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AFC East Fantasy Outlook

October 18, 2007 @ 15:32:58

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Herija C. Green

Note: All statistics appearing in this article are from Weeks 3-6, unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: In what was the biggest game of the regular season for the Patriots, Brady stepped up as he always seems to do to have his best game of the season last week against the Dallas Cowboys. Brady threw for a season high 388 yards and five touchdowns in keeping the Patriots undefeated. The Patriots have lost two of their last three against the Miami Dolphins with Brady throwing for only three scores and one interception. Despite his struggles against Miami, Brady remains a No. 1 fantasy quarterback.
Running Back Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins: Browns heads into this week's matchup against the Patriots with four consecutive 100-yard rushing performances. With all of Brown's success this season, he did struggle to run in the first two weeks against the Washington Redskins and Cowboys. The Patriots have allowed an average of 85 yards per game to opposing backs on the ground in the past month, better than both the Redskins and Cowboys. Brown may find it difficult to run against the stout Patriots defense but remains a No. 1 running back this week.
Wide Receiver Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Moss remains Brady's No. 1 target despite having not produced a 100-yard receiving game the past two weeks. In last week's matchup against Dallas, Moss found the end zone for a league-leading eighth time while tallying 59 yards on six catches. Miami's defense is susceptible to the run but has been solid in pass defense allowing just 8.5 receptions per game to opposing wideouts over the past four weeks. Moss should continue to be Brady's first option and remains a No. 1 wide receiver this week.
Wide Receiver Laveranues Coles, New York Jets: Coles was nowhere to be found last week making only one reception for 27 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles. It was his most unproductive game this season. This week's matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals should allow for Coles to get more involved. The Bengals are allowing an average of 173.3 yards per game to opposing receivers in the last month. Coles is a moderate No. 1 or solid No. 2 receiver this week.
New England Patriots Defensive/Special Teams: The Patriots allowed their most points this season against last week against Dallas, who was arguably their toughest competition to date. Despite giving up 27 points to the Cowboys, the Patriots defense was able to sack Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo twice and pick him off once. This week's matchup features an aggressive Patriots defense against Miami Dolphins quarterback Cleo Lemon, who is set to make his second consecutive start this week. The Patriots are a moderate No. 1 defense or Bye week fill-in.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Trent Edwards	Buffalo Bills	3	169.0	0.33	1.00	1.7	0.00
Cleo Lemon	Miami Dolphins	2	203.5	1.00	1.50	4.5	1.00
Chad Pennington	New York Jets	4	193.0	1.00	1.50	2.0	0.25

Edwards - Despite quarterback J.P. Losman (knee) being ready to return from injury, Edwards has been given the nod this week against the Baltimore Ravens who are known for bending opponents into submission. Edwards, who was drafted in the third-round this offseason, will likely face his toughest challenge as a quarterback. The Ravens dismantled a veteran backup in St. Louis Rams quarterback Gus Frerotte last week, forcing five interceptions. Edwards should remain on every fantasy bench this week.

Lemon - Lemon accounted for all four of Miami's touchdowns last week; throwing for two and rushing for two. His performance could be credited to his overall talent, or it could be attributed to the fact that the Dolphins played the Cleveland Browns. This week's matchup against New England should offer a truer test for Lemon. We expect the Dolphins to be down by a lot, which would likely cause Lemon to throw more. He is a low-end No. 1 quarterback option with a weak play this Sunday.

Pennington - Pennington was just horrendous last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Some of it could be attributed to the play calls, but he was flat out horrible. Pennington had his worst quarterback rating of the season (51.3) while completing just 11 passes for 128 yards and one interception. The Bengals secondary isn't as tough as Philly's, and we expect Pennington to bounce back. He is a weak No. 1 option or Bye week fill-in with a strong play.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Marshawn Lynch	Buffalo Bills	3	23.33 (42.09)	4.33 (59.42)	73.0	0.67	1.33	12.7	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	1	20.00 (6.87)	4.00 (5.40)	103.0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Sammy Morris	New England Patriots	4	17.50 (24.06)	4.75 (25.63)	69.8	0.50	1.00	6.0	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	4	20.50 (35.22)	3.25 (36.44)	77.8	0.00	1.75	11.5	0.00
Leon Washington	New York Jets	4	8.50 (14.60)	1.00 (11.21)	15.8	0.25	2.50	10.5	0.00

Lynch - Lynch continues to be a workhorse for the Bills, who also feature a rookie quarterback to the backfield. He continues to get his touches and looks, but he has yet to rush for over 100 yards. This week's matchup against the Ravens will likely be tough for both Lynch and Edwards. Lynch is a moderate No. 2 or solid No. 3 running back option this week.

