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AFC West Fantasy Outlook

October 11, 2007 @ 14:15:49

By Ken Jager
Edited by Herija C. Green

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson, one of the season's biggest disappointments, had just 12 yards on nine carries in Week 5 against a resurgent Jacksonville Jaguars run defense. The Chiefs offense didn't have many chances to begin with anyway, in possession of the ball for just 23:17. Johnson gets a dream opponent for Week 6, at home against the soft Cincinnati Bengals run defense, which has given up 156.3 yards per game the last four weeks and tied for the league's worst yards per carry average (5.3) this season. Johnson is a strong play as a result.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: Tomlinson compiled 140 total yards (67 rushing, 73 receiving), but no touchdowns, in Week 5's blowout win over the Denver Broncos. Even though San Diego had a season-high 37 rushing attempts (21 for Tomlinson), he could have had a more productive day if the team didn't rest him as much in the second half when the Chargers put the game away. Tomlinson will surely be licking his chops against the Oakland Raiders' run defense in Week 6 (5.3 yards per carry average, tied for the league's worst with Cincinnati), and he is a strong play.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates had a big game in Week 5 with seven catches for 113 yards and a touchdown, and now is third in the league in receiving yards with 489. He has three touchdowns receptions on the season. The Chargers offense appears to be on track, and Gates is a solid No. 1 play this week versus the Bye-week rested but weak-performing Raiders front-seven, which gave up a touchdown to Miami Dolphins tight end Justin Peele in Week 4.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez reached the century-mark for the first time this season with an eight catch, 100-yard performance in Week 5's 17-7 loss to the Jaguars. His total was more than a third of the Chiefs' 270 yards of total offense. Gonzalez should have another solid game this week as he faces an average Bengals defense against tight ends (51.7 yards and 0.33 touchdowns per game).

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Damon Huard	Kansas City Chiefs	4	215.2	1.00	1.00	0.5	0.00
Daunte Culpepper	Oakland Raiders	2	96.5	1.00	0.00	14.0	1.50
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	4	241.5	1.75	1.25	0.5	0.25

Huard - Huard (shoulder) was knocked out of Week 5 in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury, but his MRI results this week were negative. Chiefs head coach Herman Edwards said that Huard would go in Week 6 if he felt OK and all signs indicate he should be ready to go this Sunday. Regardless of his status, Huard has been less than flashy this season and is a weak play despite facing a soft Cincinnati pass defense. Keep him benched.

Culpepper - Coming off a Bye week, Culpepper retains the starting job over the injured Josh McCown (foot) after being responsible for five touchdowns (two passing, three rushing) in Week 4. Look for Culpepper to have more opportunities passing the ball in Week 6 versus the San Diego defense, which has allowed 291.0 yards and 2.00 touchdowns per game. He is a strong play this week as a low-end No. 1 or Bye week replacement.

Rivers - Rivers had a near perfect game for a quarterback in Week 5, going 13-for-18 for 270 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for one touchdown and didn't commit a turnover for the first time this season. With the Chargers focusing more on the running game and having limited receiving targets, Rivers is a weak play in Week 6 versus division-rival Oakland, but he is worth leaving in as your No. 1 quarterback.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
LaMont Jordan	Oakland Raiders	3	24.67 (39.11)	3.00 (29.89)	118.0	0.33	1.00	13.0	0.00
Dominic Rhodes	Oakland Raiders	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Justin Fargas	Oakland Raiders	3	13.33 (21.14)	2.33 (23.24)	80.7	0.00	0.33	2.3	0.00
Michael Turner	San Diego Chargers	4	4.75 (7.64)	0.00 (0.00)	40.0	0.25	0.50	3.5	0.00

Jordan - It doesn't look good for Jordan (back), who missed the second half of Week 5's game after gaining 74 yards on 15 carries. His status is currently unknown for Week 6 and this is a situation to keep an eye on as Jordan has played so well he’d need to be in your lineup if he gets the green light for Sunday. If he does sit this week, expect Rhodes and Fargas to share the load.

Rhodes - Rhodes is set to make his 2007 debut following his four-game league suspension. If he's still available in your league, pick him up and stash him away as his long-term potential is slightly higher with Jordan's injury. If Jordan is out for Week 6, he'll likely split time with Fargas. If not, look for him to still get some touches as he works his way back into game shape. His value is higher than Fargas based on breakout potential, but is currently a Bye week replacement option this week at San Diego.

Fargas - Filling in for the injured Jordan, Fargas ripped off 179 yards on 22 carries in Week 4. Overall, Fargas has seen a decent number of plays as Jordan's backup, but he has yet to reach the end zone this season. As previously noted, he will likely split time with Rhodes this week if Jordan is inactive. Keep Fargas on the pine this week.

