Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 5

October 5, 2007 @ 10:24:54

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players that aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterback - Strong Play

Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Campbell	3	207.0	0.67	1.00	26.7	0.00
Lions vs. Pos.	4	293.0	2.00	2.25	8.0	0.25

The third-year quarterback hasn't had a big game in 2007, but he could be due against a suspect Lions' secondary. Detroit has yielded a league-worst 293 passing yards per game to opposing signal callers this season, and the last time they played on the road Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns. Detroit does have impressive interception totals, but those are heavily skewed by playing Minnesota Vikings quarterback Tarvaris Jackson (four interceptions) and Chicago Bears quarterback Brian Griese (three). Play Campbell as a solid No. 1 quarterback this week.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

DeShaun Foster, Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Foster	4	75.5	0.25	2.25	14.2	0.25
Saints vs. Pos.	3	106.3	1.33	3.67	21.0	0.00

With backup quarterback David Carr set to make his second straight start it would seem to behoove the Panthers to run the ball as much as possible. Such a strategy could only benefit Foster, who has quietly distanced himself from running back DeAngelo Williams. Foster's 75.5 yards per game average is solid, but if you throw out a Week 2 outing in which he was shutdown that number jumps to 93.3 yards per game. Add to that the fact Foster ran for a touchdown in each of his two games against New Orleans in 2006, and he can be played this week as a strong No. 2 fantasy back.

Julius Jones, Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jones	4	44.0	0.25	1.25	18.8	0.00
Bills vs. Pos.	4	140.8	0.75	5.75	39.5	0.00

Overshadowed by the tremendous play of running back Marion Barber III, Jones had his best game of the season last week with 63 total yards and a touchdown. While those may seem like modest numbers, Jones had five more carries than Barber in that game and did not take a backseat to him when they got to the red zone. Barber is still the better play, but versus a Buffalo defense that is basically a sieve against the running game there could be plenty to go around. Start Jones as a quality No. 3 option.

Wide Receivers - Strongs Plays

Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Colston	3	6.00	61.7	0.33
Panthers vs. Pos.	4	12.00	155.2	1.00

If ever a team were in more dire need of an early season Bye than New Orleans we don't know who it was. The Saints reportedly regrouped during the week off with a renewed focus on the basics, so don't be shocked by a more traditional approach offensively. That approach could include a heavy dose of Colston, who caught five balls for 132 yards and a touchdown against Carolina last season. Colston presents the same kind of matchup problems to Carolina's secondary that Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson did in Week 2, and Johnson finished the day with seven catches for 120 yards and two scores. It would be unrealistic to expect Colston to match those numbers, but he is worth starting as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver in Week 5.

Patrick Crayton, Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Crayton	4	3.25	65.5	0.50
Bills vs. Pos.	4	15.25	212.5	1.25

The Cowboys appear to have won some sort of scheduling lottery, drawing horrific pass defenses in back-to-back weeks in the St. Louis Rams and now the Bills. Crayton already burned the Rams (seven catches, 184 yards and two touchdowns), and he gets a crack at Buffalo this Monday. No one in the NFL has been victimized by opposing wideouts as badly as Buffalo, which makes Crayton a No. 2 or No. 3 option this week.

Tight End - Strong Play

Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants vs. New York Jets

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Shockey	4	4.00	49.2	0.00
Jets vs. Pos.	4	5.50	47.0	0.75

Normally we wouldn't include a big name like Shockey on a list like this since most people play him regardless of matchup. However, Shockey's mediocre play and lack of touchdowns so far this season has to have some owners questioning whether or not to keep Shockey active this week. Well, his inclusion as a strong play ought to tell you the answer to that query. The Jets' three touchdowns allowed this season to the position is the second highest total in the NFL, which could mean it's time for Shockey to reach paydirt for the first time in 2007. Start him as a decent No. 1 option.

Place Kicker - Strong Play

Kris Brown, Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Brown	4	2.25	2.00	2.50	2.50	8.5
Dolphins vs. Pos.	4	1.75	1.75	3.50	3.50	8.8

Brown has been one of the nice surprises from a fantasy perspective this season as he is on-pace to register just his second 100-plus-point campaign since joining the Texans in 2002. He gets another chance to put some serious points on the board as Miami's defense has been an absolute joke this year, and the Texans have to be fired up after dropping their last two games. Brown is a quality No. 1 place kicker this week.

Team Defense - Strong Play

Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Packers Def.	4	16.5	338.5	2.2	1.00	1.00
Chicago Off.	4	11.5	245.8	3.8	2.20	1.20

Even though the Bears pulled the trigger on their long anticipated quarterback switch in Week 4, the results were not appreciably better. Quarterback Brian Griese threw three picks, was sacked six times and the team fumbled the ball five times (though they amazingly recovered all of them)... that came in a dome against an extremely suspect Detroit Lions defense. This week they'll have to deal with the elements and a young Green Bay defense that has to be itching to avenge a 26-0 loss at Lambeau Field last season. Green Bay is a strong No. 1 defense this Sunday night.

