Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 4

September 28, 2007 @ 08:38:05

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players that aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterback - Strong Play

Trent Green, Miami Dolphins vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Green	3	274.7	1.33	1.67	3.0	0.00
Raiders vs. Pos.	3	268.7	1.67	2.00	9.0	0.33

Green has thrown at least 36 passes in each of his three games and has increased his yardage total each week. He has a good matchup this week against an Oakland team that has yielded a lot of yards through the air. The Raiders have shown they can be lit up through the air, and Green is clicking well with his top receiving option, wideout Chris Chambers. Green is a decent No. 1 or Bye week fill-in option this Sunday.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

Thomas Jones, New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jones	3	73.0	0.00	1.67	9.0	0.00
Bills vs. Pos.	3	168.0	0.67	4.33	33.3	0.00

Jets fans breathed a sigh of relief when Jones passed the century mark in Week 3 with 110 yards on the ground, and he looks to have a good chance to one-up himself in Week 4 against a Bills team that already seems to be on the brink of collapse. Buffalo has offered minimal resistance against opposing backs thus far, and there is no reason to think that won't continue this Sunday, which makes Jones a nice No. 3 fantasy back.

Sammy Morris, New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Morris	3	50.3	0.67	0.67	3.7	0.00
Bengals vs. Pos.	3	141.7	0.67	4.33	30.0	0.00

The Patriots continue to give Morris steady work on a weekly basis, particularly near the goal line where he has tallied a pair of touchdowns against none from starting running back Laurence Maroney. This week he gets a dream matchup against a Cincinnati defense that has been exploited defensively this season, including allowing a 216-yard game to Cleveland Browns running back Jamal Lewis. Morris is underappreciated right now, but he can be played as a solid No. 2 option in Week 4.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Kevin Curtis, Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Curtis	3	5.67	100.7	1.00
Giants vs. Pos.	3	8.00	150.3	1.33

Curtis burned the Detroit Lions in Week 3 for more than 200 yards receiving and three touchdowns... it's just too bad that he was probably started in approximately 0.34 percent of all leagues. Well, for all you Curtis owners that missed the party last week this Sunday might prove to be a chance for redemption as the shoddy Giants secondary looks ripe for the picking. They allowed Washington Redskins wide receiver Santana Moss to average 27.3 yards per catch and clearly struggle to contain deep speed, which is something Curtis has to spare. Start him as a No. 1 receiver this week.

Bernard Berrian, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Berrian	3	5.33	73.7	0.00
Lions vs. Pos.	3	12.33	169.7	1.33

Considering Berrian was the only receiver that quarterback Rex Grossman had any kind of chemistry with he might actually be sad to see Grossman take a seat on the sideline... or not. Berrian has a great matchup as he boasts the same kind of deep speed that the aforementioned Curtis used to absolutely abuse the Detroit secondary last week. He scored a touchdown in each of his two games against Detroit last season, and he can be played as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver in this NFC North showdown.

Tight End - Strong Play

Alge Crumpler, Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Crumpler	3	4.33	52.0	0.33
Texans vs. Pos.	3	5.00	47.0	0.33

Crumpler finally clicked with quarterback Joey Harrington last Sunday, hauling in six passes for 63 yards and a score. The yardage and touchdown were welcome sights to owners that invested a pick in Crumpler anticipating he would continue to be a primary option in the passing game even without suspended quarterback Michael Vick under center. The Texans had trouble containing Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark last week and could have similar difficulty with Crumpler in Week 4. He makes a nice No. 1 option against Houston.

Place Kicker - Strong Play

Nick Folk, Dallas Cowboys vs. St. Louis Rams

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Folk	3	2.33	2.00	4.67	4.67	10.7
Rams vs. Pos.	3	2.00	1.33	2.67	2.67	6.7

Giving up 24 points to the offensively challenged Tampa Bay Buccaneers is not the ideal way to prepare for a game with high-scoring Dallas, but that's exactly what St. Louis did last week. Considering their defensive struggles and the condition of their banged up offense it could be a long week for the Rams defense and a big week for Folk. Start him with confidence this week.

Team Defense - Strong Play

Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Lions Def.	3	29.3	408.0	2.7	2.00	1.33
Bears Off.	3	8.67	226.7	3.0	2.00	1.67

Even the removal of Grossman as quarterback isn't enough to make the Detroit defense lose their strong play label as the insertion of quarterback Brian Griese isn't likely to fix all of Chicago's offensive problems, which includes a suspect run game. Griese may be rusty after not having started a game since October of 2005, and running back Cedric Benson has not secured the football well this season, so the Lions defense still warrants a start as a solid No. 1 unit.

