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AFC North Fantasy Outlook

October 11, 2007 @ 14:15:51

By Richard Garcia
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Palmer returns from his Week 5 bye to face the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Palmer, who threw eight touchdowns the first two weeks of the season, has struggled of late, throwing only two touchdowns over his last two games while tripling his interception total to six. One of the bright spots for the Chiefs is their passing defense, allowing only 174 yards per game, good for fifth best in the NFL. On a side note, the Bengals are 0-3 after the Bye week with Palmer under center.
Wide Receiver Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: Johnson is another Bengals player that is feeling the teams' struggles affect his personal stats. The team's three consecutive losses have resulted in his receptions, yards and touchdowns decrease week-by-week. Johnson still remains the teams' playmaker, averaging 124 yards per game, including a 17.7-yard-per-catch average. Despite being the team's second-leading receiver, Johnson's home run threat warrants his spot in every fantasy lineup.
Wide Receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals: While Johnson has seen his numbers decrease over the past couple weeks, Houshmandzadeh has been making up for it; taking over as the team's leading wideout. He already has 39 receptions - 11 more than Johnson - and is off to his best start as a professional tying his career best with at least one touchdown in four consecutive games. Houshmandzadeh has averaged 121 yards and 11 receptions over the past two games and continues to benefit from Johnson's reputation as the team's best receiver.
Tight End Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: Heap (hamstring) missed last week's game against the San Francisco 49ers due a hamstring injury he suffered during the previous week against the Cleveland Browns. He is listed as questionable this week against the St. Louis Rams. Fantasy owners should keep their fingers crossed that Heap can play this week.
Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: There shouldn't be any doubt that Winslow (shoulder) will play this week versus the Miami Dolphins. Fantasy owners might be a little disappointed in Winslow after only four receptions and a season low 48 yards against the New England Patriots last week. But he was targeted a season-high 12 times by Quarterback Derek Anderson and caught his second touchdown of the season. Winslow remains the fourth best tight-end in fantasy.
Baltimore Ravens Defensive/Special Teams: The Ravens are coming off a dominating performance against the San Francisco 49ers allowing for only six first downs and 163 total yards. The number that pops out the most is they created only one turnover against Trent Dilfer, while recording three sacks. The Ravens will go up against another backup quarterback this week in Gus Frerotte. He is another immobile quarterback that the Ravens defense should feast on this week.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Steve McNair	Baltimore Ravens	3	239.7	0.67	0.33	8.7	0.00
Derek Anderson	Cleveland Browns	4	266.8	2.50	1.75	4.8	0.25

McNair - McNair (groin) is just a depressing option at quarterback. He has only muscled up two touchdown passes in four starts, one less than Gus Frerotte, who started his first game with the Rams last week. McNair could possibly see the return of his second-favorite target in Todd Heap, who missed last week with a hamstring injury, but even then he has to make owners cringe as they plug him in during this critical Bye week.

Anderson - Despite a quarterback rating that rivals Mr. McNair and an almost league worst eight interceptions, Anderson is third in the NFL with 11 touchdown passes; surpassing the likes of Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer. This week he faces Miami, who mirrors New England in at least one category, passing defense. They are allowing 172 yards per game good for third in the NFL. Anderson was still able to throw for 287 yards and two touchdowns against the Patriots. He is a moderate No. 1 quarterback especially during this Bye week.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Willis McGahee	Baltimore Ravens	4	25.00 (33.52)	4.25 (37.41)	96.8	0.00	3.75	27.2	0.25
Rudi Johnson	Cincinnati Bengals	2	23.50 (21.70)	3.00 (25.75)	63.5	0.00	2.50	33.0	0.50
Kenny Watson	Cincinnati Bengals	3	9.33 (12.93)	1.00 (12.88)	38.3	0.33	1.33	3.30	0.00
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	4	17.50 (31.65)	2.50 (33.56)	86.5	0.50	0.50	5.5	0.00

McGahee - McGahee comes into this week's matchup with the St. Louis Rams putting up back-to-back 136-yard performances, both through the ground and air. The disappointing stat is that he has no rushing touchdowns and one touchdown via reception. The Rams have struggled in several different areas, none greater than their 146 rushing yards against. McGahee is a solid No. 1 running back this week and should finally find the end zone.

Johnson - Johnson (hamstring) has yet to practice up to this point and may or may not play this week. While we all wait for the more than likely game-time decision to come, we are just left to speculate. In Johnson's last start he was ineffective before leaving due to the hamstring injury, rushing for nine yards on 17 carries. The Kansas City Chiefs defense has some pop and shouldn't be expected to roll over for Johnson. In three career games against the Chiefs he has only one touchdown.

Watson - Watson should be expected to see more time this week whether or not Rudi Johnson suits up. Owners who handcuffed the two, or merely picked him up after the Johnson injury, should be happy with his performance before the Bye week. The Bengals had to abandon the run early after falling behind to the New England Patriots, which limited Watson's chances. But nevertheless, he was impressive running for 55 yards on 13 carries including breaking one for 16 yards. Depending on Johnson's status, Watson could fill-in nicely as a No. 2 option.

