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AFC East Fantasy Outlook

October 4, 2007 @ 17:01:19

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Ryan Dodson

AFC East

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Brady had his worst game of the season in Week 4, passing for a season-low 231 yards and launching his second interception of the year. Of course, he still completed over 78 percent of his passes while tossing three more touchdowns. Right now he is simply playing the game at another level. He is a must-start against the Cleveland Browns this week.
Wide Receiver: Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Can we go ahead and anoint Moss the Comeback Player of the Year right now? Moss was unstoppable again on Monday Night Football, a setting where he has traditionally done some of his best work. Against an overmatched Cincinnati Bengals secondary Moss had nine receptions for 102 yards and two more touchdowns, which gives him seven on the season. Needless to say he needs to be in your lineup this week when he gets to torment the state of Ohio for a second consecutive week.
Wide Receiver: Laveranues Coles, New York Jets: Coles' eight receptions in Week 4 covered a season-high 65 yards, which doesn't sound very impressive considering teammate wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery is averaging 95.5 yards per contest. However, the separation comes in the scoring numbers where Coles has registered four touchdowns this season to Cotchery's zero. As long as keeps scoring he needs to be kept active.
New England Patriots Defensive/Special Teams: It doesn't seem to matter who lines up across from the Patriots. New England is doing a phenomenal job defensively, holding the powerful Bengals to just 13 points and 283 yards of net offense. They tallied just one sack, but they did force a pair of interceptions. Keep them in your lineup until further notice.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Trent Edwards	Buffalo Bills	2	165.5	0.50	1.00	-0.5	0.00
Trent Green	Miami Dolphins	4	245.5	1.25	1.75	2.2	0.00
Chad Pennington	New York Jets	3	193.7	1.67	0.67	1.0	0.33

Edwards - The rookie delivered Buffalo's first win of the 2007 season, completing 22 of his 28 passes for 234 yards and a touchdown. His performance certainly allows the Bills to not rush quarterback J.P. Losman (knee) back from his injury, and it could create a controversy whenever Losman is healthy. Despite Edwards' strong debut he should not be played against Dallas in Week 5.

Green - Green struggled at home against the Oakland Raiders last week, throwing his sixth and seventh interceptions of the season as part of a season-low 158-yard passing effort. The veteran simply couldn't get anything going, and he doesn't seem to be making much progress with the offense. Green has a favorable matchup versus the Houston Texans in Week 5, which makes him a low-end No. 1 or Bye-week replacement.

Pennington - Pennington posted his best individual numbers of the season last Sunday, but it came in a losing effort and is clearly not how the team prefers to structure their offense. The Jets square off with the cross-town rival New York Giants this week, who are coming off a game in which they pummeled Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb into submission. Nonetheless, they have been a below-average defense when it comes to defending opposing quarterbacks this season, meaning Pennington can be started as a solid No. 1 option with a strong play.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Marshawn Lynch	Buffalo Bills	4	21.50 (41.67)	3.50 (66.42)	76.8	0.75	1.25	9.0	0.00
Ronnie Brown	Miami Dolphins	4	21.00 (36.73)	4.75 (49.75)	77.8	0.75	5.00	62.0	0.25
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	3	18.33 (20.81)	3.33 (16.21)	84.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Sammy Morris	New England Patriots	4	14.75 (22.32)	5.00 (32.43)	67.0	0.75	1.00	6.5	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	4	21.25 (33.89)	3.50 (37.05)	63.5	0.00	1.75	11.8	0.00
Leon Washington	New York Jets	4	6.75 (10.76)	0.50 (5.29)	14.2	0.25	2.75	17.0	0.00

Lynch - Buffalo's first-round pick continues to run hard, carrying the ball 23 times for 79 yards and a touchdown (his third of the season) against the Jets last week. He has a tough matchup in Week 5 when the Bills take on the undefeated Dallas Cowboys. Buffalo will likely need to keep the game close to keep Lynch as a viable option, which is easier said than done. View Lynch as a No. 1 or No. 2 running back with a weak play this Monday night.

Brown - Brown was a one-man show for Miami in Week 4, accounting for 207 of the team's 299 total yards and scoring a touchdown on a nine-yard run. The third-year back has emerged as fantasy royalty over the past two weeks, and he will be looking to keep that going against the Texans. Brown registered 111 total yards against Houston in Week 4 of 2006, but he is a weak play as a No. 1 fantasy back this time around.

Maroney - New England held Maroney (groin) out of their Week 4 victory over Cincinnati, and given the way the team is playing it seems unlikely they're going to be in any hurry to get him back on the field until he is fully healed. Monitor Maroney's status as the week progresses before determining his value for Sunday.

Morris - An intelligent signing that went almost unnoticed, Morris was a beast in Maroney's absence. The veteran back gained 117 yards on 21 carries and scored his third touchdown of the season. It was also his third straight game with a score. Morris' value is clearly tied to whether or not Maroney suits up against the Browns, but for now consider him a solid No. 2 fantasy back.

Jones - New York's running game never got going in Week 4, and Jones finished the game with just 35 yards on 12 carries. That represented the third time in four games that Jones has averaged 3.0 yards per carry or fewer. The former Chicago Bear squares off with the Giants in Week 5, a team Jones gashed for 113 yards and a touchdown in 2006. He is a strong play as a No. 2 or No. 3 back this week.

