Fantasy Football Strategy

Strategy: Dealing With Stud RB Injuries

October 4, 2007 @ 13:44:07

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Does any of this look familiar?

OUT: Cincinnati Bengals RB Rudi Johnson (hamstring)

OUT: New York Giants RB Brandon Jacobs (knee)

OUT: St. Louis Rams RB Steven Jackson (groin)

OUT: Dallas Cowboys WR Terry Glenn (knee)

OUT: Philadelphia Eagles RB Brian Westbrook (abdomen)

OUT: Detroit Lions WR Calvin Johnson (back)

OUT: New Orleans Saints RB Deuce McAllister (knee)

OUT: Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Cadillac Williams (knee)

Yikes. Hannibal Lecter has nothing on the NFL.

Of all of the variables encountered during a fantasy season, injuries are perhaps the most difficult to plan around. Sure, you can look at injury history, even drop someone a round or two in the draft because of it, but what happens when a player actually goes down? Specifically, one who does not have significant injury history? If he's one of your studs, it can be crippling.

Coming out of a controversy-laden offseason, the 2007 campaign thus far has been about two primary storylines:

1) Lack of production from the top studs, and

2) Injuries to major players

The first storyline is a topic for another day. The second, however... Well, let's just say that, during the time it took you to read this, another Buffalo Bills player went down. In this report we'll target some of the players who have missed time at the quarter mark of the season and look for ways to mitigate those losses. Let's also fall back on some cardinal commandments of fantasy leagues, as an exercise in fundamentals.

Knoweth Thy Backups

Running back is one of the positions most eligible for the practice of "handcuffing." It's a fancy way of saying: "If you own a prominent or workhorse back, especially one with an injury history, or a solid player behind him, make sure you own his backup." Owners drafted Jacobs with the fervent hope that he would return 80-90 percent of retired back Tiki Barber's numbers. They then proceeded to watch Jacobs miss nearly all of September with a knee sprain. The mad scramble to find out who was second-string had a Keystone Cop element to it. Owners drafting Carolina Panthers running back DeShaun Foster or Jacksonville Jaguars running back Fred Taylor have traditionally reserved a later pick for handcuffing, simply due to the history of Foster and Taylor.

Raise your hand if you know someone who drafted San Diego Chargers running back Michael Turner, just on the off chance LT gets hurt.

Some owners may see it as a wasted roster spot, but they are also the guys now forced to start the Aaron Steckers of the league. The New Orleans Saints running back is far from ideal, yet he was a popular pickup after McAllister tore his anterior cruciate ligament. With the value that running backs bring in most leagues, it pays dividends to prepare up front.

Honor Thy Free Agents

Think when anyone drafted Jacobs they handcuffed him to running back Derrick Ward? Did anyone even know the name? Probably not. But when Jacobs went down, owners who added Ward were rewarded with 100-plus combined yards in each of the next three games. While this production may not replace Jacobs' projections, it does staunch the bleeding. When your starters go down, you can't go into it thinking you will find someone to give you the same points. Those guys are likely already gone. You have to think strategically, ride out the injury and examine your lineup. Take a look at upcoming opponents and player schedules to determine if you can project any relief there.

Watching the waiver wire and free-agent pool is sound strategy, regardless of your team's status. If you establish a schedule early in the season of checking it consistently, you will be in much better position to grab replacement players.

Knoweth Coach-Speak

You heard it all day last Sunday: "Brian Westbrook is a game-time decision." That cryptic sentence resulted in a number of owners leaving Westbrook on the roster and scoring zero - ZERO! - points. What could they have done to prevent it?

Considering Westbrook is likely the stud back on most teams, in this case it would have been worth it to pick up running back Correll Buckhalter as insurance. If necessary, drop the extra place kicker or defense to accommodate the roster spot, since those tend to be more fungible positions anyway. If that isn't an option, drop your sixth receiver or another very marginal back with little hope of playing. Doing so, and monitoring Westbrook's status, would have resulted in 138 total yards from Buckhalter. While that's not a number to make anyone swoon, by most counting methods it is greater than zero.

Maketh Hay Whilst the Sun Shines

This tactic is somewhat more cutthroat. It's designed to exploit the misfortunes of other owners, thus your ethical mileage may vary.

The short scenario is this: You, because you are a fantasy guru and well-disciplined in your free-agent trolling, are the first one to pick up Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Michael Pittman after Cadillac Williams is down for the count. Now you have leverage to seek out the Cadillac owner and propose a trade. The other owner doesn't have that same luxury and may be feeling a bit desperate. The cards are in your favor.

Such actions may not make you any friends, depending on the level of competition in your league, but it would certainly earn points on the Belichick Meter (named after New England Patriots head coach Bill, he of questionable ethics. Most importantly, you would also be in position to improve your team with minimal loss.

In Epitome

Face it: injuries will hit your roster, unless you've drafted solely players named Peyton and Brett. It's a fact of fantasy life; it's often the difference between championship owners and those left behind during the first playoff week. You must have a strategy in place that consists of knowing who the backups are, when to grab them and what to do with them after that.

In the end will make you a better owner and a consistent winner.