Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC South Fantasy Outlook

October 18, 2007 @ 15:33:57

By Joe Book
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 3-6, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts: He'll likely have Marvin Harrison (knee) back in the huddle and will be looking to avenge last year's bad loss at Jacksonville. The Jaguars defeated the Colts 44-17 in Week 14 last year, the only game in 2006 that Manning didn't record a touchdown pass. The 2007 version of the Jaguars defense has allowed 280.7 passing yards per game over the last month, so expect Manning to have another strong outing.
Running Back Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts: Addai missed the Colts' Week 5 victory against Tampa Bay, but he's expected to return to the lineup this week. He has suffered through a myriad of injuries while looking to become the featured running back that the team was lacking last season. Jacksonville is among the league's best against the run, allowing only 39.7 yards per game to the position over their last three games. Addai is a must-start every week, but he has an extremely weak play this week.
Running Back Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars: Jones-Drew earned a promotion to the top of the page after his breakout performance last week against Houston, where he piled up 184 total yards and two touchdowns. In two games last year, he torched the Colts for 316 total yards and three touchdowns, and he looks to pick up where he left off. The only concern here is fellow backfield-mate Fred Taylor, who steals carries from Jones-Drew. He's still an automatic starter, even against a Colts defense allowing only 84.7 yards per game to the position over the last month.
Wide Receiver Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts: Harrison (knee) is expected back in the lineup, after missing the Week 5 game, and most of the previous week with a sprained knee. Although he isn't posting "Marvin-like" numbers, he's always a threat to put up huge numbers, especially against a defense allowing 175.3 yards per game to the position over the last four weeks. Jacksonville has kept opponents out of the end zone but has given up many yards. Expect Harrison to rebound nicely from injury and poor production.
Wide Receiver Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts: While his yardage has suffered, Wayne has four touchdowns in five games this year and is Manning's primary target. Wayne has been running more underneath routes of late, but with Harrison's expected return, Wayne can look for more deep pattern calls. Jacksonville has allowed only one touchdown to wide receivers all season, so Wayne's fantasy production might come solely from yardage.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Matt Schaub	Houston Texans	4	276.5	0.50	1.00	9.0	0.00
David Garrard	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	197.7	1.33	0.00	29.0	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	3	147.0	0.67	1.67	18.0	0.00

Schaub - He's still posting good yardage numbers, but Schaub hasn't thrown a touchdown since Week 4, and has lost a fumble in each of the last three games. The Titans have forced quarterbacks to average 2.00 interceptions over the last four weeks. Houston ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing yardage, so Schaub hasn't had much help opening up the air attack. Schaub should only be used as a Bye week replacement this week with a very weak play.

Garrard - The opposite of Schaub, Garrard has been Mr. Consistent, throwing at least one touchdown in every game, with no interceptions for the season. He hasn't been flashy, and his running numbers haven't been impressive, but you know what to expect. The norm might be altered this week, as the Colts' defense has allowed only 177.3 passing yards per game over the last month, which ranks second in the NFL. Garrard is a low-end No. 1 quarterback this week at best.

Young - He left last week's game with a quadriceps injury, leaving his status for Week 7 unknown. Young hasn't tossed a touchdown since Week 3 and has only one rushing touchdown this season. His passing has become erratic, and he can't be trusted to lead a fantasy team every week. If Young plays this weekend in Houston, he shouldn't be playing for you.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	2	13.00 (10.29)	3.00 (13.50)	24.5	0.00	2.00	7.5	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	15.00 (22.85)	2.33 (13.41)	75.0	0.00	0.67	2.3	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	3	11.00 (17.02)	1.67 (23.87)	30.3	0.33	2.00	8.3	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	3	20.67 (31.98)	2.33 (33.42)	48.7	0.67	1.00	6.3	0.00

Green - In his first full game since Week 2, Green was completely ineffective, rushing for 44 yards and no touchdowns. He doesn't look to be fully recovered from the knee injury that kept him benched for two weeks. He was the workhorse last week, as fellow running back Ron Dayne was inactive for the game. Green is a starting running back, and therefore he's a No. 3 option this week, but has a weak play against an excellent Tennessee defense.