Washington - The diminutive back had easily his best offensive game of the season last Sunday, amassing 62 total yards and scoring a touchdown. His eight receptions matched Coles and Cotchery for team-high honors. He is a shaky No. 3 or Bye-week running back with a strong play in Week 5.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	4	6.75 (13.08)	0.25 (4.74)	2.75	25.2	0.00
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	4	9.50 (15.15)	0.75 (7.94)	6.50	95.5	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	4	3.75 (5.67)	0.25 (1.62)	2.00	28.8	0.00
Wes Welker	New England Patriots	4	8.00 (12.10)	1.00 (6.49)	5.75	60.8	0.25
Chris Chambers	Miami Dolphins	4	12.25 (21.43)	1.00 (10.47)	5.75	80.8	0.00
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	4	7.00 (12.24)	1.00 (10.47)	3.25	41.8	0.25

Evans - Baby steps, people, it's all about baby steps. After totaling just five receptions over Buffalo's first three contests, Evans hauled in six passes for 72 yards with the rookie Edwards under center. It's still not time to slot him back into your active lineup, but at least he appears to be headed in the right direction for the first time this season.

Cotchery - Cotchery continues to rack up yards and avoid the end zone like the plague. New York's No. 2 receiver leads the team in receptions (26) and yards (382) on the year, but he has watched while the team's six touchdown passes have gone to Coles and tight end Chris Baker. The law of averages says his time will come, and it could be this week. Keep Cotchery active as a No. 2 receiver against the G-Men.

Stallworth - A modest four-catch, 49-yard outing in Week 4 represented Stallworth's best game as a member of the Patriots, and it has to be viewed as encouraging news by anyone that drafted him. Keep him benched for now, but you can feel positive about the progress he made this past week.

Welker - Welker was pretty much a non-factor against Cincinnati, posting season lows in catches (three) and yards (22). He did supplement his work in the passing game with a 27-yard run, but overall it was still a disappointing week. This Sunday against the Browns, Welker is a low-end No. 2 or strong No. 3 receiver.

Chambers - It won't be long before Chambers and Cotchery are forming a support group as both appear to suffer from the safe affliction. Like Cotchery, Chambers is pacing the Dolphins in receptions (23) and yardage (323) while failing to reach pay dirt. This week he goes against a Texans team he caught a touchdown against last season. Play Chambers as a No. 2 or No. 3 selection with a strong play.

Booker - The veteran was M.I.A. in Week 4, totaling just one catch for eight yards. He can still be worth playing as a shaky No. 3 or if you need someone to cover a Bye. Like Chambers, Booker is a strong play.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	4	1.50 (2.91)	0.00 (0.00)	1.25	12.0	0.00
Chris Baker	New York Jets	4	2.50 (3.99)	1.00 (10.58)	1.75	15.0	0.50
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	4	3.00 (4.54)	0.75 (4.86)	2.75	21.8	0.75
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	4	2.75 (4.81)	0.50 (5.24)	1.75	14.8	0.00

Royal - After failing to record a catch in Week 3, Royal exploded (relatively speaking) for three receptions and 31 yards last Sunday. Despite actually getting his name in the box score, Royal has no value.

Baker - Baker's two-week touchdown streak came to an end in Week 4, although as a silver lining he did establish a new season high in receptions with three. He could be a one-week play if you're desperate for a fill-in option against the Giants. He is a strong play.

Watson - Like Baker, Watson's touchdown streak came to a screeching halt on Monday Night Football. The former first-round pick had just two catches for 12 yards and demonstrated why he can be a risky play. This week against the Browns, Watson remains a No. 1 option as a strong play.

Martin - I don't think Martin's play over the first month will be reminding head coach Cam Cameron of San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates, who Cameron coached last season. Martin has been a disappointment, and he can be sent to the waiver wire if you're need of roster flexibility.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	4	1.25	1.25	0.75	0.50	2.8
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	4	2.25	2.25	1.25	0.75	4.5
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	4	4.75	4.75	1.50	1.25	8.5
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	4	1.75	1.75	1.75	1.75	7.0

Lindell - Lindell's 2.8 points per game is second-to-last in the NFL with only New Orleans Saints place kicker Olindo Mare averaging a lower amount. Needless to say, he has no fantasy value.

Nugent - Nugent hasn't been much better than Lindell and, in fact, his 4.5 point-per-game average is 30th in the NFL. If for any reason you've been keeping him on roster feel free to cut bait.

Gostkowski - The second-year kicker logged his first 10-point outing of the season in Week 4 after notching eight points in each of the first three games. Kicking behind the potent New England offense, Gostkowski is a strong play as a solid No. 1 kicker.

Feely - Through four games Feely has not missed a kick and is scoring enough that he has not been a liability. However, with the offense looking like they are headed in the wrong direction he should be benched this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	4	23.2	1.00	1.0	0.25	0.2
New York Jets	4	24.2	0.50	0.8	0.25	0.2
Miami Dolphins	4	28.2	0.50	1.2	0.00	0.0

Bills - Our first of three miserable fantasy defenses, Buffalo is looking at a brutal matchup in Week 5 against a Dallas team that appears to be nearly unstoppable offensively. Keep them away from your roster.

Jets - New York continues to approach legendary levels of fantasy ineptitude as they are allowing points, not rushing the passer and failing to force turnovers. That's the kind of trifecta you absolutely don't want in your lineup this week.

Dolphins - The once proud Miami defense is now merely a shell of its former self. The Dolphins could not contain Raiders quarterback Daunte Culpepper as he accounted for five touchdowns in his first start of the season. They have allowed 30-plus points in three straight games and have no business anywhere near your lineup this week.