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AFC South Fantasy Outlook

October 11, 2007 @ 14:15:46

By Joe Book
Edited by Herija C. Green

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Matt Schaub	Houston Texans	4	268.5	1.00	0.75	8.2	0.00
David Garrard	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	214.7	1.00	0.00	27.0	0.00
Vince Young	Tennessee Titans	3	168.3	1.00	1.33	33.7	0.00

Schaub - Admit it. When the Texans ended the era of quarterback David Carr (Carolina Panthers) and traded for Schaub, I wasn’t the only one that questioned move, was I? Schaub has proven me and a lot of other people wrong by posting good passing numbers against solid defenses. He’s been in the same flow all year, but he’ll face another tough defense this week with the Jaguars, who have allowed only two passing touchdowns all season. Schaub is a weak No. 1 or Bye week replacement with a weak play.

Garrard - Garrard had his most efficient passing game last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, completing 74.1 percent of his passes for 218 yards. He hasn’t thrown an interception all year and has become an excellent running threat. Week 6 brings the Texans, who have allowed 242.0 yards per game to quarterbacks over the last month. Garrard is a low-end No. 1 quarterback or Bye week replacement this week, but better options are out there.

Young - Young had a terrible performance against the Atlanta Falcons, throwing three interceptions and totaling only 157 passing yards. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have defended the pass well, allowing only 196.0 yards per game over their last four contests. If Young can utilize his legs early, it could open up the passing lanes in the second half. He’s still a very weak No. 1 quarterback or Bye week replacement this week, and should be on your bench if at all possible.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Ahman Green	Houston Texans	2	10.50 (8.85)	1.50 (8.14)	38.0	0.50	1.00	5.5	0.00
Ron Dayne	Houston Texans	3	18.33 (23.18)	3.67 (29.84)	48.7	0.33	1.33	9.0	0.00
Fred Taylor	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	17.67 (27.18)	2.33 (16.64)	63.7	0.00	0.67	6.7	0.00
Maurice Jones-Drew	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	14.00 (21.54)	5.33 (38.03)	50.0	0.33	2.00	19.3	0.00
Chris Brown	Tennessee Titans	3	13.67 (22.63)	2.67 (25.79)	33.3	0.33	2.33	9.0	0.00
LenDale White	Tennessee Titans	3	15.33 (25.39)	3.33 (32.23)	48.7	0.67	0.33	3.3	0.00

Green - Green (knee) sat out last week’s game against the NFL’s worst run defense in the Miami Dolphins, and now travels to Jacksonville to face the stingy run-stopping Jaguars, who have allowed only 46.7 yards per game to running backs since a dismal Week 1 performance. Green is expected to return this week, but with a brutal matchup and a timeshare situation with Dayne, he shouldn’t be more than a No. 3 running back if he plays.

Dayne - The thunderous running back didn’t take advantage of having the lead role last week against Miami, rushing for only 40 yards. He did score a touchdown, but owners expecting a breakout game in Green’s absence had to be disappointed. With Green expected to be back in the lineup, the Houston backfield picture becomes muddled again. Expect Dayne to get his 12-15 carries per game, but use him as nothing other than a No. 3 running back this week with a weak play.

Taylor - Although not spectacular, Taylor gave you “Fred Taylor” numbers last week, averaging 3.2 yards on 16 carries and not smelling pay dirt. That’s the production that he will likely offer all season, seemingly regardless of the matchup. The Houston run defense has improved, allowing only 87.5 yards per game to the position over the last four weeks. Splitting time with Jones-Drew doesn’t hurt his situation; he just doesn’t seem to be what he used to be. Use Taylor as a No. 3 running back this week, and expect more of the same.

Jones-Drew - Jones-Drew showed glimpses of the 2006 season by compiling 112 yards on only 12 touches last week, but why only 12 touches? The Jaguars seemed to use Taylor to move the chains, and he was moderately effective. Since they’ll likely continue to split time, Jones-Drew can only be considered a No. 2 running back this week.

Brown - Brown has completely disappeared, averaging only 33.0 yards per game since his Week 1 explosion. Fellow back White seems to be demanding more attention in the red zone, and is stealing touches from Brown. The Titans travel to Tampa Bay this week to face a Buccaneers team with a below average run defense. Even with a strong play, Brown is only a No. 3 or Bye week replacement this week.

White - While White hasn’t been overly impressive, he has been getting more work of late than Brown. Neither will likely become a fantasy superstar, and they may both suffer from each other’s presence. White is the better fantasy back at this time, as his carries continue to increase. He’s been the preferred red zone back for the Titans, and the team has been using him late in games to wear out opposing defenses. Although he offers no receiving incentive, he’s a solid No. 2 running back with a strong play this week against the Buccaneers.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Dennis Northcutt	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	5.67 (8.72)	1.00 (7.13)	3.67	61.7	0.33
Ernest Wilford	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	1.67 (2.56)	0.00 (0.00)	1.33	18.3	0.00
Eric Moulds	Tennessee Titans	3	4.00 (6.62)	0.33 (3.22)	2.67	23.0	0.00
Brandon Jones	Tennessee Titans	3	6.00 (9.93)	1.33 (12.89)	4.00	55.3	0.00

Northcutt - He finally found the end zone last week and has emerged as Garrard’s favorite target. Northcutt is the only Jaguars receiver who has consistently found himself open, and Garrard has rewarded him with 5.67 targets per game. Jacksonville faces Houston in Week 6, making Northcutt a solid No. 2 with a strong play. If he isn’t on your roster, he’s still cheap enough to buy now and reap benefits for the rest of the year.