Quarterback - Weak Play

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Rivers	3	225.0	1.67	1.33	1.3	0.00
Chiefs vs. Pos.	3	183.3	0.67	1.00	-1.3	0.00

After two sub-par efforts to open the 2007 season, Rivers was surgical in his first-half dismantling of the well-respected Green Bay Packers secondary in Week 3, completing his first 15 pass attempts. The second-year starter finished the day with solid numbers (306 yards, three touchdowns) but threw a critical interception late in the game, which gives him at least one pick in all three games thus far. Kansas City has done a nice job in limiting opposing signal-callers, leaving Rivers as a weak No. 1 or Bye week replacement this Sunday.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
James	3	92.3	0.67	1.67	17.3	0.00
Steelers vs. Pos.	3	53.7	0.00	2.33	17.0	0.33

A casual glance at last week's stats shows James gained just 57 yards against the vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense, which would lead one to believe they stacked him up near the line of scrimmage. However, closer examination reveals he actually averaged a season-high 5.7 yards per carry and it was the fact that the team was trailing that took him out of the mix. It could be tougher sledding for James this week against a Steelers defense that completely stymied San Francisco 49ers running back Frank Gore (14 carries, 39 yards) in Week 3. Play James as a decent No. 2 option in this one due to a more respectable passing game than the Niners boast.

Derrick Ward, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Ward	3	91.0	0.00	4.67	29.3	0.00
Eagles vs. Pos.	3	59.0	0.67	5.00	46.0	0.00

Ward has done a very nice job filling in for injured running back Brandon Jacobs (knee), but he faces a stingy Eagles run defense in Week 4. Through three games Philadelphia has yet to allow an opposing ball carrier to reach 70 yards on the ground, and they allowed just 38 rushing yards to opposing backs last week against Detroit (although the fact that it was a blowout should be taken into account). It's unlikely they can duplicate such a Herculean effort on Sunday Night Football, so Ward can stay in your lineup as a shaky No. 1 or solid No. 2 fantasy back, but lower your expectations.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Boldin	3	7.33	95.3	1.00
Steelers vs. Pos.	3	8.67	111.3	0.33

Boldin exploded late in Arizona's Week 3 loss with a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to finish the game with 14 catches for 181 yards and the aforementioned two scores. Most of that damage came with backup quarterback Kurt Warner at the helm, though, and quarterback Matt Leinart is set to resume his starting duties this Sunday after being yanked from the lineup in Baltimore. Look for Pittsburgh to do a better job in pressuring the quarterback, and view Boldin as a No. 2 receiving option in Week 4.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Jackson	3	4.33	59.7	0.33
Chiefs vs. Pos.	3	8.33	111.0	0.33

A popular sleeper candidate entering the 2007 campaign, Jackson finally awoke last Sunday to come within two yards of posting his first career 100-yard game while snagging his first touchdown reception of the year. While many anxious fantasy owners that spent a mid-round draft choice on Jackson may be chomping at the bit to get him into their lineups, he is best served as merely an injury or Bye week replacement against the veteran Chiefs secondary this Sunday.

Tight End - Weak Play

Jeremy Shockey, New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G
Shockey	3	5.00	60.0	0.00
Eagles vs. Pos.	3	3.00	29.0	0.33

Shockey has been shockingly mediocre this season, totaling just five catches in each of the team's first three games and completely disappearing inside the red zone (one total target this season inside the 20). The fiery tight end has been feast or famine against the Eagles, recording two or fewer receptions in four of his last six games versus Philadelphia and exploding for 18 total receptions in the other two. He still makes a marginal No. 1 tight end this week, but don't be surprised if he struggles.

Place Kicker - Weak Play

Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Gould	3	1.33	1.33	1.00	1.00	5.0
Lions vs. Pos.	3	1.67	0.33	4.33	4.33	5.3

One of the fantasy benefits of a Swiss cheese defense is that instead of yielding field goal attempts you give up extra points. Such has been the life of opposing kickers against the Lions. That tendency to allow six instead of three combined with Chicago's own offensive deficiencies (maybe scoring zero instead of three or six) make Gould a very suspect No. 1 or Bye week replacement this week.

Team Defense - Weak Play

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Giants Def.	3	32.3	368.7	1.3	0.67	0.67
Eagles Off.	3	25.0	392.0	1.3	1.33	0.67

The Giants may have given some fantasy owners false hope by holding the Washington Redskins scoreless during the second half of their Week 3 win. Don't be taken in by it as this team still has issues containing opposing passing games, and they are still not generating a consistent pass rush. Coming off a game in which Philadelphia threw all over Detroit it could be a long day for the G-Men in Week 4. Leave them on your bench this Sunday night.

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Herija C. Green

Herija is a graduate from California State University - San Marcos. He was a contributing writer and editor with KFFL.com

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