Turner - Turner took full advantage of his mop up time in the Chargers' 41-3 rout over Denver, rushing for 147 yards on just 10 carries, including a 74-yard touchdown scamper in the fourth quarter. His effort earned him a FedEx Ground Player of the Week nomination. As Tomlinson and the rest of the San Diego offense is getting on track, he could see more playing time in similar situations. But he's still behind LT and should be benched this week versus Oakland.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Eddie Kennison	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1.00 (0.43)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.00	0.00
Samie Parker	Kansas City Chiefs	4	2.50 (4.32)	0.50 (10.04)	1.50	17.5	0.25
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	4	7.00 (12.09)	1.00 (20.08)	4.75	81.8	0.75
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	3	5.33 (8.46)	1.00 (9.96)	1.67	39.3	1.00
Ronald Curry	Oakland Raiders	3	4.67 (7.40)	0.67 (6.64)	2.00	30.0	0.33
Vincent Jackson	San Diego Chargers	4	6.50 (10.46)	0.75 (7.64)	4.00	71.8	0.50

Kennison - Kennison (hamstring) aggravated his hamstring injury in Week 5 and is unlikely to play in Week 6. Kennison is having a tough time overcoming injury so far this season so don't expect him to make much of an impact in the coming weeks, especially with Bowe handling the load nicely.

Parker - Parker was targeted only three times in Week 5's loss to Jacksonville, catching two passes for 28 yards and the team's only touchdown as time expired. Teammates Bowe and wide receiver Jeff Webb were targeted more than Parker and that trend will likely continue, even with Kennison out. Parker is a weak play this week, but he could serve as a weak No. 3 or Bye week replacement in deeper leagues.

Bowe - Bowe reeled in four catches for 70 yards in an offense that gained only 271 yards in Week 5, and he was targeted in nearly half the wide receivers' plays. No matter who starts at quarterback this week, Bowe should get his chances and is a strong play as a No. 1 receiver at home versus a soft Cincinnati defense.

Porter - Porter's utilization numbers continue to steadily rise, but that's not saying much for a wide receiver group that has only combined for 25 receptions, 402 yards and five touchdowns on the season. Porter caught three passes for 52 of the teams' 75 receiving yards in Week 4, but he did collect two touchdowns. That said, Porter is a strong play this week versus a sluggish San Diego defense and is a good No. 2 option on your team.

Curry - Curry's numbers have taken a big hit since his monster game in Week 1, and the combination Oakland’s running game being so effective along with Porter's increase in looks, have made his value continue to decline. Regardless, he's a strong play this week against that Charger defense and is a good option as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver.

Jackson - The Chargers were in control from the beginning of their game in Week 5, so they didn't need to go to the air often. But Jackson did collect three receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. He was the only Chargers' wide receiver to collect any passes, with the only other two players to catch passes being Gates and Tomlinson. Jackson is a viable No. 2 play this week at home versus Oakland.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	3	2.33 (3.70)	0.00 (0.00)	1.33	10.3	0.00

Miller - Miller had a goose egg in Week 4 with no catches. Given the strength of the Oakland running game, two solid wide receiver options and a quarterback that doesn't pass much, Miller's fantasy value is next to nothing. He is a weak play this weak, and unless you elect to replace him with a better producing tight end from the waiver wire, glue him to your bench.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Dave Rayner	Kansas City Chiefs	4	1.50	1.50	2.00	1.50	6.0
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	3	2.67	2.67	2.00	1.67	7.7
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	4	2.75	2.75	1.50	1.50	7.2

Rayner - Rayner missed his first field goal of the season, his only attempt in Week 5, but still has been the most consistent player on an underachieving Kansas City offense. Until the Chiefs offense can find ways to move the ball and get into scoring distance, Rayner's value remains low. He is a weak play against the Bengals and best left on your bench.

Janikowski - Janikowski did not have a field goal attempt in Week 4 and connected on all of his five extra-point tries. Coming off a Bye week, he should have more chances with the upstart Raiders offense versus San Diego and is a solid No. 1 play this week.

Kaeding - Kaeding was perfect in Week 5 with two field goals (26 and 45 yards) and five extra-point conversions. With the Chargers' offense rolling, Kaeding is seeing his value increase. His potential this week versus Oakland makes him a weak No. 1 or decent candidate as a Bye replacement, but not enough to insert him permanently just yet.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Chiefs	4	14.2	1.00	3.2	1.00	0.2
Raiders	3	19.3	2.00	1.7	0.00	0.3
Chargers	4	22.5	1.00	1.8	0.75	0.2

Chiefs - If it weren't for the stagnant Kansas City offense, the Chiefs could easily have a better record thanks to the way the defense is performing. They rank sixth in the NFL for points allowed (14.2) during the past four weeks, easily tops in their division. At home versus Cincinnati this week, the Kansas City defensive unit is a strong play as a No. 1 or Bye-week replacement.

Raiders - The Raiders defense is rested coming off a Bye week following a formidable performance against the Miami Dolphins in Week 4, shutting down the passing game despite continuing to struggle against the run. Their Week 6 opponent, division rival San Diego, doesn't have many receiving targets outside of Gates and Jackson, so expect a similar performance. Oakland is a strong play as a No. 1 or a Bye-week replacement.

Chargers - The Chargers defense is coming off an impressive performance in Week 5, holding Denver to just a field goal. It also collected one sack, one interception and had a fumble return for a touchdown. San Diego faces division rival Oakland, who may be without their starting running back, with a passing game is nothing to speak about. San Diego is a strong play at home as a No. 1 or Bye-week replacement.