Wilford - Is this the same player that averaged 16.6 yards per catch and scored seven touchdowns in 2005? Wilford has completely fallen off the map in Jacksonville, and with only six receptions this season, he doesn’t look like he’s going to turn it around anytime soon. He should remain benched this week against the Texans.

Moulds - Moulds set his season high in receptions and yards last week, which usually would spawn enthusiasm. However, when your season highs are four catches and 31 yards, the balloon deflates. Moulds has a bad matchup this week against a very good Tampa Bay pass defense, and he should only be used in the most calamitous Bye week replacement situation imaginable.

Jones - He has developed a mysterious knee injury that might keep him out of the Week 6 battle against the Buccaneers. It’s a horrible matchup anyway, but Jones (knee) is leading the team in receiving. If he plays, use him only as a No. 3 receiver with an extremely weak play. If not, wide receiver Roydell Williams could fill the same role.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Owen Daniels	Houston Texans	4	7.00 (11.80)	0.50 (5.43)	5.75	69.8	0.00
George Wrighster	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	1.33 (2.05)	0.33 (2.38)	1.00	9.7	0.00
Bo Scaife	Tennessee Titans	3	4.00 (6.62)	1.00 (9.67)	1.67	12.3	0.33

Daniels - Daniels has stepped up his game in the absence of wide receiver Andre Johnson (knee) and looks to continue his progress this week against a Jacksonville defensive squad allowing 61.7 yards per game to the position over the last four weeks. He’s been as hot as any tight end in the league, but can’t seem to find the end zone. Schaub seems to have complete confidence in him between the 20s, and that should eventually translate to red zone looks. Daniels is a solid No. 1 tight end with a strong play this week.

Wrighster - No catches last week. He’s being outperformed by tight end Greg Estandia (who?) and seven other Jaguars who have more catches than Wrightster. Translation: if he’s on your team, cut him.

Scaife - Scaife is a talented tight end, but he hasn’t been posting even adequate fantasy numbers over the last month. Scaife is a fantasy backup at this point, but could be worthy of a bench spot in deeper leagues.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Kris Brown	Houston Texans	4	2.25	2.25	3.00	2.75	10.5
John Carney	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	1.67	1.67	2.33	2.00	7.7
Rob Bironas	Tennessee Titans	3	2.67	2.67	2.33	1.67	7.7

Brown - Welcome to the national stage, Mr. Brown. Despite a left foot injury, Brown made all five of his field goal attempts, including three from beyond 50 yards, last week against the Dolphins. That being said, the Jaguars haven’t allowed a field goal since Week 1, and lead the NFL with an anemic 1.3 kicking points allowed per game average over the last month. Play Brown at your own risk as a low-end No. 1 or Bye week replacement with a weak play in Week 6.

Carney - Even though he is 43 years young and has attempted only two field goals from beyond 27 yards this season, Carney is a solid fantasy kicker. The Jaguars offense can’t seem to produce in the red zone and the Texans are allowing 10.5 points per game to kickers, second-worst in the NFL. Carney is as solid as it gets this week, and is a No. 1 with an extremely strong play.

Bironas - The Titans offense has struggled of late, but Bironas is still getting opportunities, averaging 2.33 field goal attempts per game. He’s always a threat to give bonus points for a 55-yarder but hasn’t made a field goal past 40 yards this year. He’s a weak No. 1 or Bye week replacement this week against Tampa Bay and probably should be on your bench.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Houston Texans	4	24.0	0.50	1.8	0.50	0.5
Jacksonville Jaguars	3	9.3	0.67	3.7	0.67	0.0
Tennessee Titans	3	14.3	2.33	1.7	0.33	0.7

Texans - Houston’s defense is much improved from a year ago but still not among the upper echelon. They give up too many big plays and with cornerback Will Demps (elbow) suffering a dislocated elbow, the secondary could be in for a long week. Houston is not a fantasy starter this week, even though the Jaguars have had problems scoring.

Jaguars - This unit has come together to stop some solid offenses and post big fantasy numbers in the process. They’ve allowed only 9.3 points per game, and registered 11 sacks in their last three games. Other than two games against the Indianapolis Colts, they could be an every-week defense. Jacksonville is a solid No. 1 defense this week with a strong play.

Titans - The numbers look appetizing, and the schedule is soft, but the Titans may not have enough defensive firepower to continue their excellent run. They face a solid Tampa Bay offense, that despite losing running back Cadillac Williams (knee) for the season, has ample ammunition to test the Titans’ defense. Tennessee should be riding the fantasy pine with a weak play this week.