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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 6

October 12, 2007 @ 09:07:05

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players that aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterback - Strong Play

Daunte Culpepper, Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Culpepper	2	96.5	1.00	0.00	14.0	1.50
Chargers vs. Pos.	4	291.0	2.00	1.00	1.2	0.00

Culpepper made his first start in nearly a year in Week 4, leading the Raiders to victory over the Miami Dolphins and accounting for five touchdowns (three rushing, two passing) against his former club. He didn't air it out very often (five completions, 75 yards) but look for that to change this Sunday against a Chargers team that has proven itself vulnerable to aggressive passing attacks. Coming out of a Bye week, Culpepper is a weak No. 1 or Bye-week replacement option in Week 6.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Johnson	4	58.0	0.00	3.00	13.8	0.00
Bengals vs. Pos.	3	156.3	0.67	3.33	27.3	0.00

With apologies to St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson (groin), Johnson has arguably been the most disappointing player in fantasy football this year, and he doesn't even have an injury to blame for it. However, if ever there were an opportunity for LJ to get going again it would appear to be this week against a Cincinnati team he absolutely destroyed for 201 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17 of 2005. It may be tempting to bench Johnson after his 12-yard performance last week, but he has a great matchup and should be played as a strong No. 2 back this Sunday.

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
James	4	87.5	0.50	1.25	12.0	0.00
Panthers vs. Pos.	4	116.5	0.75	7.25	42.8	0.00

The Cardinals have done a nice job this season and much of the credit has to go to the play of James, who with the help of an improved offensive line has made Arizona's offense much less one-dimensional. Expect a heavy dose of "The Edge" in Week 6 against a Carolina defense that barely resembles the dominant unit they have been in the recent past. Play James as a solid No. 1 fantasy back this week.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Berrian	4	5.00	61.8	0.00
Vikings vs. Pos.	3	15.00	199.3	1.67

Berrian (toe) was shut down by Green Bay Packers cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson last Sunday night and was further limited by a toe injury that landed him on the sideline in the second half. This week against a Minnesota defense that excels at stopping the run and struggles to duplicate that success against the pass, Berrian could find himself as a major cog in the offense. He is a weak No. 2 or strong No. 3 option against the Vikings.

Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Curry	3	2.00	30.0	0.33
Chargers vs. Pos.	4	14.25	207.0	1.25

It seems like ages ago that Curry opened the 2007 season with 10 catches, 133 yards and a touchdown against the Detroit Lions. Since then his numbers have vacillated between decent and disastrous, bottoming out with Week 4's one-catch, 16-yard effort. He could be in line for another outing similar to Week 1 this Sunday against a suspect Chargers secondary that has been exploited frequently in 2007. Season your lineup with a little Curry in Week 6 as a shaky No. 2 or quality No. 3 selection.

Bobby Engram, Seattle Seahawks vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Engram	4	4.00	52.8	0.50
Saints vs. Pos.	3	7.67	145.7	1.33

With wide receivers D.J. Hackett (ankle) and Deion Branch (foot) both out for Week 6, more of the burden in the passing game falls to Engram. The veteran has always been counted among quarterback Matt Hasselbeck's most trusted targets, and he could be looking Engram's direction more often this Sunday versus a New Orleans defensive backfield that has been borderline awful this season. Engram is a solid No. 2 wideout in Week 6.

Tight End - Strong Play

Owen Daniels, Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Daniels	4	5.75	69.8	0.00
Jaguars vs. Pos.	3	4.67	61.7	0.33

Daniels has emerged as a borderline top-flight fantasy tight end this season, producing quality games week after week while helping to fill the void created by the loss of wide receivers Andre Johnson (knee) and Jacoby Jones (shoulder). Quarterback Matt Schaub may look his way early and often against a Jaguars defense that doesn't make life easy on opposing offenses, which means the Texans should aim to exploit any mismatches they can find. Play Daniels as a decent No. 1 tight end this week.

Place Kicker - Strong Play

Jay Feely, Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Feely	4	2.25	2.25	1.75	1.75	8.5
Browns vs. Pos.	4	2.75	2.25	3.25	3.25	10.0

Perhaps overlooked because of the team's brutal 0-5 start, Feely has actually played at a high level since Week 1, dipping below seven points in a game just once this season. He is coming off a season-high 13-point effort in Week 5, and he boasts the type of matchup that could have him close to repeating that Herculean effort this week. Start him with confidence as our top kicking option against the Browns.

Team Defense - Strong Play

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Vikings Def.	3	18.7	350.0	2.0	1.00	1.67
Bears Off.	4	21.0	266.5	3.5	2.25	0.50

After a brutal performance in Week 4, the Bears did a decent job of limiting their mistakes last Sunday and took advantage of the short fields their defense afforded them to put a respectable 27 points on the board. However, their overall performance over the past month shows a sloppy team that allows teams to pressure their quarterback, which is something the Vikings will certainly look to do in Week 6. With plenty of playmakers on defense, Minnesota ranks as an excellent starting unit this Sunday.

