With Baker in Tow, Can the Reds Improve?

October 17, 2007 @ 07:38:45

By Rob McCarthy
Edited by Ryan Dodson

As the coaching carousel slowly spins through the autumn air, its first stop in Cincinnati drops new Reds manager Dusty Baker on the bench of a franchise that hasn't won a World Series since their clean sweep of the Oakland Athletics in 1990. Plus, the team hasn't been to the playoffs since they were humiliated by the Atlanta Braves in the 1995 National League Championship Series.

The 58-year-old Californian brings a plethora of experience to a Reds franchise that was in dire need of a manager that was capable of producing at a high level; Baker is their fifth skipper since 2003. 

Granted, Baker hasn't brought home the gold in either of his stops with the San Francisco Giants (1993-2002) or Chicago Cubs (2003-06), but he has composed a resume throughout his 14-year career at the helm that includes a managerial record of 1,162-1,041 (.527 winning percentage), three NL Manager of the Year awards (1993, 1997, 2000), a World Series appearance with the Giants in 2002 and a 2003 Cubs team that came within five outs of their first World Series appearance since 1945. In addition, Baker has made a total of nine postseason appearances and is the all-time leader in San Francisco history with 840 managerial victories.

With the Reds coming off their seventh consecutive losing season, their longest such stretch since 1945-1955, Baker will have to turn around a team that is way too used to losing. Not to mention, Baker comes into a situation where the pitching staff is constructed out of a papier-mâché patchwork group that contains just one starter that posted an ERA below 4.00, that being Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Aaron Harang.

Baker's patience will be tested by a group of pitchers in Cincinnati that allowed opposing hitters to bat at a .282 clip over the entire 2007 season. The Reds also ranked 28th amongst major league pitching staffs with a team ERA of 4.94, 27th in hits allowed with 1,605 and 23rd amongst big league staffs with a team WHIP of 1.44.

On the offensive side of the ball, Baker inherits a Reds team that hit a combined .267 for the year, which positioned them 17th amongst major league franchises. In addition, he takes over a squad that ranked 14th in runs scored with 783, 17th in hits with 1,496 and third in home runs with 204.

Over his career, Baker has been labeled a pushover, a pitcher killer and an overpaid mediocre manager with the ability to single-handedly under manage even the simplest situation. His rumored history for overusing pitchers does not bode well for tender-minded arms like Cincinnati Reds starting pitchers Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey. 

For instance, from his days with the Boston Red Sox, Arroyo pitched consistently with the stresses of what the media was saying, the fans thought and most of all the rumblings of the front office. Plus, after going a sub-par 9-15 with 156 strikeouts, a 4.23 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP in 210 2/3 innings in 2007, the thought of Baker riding him like a carnival rollercoaster is a scary thing to think about. Expect Arroyo to have a year very similar to 2007, with the real possibility of being shopped around the July 31 trade deadline dancing in his head.

In 2007, Bailey went 4-2 with 28 strikeouts, 28 walks, a 5.76 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP in 45 1/3 innings. Coming into the 2008 campaign, expect the inexperienced Bailey to be handed the third spot in the rotation going into Spring Training. Baker will expect the 21-year-old, 205-pound Texas native to log close to a full 200-inning season and most likely the high pitch counts that Baker has been notorious for over his career. Expect Bailey to breakdown at some point during the season.

During his stops in San Francisco and Chicago, Baker was known for overworking various young arms that are now basically defunct notions in the back of their respective fan's minds. But, they will always be remembered.

For instance, former San Francisco Giants relief pitcher Robb Nen was supposedly a victim of Baker's unconscious trait. As most of you know, Nen is nowhere to be found. His rocket-like delivery landed him square in the repair shop where his 10 years of Major League Baseball service abruptly ended. However, the flame-throwing Nen did record four seasons with 40 or more saves and a career ERA of 2.98.

In Chicago, the prime examples would have to be Chicago Cubs pitchers Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Both had high-octane deliveries that were never tinkered with, but most successful pitchers don't ever have that done. We all know that Wood's demise began before Dusty strolled into town, but chances are his knack for getting the most out of his strong arms didn't help. But, who knows? Many cite the 2004 collision with former Atlanta Braves second baseman Marcus Giles as the demise of Prior.

One thing to consider in regards to Baker's history with pitchers is that during his stay in the Bay Area and Chicago, he was blessed with arms such as current Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Livan Hernandez, who is known for going deep into games with insane pitch counts. Hernandez logged 215-plus innings in his three full seasons under Baker. 

In Chicago, Baker had Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Carlos Zambrano. We all know Zambrano as a firecracker personality that strikes out opposing hitters at a scary rate. But, during Baker's stay in The Windy City from 2003 to 2006, Zambrano willingly logged 210-plus innings in each season.

Now, in Cincinnati, Baker has Harang at his disposal. Over the last three seasons, Harang has logged 210-plus innings annually and 230-plus innings consecutively over his last two campaigns. So once again, it looks like he has a workhorse to ride, let's just hope the reins don't snap on this one. 

Going into the 2008 campaign, the focus of the front office will be to sign Cincinnati Reds outfielder Adam Dunn to a long-term deal, and they have picked up Dunn's $13 million option for next year. Over his seven-year career, Dunn has hit a horrendous .248 with a mammoth 238 home runs, 572 RBI and 620 runs scored in 3,354 at-bats. Over his last four seasons, Dunn has been a lock to spank 40-plus home runs with exactly 40 per year in his last three campaigns. Now with Baker firmly in the mix, the threat of having a 6-foot-6, 275-pound, soon-to-be 28-year-old slugger fleeing for greener pastures must leave a murky feeling in the new manager's already churning stomach. 

Baker has never had a team that ranked near the top of the league in crucial offensive fantasy categories such as runs scored or stolen bases, his squads usually linger around the middle of the pack. The success of his winning teams was solely based on clutch performances, good defense and the comfort that each player had with their own abilities, a philosophy that Baker parlays into his managerial tactics. 

Baker's managerial style should fit just fine in a city where the same old thing happens every summer, which is the Reds being mediocre. There is no doubt that the players are going to play for Baker, which is exactly what he molds his philosophy around as a player-friendly manager. The Reds made a good choice with the addition of a manager whose main focus other than winning is honesty and integrity.

Now it's time to wait and see what kind of impact Baker's presence will have on top fantasy performers such as Cincinnati Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips, Dunn and Harang. Will he hurt their output? Will he increase their already productive playing styles, or develop new fantasy stars in Bailey and 24-year-old Cincinnati Reds first baseman Joey Votto? I guess we will see when the tarps are lifted in early April.

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Rob McCarthy
Rob has been with KFFL since 2007.

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