Lewis - Fantasy owners have to be pulling their hair out screaming, "Why Lewis, and why this week." Lewis is questionable and if he is cleared to play, he will go up against a Miami Dolphins defense that is allowing 174 yards rushing per game. Lewis left after he sprained his right foot on Cleveland's first offensive play against New England on Sunday. The team is awaiting MRI results, and coach Romeo Crennel said on Monday that X-rays on Lewis' foot were negative.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Mark Clayton	Baltimore Ravens	4	4.75 (6.37)	0.75 (6.60)	2.50	20.2	0.00
Derrick Mason	Baltimore Ravens	4	13.00 (17.43)	2.00 (17.60)	9.25	74.0	0.25
Braylon Edwards	Cleveland Browns	4	9.00 (16.28)	1.25 (16.78)	5.25	109.0	1.00
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	4	4.25 (7.69)	1.00 (13.42)	2.50	25.8	0.75

Clayton - What a difference a season makes. Clayton, who had a breakout season after becoming McNair's No. 1 option in the passing game last season, has seemingly fallen off the radar. Being treated like he kicked McNair's dog, Clayton has only 10 receptions in five games for 81 yards and zero touchdowns. His one-catch performance against the San Francisco 49ers is all we can take. Sit him until he and McNair can make nice.

Mason - On the flipside is Mason, who has emerged, again, as McNair's No. 1 option. Playing like the good old days in Tennessee, Mason is second in fantasy with 12.6 looks on average per week while leading the NFL in receptions with 44. Mason is without a reception longer than 18 yards and has one touchdown. With receiving touchdowns being few and far between in Baltimore, Mason is a solid No. 3 wide receiver this week.

Edwards - Edwards solidified his No. 1 wide receiver status last week against the New England Patriots gaining 110 yards on six receptions. Though he failed to hit paydirt for only the second time in five games, Edwards continues to carry a 20.2 yards per catch average and is the only player to do so with 20 or more receptions.

Jurevicius - Jurevicius (knee) is questionable for this week's matchup against the Miami Dolphins after X-ray's came back negative. He's averaging 2.4 catches and 26.4 yards a game, but what gives him value is his three touchdowns. His lack of consistency and looks need to keep him on the bench.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Reggie Kelly	Cincinnati Bengals	3	2.33 (3.23)	0.33 (4.29)	1.33	17.7	0.00

Kelly - One would think that a tight end in a high flying offense like the Bengals would get a bigger piece of the pie. But at this point Kelly, who is the teams' leading receiver at tight end, has only five receptions for 66 yards. The bright side is that he is coming off his best game of the season; two catches for 41 yards. Keep Kelly on the bench or on waivers where he belongs.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Matt Stover	Baltimore Ravens	4	1.25	1.25	3.50	2.75	9.5
Shayne Graham	Cincinnati Bengals	3	2.67	2.67	1.67	1.67	7.7
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	4	3.50	3.50	2.00	1.75	8.8

Stover - Stover is fourth in scoring with 46 points and leads the NFL in field goal attempts with 16. His 81.3 field goal percentage is due to his three misses from 40-49 yards out. At 39 years old he lacks the powerful leg to knock them in consistently from that distance and beyond. Despite that he continues to get his opportunities and make the most of them. He is a solid No. 1 kicking option at home this week against St. Louis.

Graham - Graham's 30 points is good for 19th in the league, and he's attempting only 1.67 field goals per game. More than half the league has more attempts and points than Graham at this point. His No. 1 status should be demoted to bench status until he can garner more opportunities.

Dawson - Dawson has outscored players like Graham due to the Browns scoring the fifth-most points in the NFL (126). Dawson hit only a 42-yard field goal against the New England Patriots last week. His attempts are scarce due to the Browns finding the end zone more this season. Dawson is a moderate No. 1 during this Bye week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Bengals	3	36.3	1.33	0.7	0.00	0.0
Browns	4	28.0	0.75	0.8	1.00	0.0

Bengals - The "Bungles" come off their Bye week no longer the worst defensive team in the NFL. It seems they were able to accomplish something with their time off. This team defensively is awful right now. They are being outscored by their opponents 32-27 on the year; allowing 403 yards per game - 251 yards through the air and 152 on the ground. The defense has scored only 17 fantasy points - third worst in fantasy - and should remain on the bench.

Browns - Another team that should remain on the bench is the Browns. They are the second-worst defensive team in fantasy with only 14 points scored and have tallied only three interceptions and four sacks through five games. Their 424.4 yards per game and 267 passing yards allowed per game is good for 31st in the league. They are horrible and need to be kept far away from fantasy rosters.

Author Bio

Richard Garcia
Garcia served as a managing editor for KFFL. Prior to his time with KFFL, Richard worked in managerial roles with both Frito-Lay Inc. and UPS. He received his Bachelor of Science degree in public relations from California State Polytechnic University-Pomona and fulfilled his internship requirements with the Los Angeles Kings Hockey organization in 2001.