Taylor - Taylor (groin) wasn't expected to play but opened the game with a 75-yard run and was ineffective the rest of the day. He will likely suit up for the Jaguars' Week 7 battle with the Colts but isn't likely to receive more than a half-dozen carries. With running back Maurice Jones-Drew emerging as the top option on the team, Taylor shouldn't be counted on for much production. He shouldn't be in any fantasy lineups this weekend.

Brown - Brown is battling a sprained ankle, and his status for Week 7 is unknown. He only carried the ball five times last week, and has lost the lion's share of the work to LenDale White. The Texans haven't stopped the run of late, allowing 129.0 yards per game to the position over their last four contests, so if Brown suits up this weekend, he can be used as a No. 3 option with a strong play.

White - He carried the ball 25 times last week against an above average Tampa Bay defense and will likely get a majority of the carries on Sunday against Houston. If you are looking for huge yardage numbers, White isn't your guy. What he does offer is a running back that won't be pulled at the goal line, and that the team trusts to move the chains. He's improving every week and is a solid No. 2 option with a strong play this week.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Kevin Walter	Houston Texans	4	9.25 (14.64)	1.00 (9.00)	6.25	80.2	0.00
Andre' Davis	Houston Texans	4	6.50 (10.29)	1.00 (9.00)	4.00	74.0	0.25
Anthony Gonzalez	Indianapolis Colts	3	4.67 (7.00)	0.33 (2.12)	3.33	43.0	0.00
Dennis Northcutt	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	5.67 (8.63)	1.67 (9.58)	3.33	52.0	0.33
Reggie Williams	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	3.67 (5.58)	1.00 (5.75)	3.00	20.3	0.67
Roydell Williams	Tennessee Titans	3	5.67 (8.77)	0.67 (9.55)	3.33	33.3	0.00

Walter - Walter has been the primary beneficiary of wide receiver Andre Johnson's (knee) injury, emerging as a legitimate threat in the Houston offense. He set career highs with 12 receptions for 160 yards last week and seems to have a nice rapport with quarterback Matt Schaub. The Titans have allowed 152.7 yards to the position over the last month, so Walter could be primed for a solid follow-up. He's a No. 2 receiver with a weak play, but Walter is a big target who will likely be used in the red zone.

Davis - Davis hasn't lived up to huge expectations put on him as the 47th overall player drafted in 2002. He's played with four teams in the last four seasons and might have found a home in Houston. With wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee) not expected back this week, Davis could exploit double coverage on Kevin Walter and tight end Owen Daniels. He fumbled at the goal line last week but should hold onto the ball long enough to be a low-end No. 2 option this week with a weak play.

Gonzalez - He had a nice game filling in for injured wide receiver Marvin Harrison (knee) in Week 5, but with Harrison expected to play, Gonzalez returns to the bench. He showed some promise against Tampa Bay, catching seven passes for 71 yards, but hasn't exhibited any consistency to date. He should only be used as a Bye week replacement this week.

Northcutt - Northcutt failed to produce last week with a strong matchup, but he's still the No. 1 target of quarterback David Garrard, who completed passes to nine different players last week. Northcutt is the best deep threat on the team and could be used more in a vertical passing scheme. Since the Jaguars don't go deep often, he won't be a great producer. The Colts are among the league's stingiest pass defenses, allowing only nine receptions per game to the position in the last month. Northcutt is a low-end No. 3 receiver with a weak play.

Re. Williams - Williams nearly doubled his season totals with five catches for 38 yards last week. That's not usually a good sign, especially since he lost two fumbles to the Houston defense. No wide receiver with the Jacksonville offense will be a top producer, and Williams is only fourth on the team in receptions. He should be used as a Bye week replacement at the very most.

Ro. Williams - The speedy wide receiver had an excellent second half with four catches, but with the Tennessee offense sputtering, he's not an every-week player. Though Williams seems to have a good working relationship with quarterback Vince Young, his stock could improve if Kerry Collins is named the starter this week. Keep an eye on Williams, but he should remain benched this week.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	4	7.50 (11.87)	1.25 (11.25)	5.75	75.0	0.00
Dallas Clark	Indianapolis Colts	3	8.33 (12.49)	2.00 (12.75)	5.67	61.0	1.33
George Wrighster	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	1.33 (2.03)	0.33 (1.92)	1.00	4.0	0.33
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	3	4.33 (6.70)	0.67 (9.55)	2.33	24.7	0.33

Daniels - Daniels has been solid as the No. 1 target in the Houston offense, but he still hasn't scored a touchdown. His yardage has been consistent, but fantasy owners are impatient waiting for Daniels to score. This week will prove difficult, as the Titans have allowed only 16.7 yards and no touchdowns to the position over the last four weeks. Daniels is still a No. 1 tight end, but he has a very weak play.