Quarterback - Weak Play

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Schaub	4	268.5	1.00	0.75	8.2	0.00
Jaguars vs. Pos.	3	233.7	0.67	0.67	0.3	0.00

Skeptics who thought Schaub couldn't thrive without Andre Johnson (knee) have been proven incorrect as the first-year starter has averaged over 300 yards passing over the last two weeks. However, he's walking into a hornet's nest (or Jaguars' den as it were) this week against a Jacksonville team that thrives on controlling the clock and playing stifling defense. He's still a low-end No. 1 quarterback or Bye-week replacement option, but you should see if there are better options out there.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Brian Leonard, St. Louis Rams at Baltimore Ravens

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Leonard	4	45.2	0.00	2.25	15.8	0.00
Ravens vs. Pos.	4	69.0	0.25	2.75	20.8	0.00

Leonard struggled to fill Steven Jackson's shoes when he made his first start in Week 4 (16 carries, 58 yards), but he did a nice job against an underrated Arizona run defense last week by eclipsing the century mark with 102 yards on 18 carries. This week don't be surprised to see Leonard look more like he did in Week 4 against a stout Baltimore run defense. So much so that he ranks only as a low Bye week fill-in for Week 6.

Cedric Benson, Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Benson	4	65.2	0.50	2.00	11.5	0.00
Vikings vs. Pos.	3	41.3	0.00	6.33	31.3	0.00

One could make the argument that Benson's inclusion on the weak play list is becoming a weekly occurrence, but we can assure you it only appears that way because he is doing such a poor job of moving the chains. The former first-round pick averaged just 2.4 yards per carry in Week 5, which marked the third time in five games he has registered a yards-per-carry average of less than three yards. He did reach the end zone, but don't expect a repeat of that against a Minnesota defense that hasn't yielded a touchdown to a running back over the last month. Benson rates as a low-end No. 3 fantasy back this week.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Galloway	4	3.25	58.5	0.50
Titans vs. Pos.	3	12.67	151.7	0.00

The speedy receiver has done next to nothing since the first two games of the season, totaling just nine receptions for 99 yards over his past three games combined. Don't look for this to be the week he gets back on track, either, as Tennessee has not allowed a touchdown to an opposing receiver in the last month. Plus, the Titans and Buccaneers both play a similar ball-control style of offense that looks to limit mistakes, which means there won't likely be a lot of room for Galloway to roam in the Tennessee secondary.

Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Curtis	3	5.67	90.0	1.00
Jets vs. Pos.	4	11.00	142.0	0.25

Curtis' 2007 season has consisted of one monstrous game (221 yards, three touchdowns) and three sub-par ones (102 yards, no touchdowns combined), which already makes his four-week averages a bit deceiving. The Eagles have a matchup coming out of the Bye against a Jets defense that has been extremely easy to run on, which is likely how Philadelphia will look to attack them given the shakiness of their own passing game this year. Still, speed kills in the NFL, and Curtis' deep ball ability makes him a low-end No. 1 or solid No. 2 receiver.

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jennings	3	3.67	69.3	1.00
Redskins vs. Pos.	3	11.33	110.7	0.33

It's been a great start to the 2007 season for Jennings as the second-year receiver has caught a touchdown in each of first three games this year, one of which was of the record-setting variety. He continues to have a lingering issue with his hamstring but it has not been keeping him off the field at game time. Jennings faces arguably his stiffest challenge to date in a Washington secondary that is full of first-round draft picks that are justifying their lofty selections with their play. He's still a No. 2 option, but don't be shocked if his touchdown streak comes to an end.

Tight End - Weak Play

Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Lee	4	3.75	42.0	0.25
Redskins vs. Pos.	3	3.33	36.7	0.00

Lee and tight end Bubba Franks have been an intricate part of the Packers passing attack, though their impact has been diminished over the past two weeks as neither has scored a touchdown. Lee is the starter and steadier producer, but he looks to have a tough task against the Redskins this Sunday. Over the past month Washington has yielded just 3.33 receptions and 36.7 yards per game to opposing tight ends while completely shutting them out of the end zone. Only play Lee as a weak No. 1 or Bye-week replacement in Week 6.

Place Kicker - Weak Play

Nick Folk, Dallas Cowboys vs. New England Patriots

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Folk	4	2.50	2.25	3.50	3.50	10.3
Patriots vs. Pos.	4	0.75	0.75	1.50	1.50	3.8

Folk had a monster game in Week 5, converting the game-winning field goal not once, but twice thanks to a last-second timeout by Buffalo Bills head coach Dick Jauron. For the day the rookie tallied 13 points, marking the third time in the last four weeks he has reached double digits. Despite his great work of late, Folk has an absolutely brutal matchup in Week 6 against an undefeated New England team that is keeping opposing offenses in check. Only play Folk as a weak No. 1 or Bye-week replacement versus the Pats.

Team Defense - Weak Play

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Texans Def.	4	24.0	326.0	1.8	0.50	0.50
Jaguars Off.	3	17.7	349.0	3.7	0.00	0.67

Houston's defense has been surprisingly solid at times this year, but they square off against a Jacksonville offense in Week 6 that is designed to dominate time of possession and avoid critical mistakes. The Texans will likely have a hard time forcing turnovers this Sunday considering the Jaguars have turned the ball over just twice in the last four weeks (three games). Keep the Texans defense benched this week.