Maroney - Maroney (groin) hasn't seen action since Week 3, missing the Patriots last three games. Maroney took the field last week in Dallas and was running sprints and catching balls before the game. The coaching staff determined at game-time that Maroney couldn't play. He has been running in practice this week, but he still appears unlikely to take the field this week. Monitor the situation leading up to kickoff.

Morris - Morris (chest) left in the first quarter of last week's game against the Cowboys after injuring the bone that connects the sternum to the clavicle in his chest. Morris has been ruled out for Week 7 and could miss up to a month. If both backs are out this week look for running backs Kevin Faulk and Heath Evans to see extended time this week.

Jones - Jones exploded early-on against the Eagles last week, but then leveled off in the second half to finish with a season-high 130 yards. Jones has still yet to find the end zone, but fantasy owners should be encouraged by how effective Jones was last week. This week's matchup against the Bengals is extremely favorable to both Jets' running backs. The Bengals are allowing an average of 125.3 rushing yards per game to opposing backs during the last month. Jones is a solid No. 2 running back option this week.

Washington - Washington saw his lowest amount of playing time since Week 2, touching the ball only three times last week against the Eagles. If the Jets continue to focus on Jones like they did last week, Washington will likely continue to get fewer carries this week. Washington should be looked at as an injury fill-in or remain on the bench.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	3	6.33 (11.43)	1.00 (13.71)	2.67	30.3	0.00
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	4	8.75 (15.03)	1.00 (11.21)	5.50	65.8	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	4	5.50 (7.56)	0.75 (4.05)	4.00	69.5	0.50
Wes Welker	New England Patriots	4	8.50 (11.69)	1.75 (9.44)	6.00	58.5	0.50
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	4	7.25 (12.30)	0.50 (4.74)	3.25	36.8	0.00

Evans - Evans' production continues to be low and is seemingly unaffected by the quarterback change from Losman to Edwards. Evans hauled in only one reception against the Cowboys in Week 5 and has a total of 12 receptions for 113 yards and no touchdowns for the season. Evans faces a tough Ravens defense this week that has shut down their last two opponents to a total of 10 points. However, their secondary has struggled at times, making Evans a moderate No. 3 wide receiver or Bye week replacement as a strong play this week.

Cotchery - Cotchery was Pennington's featured receiver last week against the Eagles, bringing in five receptions for 71 yards. His team-leading 35 receptions are bittersweet due to the fact that he has yet to score a touchdown. Cotchery has a favorable matchup this week against a weak Bengals secondary. He is a moderate No. 2 or solid No. 3 wide receiver option with a strong play this week.

Stallworth - Stallworth had his best game of the season last week against Dallas, hauling in seven receptions for 136 yards and a touchdown. His performance was due at least in part to the Cowboys trying to take away Moss. This week could be another favorable matchup against Miami, but one never knows with Brady spreading the ball around. Stallworth is a solid No. 2 wide receiver option this week.

Welker - Another receiver who had a field day against the Cowboys was Welker. He had a career-high 11 receptions for 124 yards and two touchdowns. Welker has been one of Brady's favorite receivers and last week's performance was just the cherry on top. Welker returns to Miami this week for the first time since the Dolphins traded him in the offseason to the Patriots. He is a solid No. 2 receiver option this week.