Clark - Clark might join his teammates at the beginning of this article next week. He has scored in all but one game this season, and quarterback Peyton Manning has called his number often in the red zone. The Jaguars have allowed 73.0 yards per game to tight ends over the last month, and Clark should be able to take advantage of nagging injuries to the Jacksonville linebacker corps. He's a solid No. 1 tight end with a strong play this week.

Wrighster - Wrighster earned one more week on the report by catching a one-yard touchdown last week. If quarterback David Garrard begins to use Wrighster in the red zone, he could be worthy of a long-shot start. Until then, he should remain benched in all formats.

Scaife - Scaife is one of five Titans with 10 or more receptions this season, which doesn't bode well for Scaife owners. Defenses have been double-covering the big tight end to take away quarterback Vince Young's dump option. Houston hasn't allowed much to tight ends this season, so Scaife is only a low-end No. 1 or Bye week replacement.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	4	1.25	1.25	3.25	3.00	10.2
Adam Vinatieri	Indianapolis Colts	3	4.00	3.67	2.00	2.00	9.7
John Carney	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	3.00	2.67	2.33	1.67	7.7
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	3	2.33	2.33	2.00	1.33	6.3

Brown - Brown made three field goals last week against the Jaguars, the first field goals they have allowed since Week 1. He has proven to be an elite kicker, who should be in your lineup every week, regardless of matchup. Tennessee is allowing only 5.3 kicking points per game in the last month, but that didn't stop Brown last week. He's a solid No. 1 and should be used without hesitation.

Vinatieri - Vinatieri has missed only four of his last 40 field goals, but he hasn't attempted a kick of longer than 39 yards this season. Jacksonville allowed three field goals to Houston's Kris Brown last week, and Vinatieri can expect to get opportunities to score. He's a low-end No. 1 kicker this week.

Carney - The only major concern owners have with Carney is his power. He's 0-2 from beyond 37 yards this year and hasn't been given many opportunities for longer kicks. The Jaguars offense has struggled to score touchdowns, which should lead to more opportunities for Carney. He's a low-end No. 1 kicker this week.

Bironas - While he hasn't had many chances to score lately, Bironas faces the Houston Texans, who have allowed a league-high 11.5 kicking points per game over the last month. He's always a threat from 50 yards and beyond, and he's a No. 1 kicker this week with a strong play.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	4	26.5	0.25	1.2	0.75	0.2
Indianapolis Colts	3	17.3	1.33	1.7	0.33	0.0
Jacksonville Jaguars	3	12.7	1.00	2.0	1.00	0.3
Tennessee Titans	3	11.3	2.00	1.0	0.67	0.7

Texans - The Texans took a step backward last week, allowing more than 450 yards and 37 points to the previously struggling Jacksonville offense. They haven't been able to pressure quarterbacks, and they have allowed 140.5 rushing yards per game in the last month. Tennessee hasn't lit up the scoreboard, but Houston should still be benched this week.

Colts - Tony Dungy's defensive unit has performed well this year, allowing no more than 20 offensive points to any one opponent. Their last game was a complete domination of the Tampa Bay offense, in which the Bucs finished with 177 total yards, including just 17 rushing yards. They are a weak No. 1 defense against Jacksonville, who shredded the Houston defense last week and doesn't turn the ball over often.

Jaguars - The Jaguars defense has been a pleasant surprise this year, allowing only 12.7 offensive points per game over the last month. They aren't forcing many turnovers, but continue to stop the run, yielding 39.3 rushing yards per game in their last three contests. They have their hands full this week with the offensive juggernaut of the Colts, so despite their recent success, they should remain on your bench.

Titans - Houston's offense has stalled lately, and that's music to the ears of the Tennessee defense. They've allowed only 63.2 rushing yards per game this season, best in the NFL. They should be able to force quarterback Matt Schaub into several turnovers and are a strong play as a No. 1 defense this week.