Quarterback - Weak Play

Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Kitna	4	306.8	2.00	1.00	7.5	0.00
Redskins vs. Pos.	3	230.3	0.67	0.67	4.7	0.00

The explosive Detroit offense hits the road this week against a rested Redskins team that boasts a secondary chock-full of former first-round draft picks. Washington has done a nice job in containing opposing quarterbacks this season, allowing just two touchdown passes over three games despite facing some quality signal callers in the Eagles Donovan McNabb and Giants quarterback Eli Manning. Kitna is playing at a high enough level right now that you can't bench him, but don't be shocked if he underperforms this week.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Cedric Benson, Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Benson	4	59.8	0.25	2.00	13.0	0.00
Packers vs. Pos.	4	103.2	0.00	5.50	44.2	0.25

This can't have been the start Chicago envisioned when they dealt running back Thomas Jones to the New York Jets during the offseason. In his first four games as the starter, Benson has rushed for 50 yards or fewer three times. This week he draws a Packers defense that has allowed decent yardage on the ground but has yet to yield a rushing touchdown this year. Benson ran well against Green Bay in the 2006 season finale, and he can still be played as a weak No. 2 or solid No. 3 fantasy back this Sunday.

Warrick Dunn, Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Dunn	4	55.5	0.25	3.25	13.0	0.00
Titans vs. Pos.	3	52.0	1.00	5.00	24.7	0.00

Dunn has been the "Monarch of Mediocrity" this season, totaling between 50 and 62 rushing yards in each of his four games this season. However, this week against the Titans he might be hard pressed to match even those modest totals. Tennessee has featured a suffocating run defense, which is allowing a league-low 52 yards per game to opposing backs. The lone silver lining for Dunn owners is the three rushing touchdowns the Titans have allowed. Unfortunately, Dunn has just one touchdown of his own. He should only be played as a weak No. 3 or Bye week replacement.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Bowe	4	4.50	74.8	0.75
Jaguars vs. Pos.	3	8.00	117.7	0.00

The rookie shredded the San Diego Chargers secondary last week for 164 yards, and he scored a touchdown for the third straight week. However, last week saw the re-emergence of tight end Tony Gonzalez as a focal point in the passing game, and wide receiver Eddie Kennison (hamstring) is set to return to the lineup for the first time since Week 1 - all of which could cut into Bowe's production. Also working against Bowe this week is a Jacksonville defense among the league leaders in receptions (fourth) and yards (fifth) allowed per game to opposing receivers. Plus, they are the only team in the NFL to have not allowed a touchdown to a receiver this season. Bowe can be played as a low-end No. 2 receiver against the Jaguars.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jackson	4	4.00	57.8	0.25
Broncos vs. Pos.	4	6.50	62.8	0.75

Much like the Chargers themselves, Jackson has been a disappointment this season as he was projected as many to be a breakout receiver. The going promises to get even tougher this week as he'll have to stare across at cornerbacks Champ Bailey and Dre Bly all day. Denver has allowed the fewest receptions and lowest yardage to opposing receivers this season, which makes Jackson a weak No. 3 option at best in Week 5.

Tight End - Weak Play

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Clark	4	4.75	62.8	1.00
Buccaneers vs. Pos.	4	3.00	23.0	0.00

Clark has been a beast this season, emerging as one of quarterback Peyton Manning's favorite targets. The fifth-year tight end has caught at least one touchdown in each of his last three games, while Tampa Bay is one of just eight teams to have not allowed a touchdown to an opposing tight end this year. It's the old cliché of the unstoppable force meeting the immovable object. In other words, something has to give. We still believe in Clark enough to recommend his as a solid No. 1 option, but don't be shocked if his touchdown streak comes to an end.

Place Kicker - Weak Play

Josh Brown, Seattle Seahawks at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Brown	4	2.00	2.00	2.25	2.25	8.3
Steelers vs. Pos.	4	1.25	1.00	1.25	1.25	4.2

The steady Seattle kicker has been perfect through the first four games of the season, converting all eight of his field goal attempts and all 10 of his extra points. However, he runs into a tough Steelers defense in Week 5 that has yielded just 4.2 kicking points per game this season, which is the fourth-lowest total in the NFL. Despite his steady play this season we are recommending you look elsewhere for kicking help this week, and only play Brown as a last resort.

Team Defense - Weak Play

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Buccaneers Def.	4	11.0	291.8	2.0	1.25	0.75
Colts Off.	4	32.8	403.5	0.8	0.25	0.25

The names may have changed, but the Buccaneers defense looks suspiciously like the unit that made life miserable on opposing offenses during their playoff and Super Bowl years. Tampa Bay continues to operate out of the Cover 2, preventing opponents from getting deep and keeping the play in front of them. They've held their last two opponents under 10 points, but that doesn't figure to happen this week. Despite missing some weapons offensively, the Colts are still a dangerous squad, particularly in the dome. The Bucs may well hold Indy below their normal output, but they are still a defense that should be benched this week.

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Herija C. Green

Herija is a graduate from California State University - San Marcos. He was a contributing writer and editor with KFFL.com

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