Booker - Booker takes over as the teams' No. 1 wide receiver after the Dolphins traded wide receiver Chris Chambers to the San Diego Chargers earlier this week. Booker is now second on the team in receptions behind Brown who has 20. His numbers should increase week-by-week now with Chambers out of the picture. This week is a touch matchup for the Dolphins, but Lemon has to throw the ball to someone. Booker is a moderate No. 3 or bye week fill-in.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	3	2.67 (4.81)	0.33 (4.57)	2.33	21.7	0.00
Chris Baker	New York Jets	4	3.25 (5.58)	0.75 (8.41)	2.25	23.0	0.25
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	4	3.50 (4.81)	1.00 (5.40)	2.75	41.0	0.75
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	4	3.00 (5.09)	1.00 (9.48)	2.25	16.8	0.50

Royal - Royal had his most productive game in Week 5 against the Cowboys, pulling-in four receptions for 34 yards. This week's matchup against Baltimore could create headaches for the offense and Royal could easily become an afterthought if they fall behind early. His lack of production and looks should keep him on fantasy benches.

Baker - In a game where Baker caught one more pass than Coles, he still only made two receptions for 12 yards last week against the Eagles. The Jets are towards the bottom of the league in passing, averaging 189 yards per game. This week's matchup against Cincinnati should create openings in the Jets' passing game. Baker is a moderate No. 1 or Bye week fill-in this week.

Watson - Watson (ankle) left last week's matchup against the Cowboys after suffering an ankle injury. His status at this time is unknown. If Watson can't go look for veteran tight end Kyle Brady to get extended work this Sunday.

Martin - Martin tied his season-high last week with three receptions for 18 yards. Martin is now the team's third-leading receiver with the trade of Chambers. This week's matchup is tough for Miami as they host the Patriots. Lemon should feel a lot of pressure from the Patriots defense, which could result in a lot of check-down passes. Martin is a moderate No. 1 or Bye week fill-in this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	3	2.00	2.00	1.00	0.67	4.0
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	4	2.25	2.25	2.00	1.25	6.0
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	4	4.75	4.75	1.75	1.75	10.0
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	4	2.25	2.25	2.00	2.00	8.2

Lindell - When Lindell has been called upon this season he hasn't come through for the Bills offense. He has attempted only five field goals while making three and continues to struggle at getting looks. Lindell should be seated firmly on every fantasy bench this week.

Nugent - Nugent is another kicker that has struggled this season making seven field goals in 11 attempts. His 63.6 field goal percentage is among the worst in the league. Nugent at best this week is a Bye week fill-in or a bench warmer.

Gostkowski - Gostkowski has filled in nicely for departed place kicker Adam Vinatieri (Indianapolis Colts), hitting on 90 percent of his attempts. Gostkowski should continue to get lots of attempts kicking for a Patriots offense that ranks No. 1 in the league. He is a solid No. 1 kicking option and a strong play this week in Miami.

Feely - Feely didn't see too big of a hit in his statistics last week with Lemon getting his first start of the season. Feely is perfect on the season knocking through all 12 of his field goals attempts and all 12 extra points. Feely is a marginal No. 1 kicking option with a weak play this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	3	25.7	2.33	0.7	0.67	1.0
New York Jets	4	22.5	1.00	1.5	0.50	0.7
Miami Dolphins	4	30.8	0.25	1.2	0.75	0.0

Bills - The Bills have been equally ineffective this season stopping both the run and pass. They are allowing an average of 406 net yards per game over the last four weeks; 104 yards on the ground and 304 through the air. The Bills have only mustered four sacks and continue to allow a lot of points. They had a huge game in Week 5, forcing six turnovers and scoring three defensive/special teams touchdowns, which skews their per game averages. This week the Bills defense could be considered a Bye week fill-in in needed.

Jets - The Jets are another team that has struggled to “just say no” when it comes to stopping the opponents offense. This week's matchup against quarterback Carson Palmer and the Bengals should be no different. The Jets are susceptible through the air, which happens to be the Bengals specialty. The Jets defense should remain grounded this week.

Dolphins - The Dolphins come off a shootout in which they allowed 41 points against the Browns. This week they face the Patriots who boast the No. 1 ranked offense and plenty of options in which they can score. The Dolphins need to remain of every fantasy bench this week.

Author Bio

Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.