game after suffering a severe ankle injury. X-rays were negative, but the team has not disclosed how badly Smith is hurt. The Buccaneers will play the Detroit Lions Week 7. He should probably stay benched as he could miss the Week 7 game.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Morten Andersen	Atlanta Falcons	4	1.50	1.50	2.25	3.00	8.2
Olindo Mare	New Orleans Saints	3	2.33	2.33	0.67	1.33	4.3
Matt Bryant	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	2.00	2.00	1.25	1.50	5.8

Andersen - Andersen was able to kick one field goal from 47 yards out Week 6, but he didn't quite have enough leg strength to pull off a 48-yard field goal attempt later in the game. Andersen is accurate enough, but he doesn't have the capability to consistently convert field goals from over 45 yards. For example, the missed field goal Week 6 would have been good if it wasn't from such a far distance. With punter Michael Koenen also on the roster, it is possible the team will keep Andersen sidelined for some of the longer field goal opportunities.

Mare - Mare didn't get a chance to kick any field goals Week 6, but he did convert all four of his extra point attempts. Mare will play the Atlanta Falcons Week 7, where he is just worth using as a Bye Week replacement.

Bryant - Bryant was able to convert both of his field goal opportunities Week 6, including a game-winning 43-yard field goal with 11 seconds left in the game. Bryant will play against the Detroit Lions Week 7. He is a weak play for the game, but he is worth using as a Bye Week replacement.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Atlanta Falcons	4	22.0	1.25	1.2	1.25	0.2
New Orleans Saints	3	19.3	1.00	2.0	0.33	0.3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	13.2	1.50	1.8	0.75	0.0

Falcons - The Falcons looked horrible against the New York Giants Week 6, allowing 31 offensive points during the game. The team did record two interceptions, a fumble recovery and one sack during the game. However, they allowed Giants quarterback Eli Manning to throw for 303 yards and the ground game to earn another 188 yards. The Falcons will play the New Orleans Saints Week 7, where their value is limited to just being a Bye Week replacement.

Saints - The Saints had a solid game against the Seattle Seahawks Week 6. They recorded five sacks, one interception and one fumble recovery during the game. However, they allowed 17 offensive points and 425 net yards, including 362 passing yards. The Saints will play the Atlanta Falcons Week 7. The New Orleans Saints are a weak play for the game, but they're still worth using as a Bye Week replacement if necessary.

Buccaneers - The Buccaneers held the Tennessee Titans to just 10 offensive points and 317 offensive yards during their Week 6 game. They finished with three sacks, two fumble recoveries and one interception. The Buccaneers will play the Detroit Lions Week 7, where they are a strong play and worth using as a No. 1 defense.

Author Bio

Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.