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NFC North Fantasy Outlook

September 27, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

NFC North

NOTE: All stats are from the past four weeks (three or four games) unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Wide Receiver Roy Williams, Detroit Lions: The Lions fell behind early in Week 3 and as a result they went to the air even more than usual. Williams was the main beneficiary of the Philadelphia Eagles' soft coverage as he hauled in nine passes for 204 yards and a touchdown (his third in as many games). The Detroit offense should encounter their stiffest challenge to date against the Chicago Bears in Week 1, but Williams remains a decent No. 1 choice.
Wide Receiver Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers: Driver had his bell rung early on a vicious helmet-to-helmet hit by San Diego Chargers safety Marlon McCree, but he came back to post big numbers in the Packers' huge Week 3 victory. For the day, Driver had six receptions, 126 yards and a touchdown, which marked his first game eclipsing 100 yards this season. This week Driver faces a Minnesota Vikings team he averaged 145 receiving yards per game against in 2006, so make sure he stays in your lineup.
Chicago Bears Defensive/Special Teams: The Bears defense was picked apart in Week 3, allowing 27 offensive points to the Dallas Cowboys in a crushing home loss. Chicago played the entire second half without linebacker Lance Briggs (groin) as the ferocious defense continues to lose playmakers. They have an intriguing matchup this week with a trip to Detroit on the ledger. The Lions can put points on the board, but they are also turning the ball over 3.3 times per game while allowing 4.7 sacks per contest. Chicago is a strong play as a No. 1 defense this week.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Rex Grossman	Chicago Bears	3	166.7	0.33	2.00	3.0	0.00
Brian Griese	Chicago Bears	0	--	--	--	--	--
Jon Kitna	Detroit Lions	3	326.7	2.00	1.33	10.3	0.00
Brett Favre	Green Bay Packers	3	287.0	2.00	0.67	-1.0	0.00
Tarvaris Jackson	Minnesota Vikings	2	164.5	0.50	2.50	13.0	0.50

Grossman/Griese - Grossman turned in his third consecutive sub-par performance in Week 3, tossing three interceptions against Dallas. He hasn't cracked the 200-yard barrier this season, and now head coach Lovie Smith has replaced him with quarterback Brian Griese. Regardless, Griese belongs on your bench, while Grossman belongs on your fantasy scrapheap.

Kitna - Getting blown out was a blessing in disguise for Kitna owners last Sunday as it forced the Lions to abandon the run and put the ball up 46 times against the Eagles, allowing Kitna to finish with some inflated totals (426 yards, two touchdowns). Kitna threw for three touchdowns in a Week 16 loss to the Bears last season, and he can be played as a decent No. 1 option with a weak play against them this week.

Favre - Favre was on top of his game for the second time in as many weeks against San Diego, tossing for 369 yards and three touchdowns (his second straight week of three touchdown passes). Though he has traditionally struggled in the Metrodome over his career, Favre threw for 347 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 23-17 victory over the Vikings in his last visit there. Favre is a solid No. 1 but with a weak play.

Jackson - The second-year quarterback did not play in Week 3 because of a groin injury, which is still bothering him and could force him to miss the team's Week 4 meeting with the Packers. If Jackson can't go, veteran quarterback Kelly Holcomb would likely see his second straight start. Neither man should get off the bench against Green Bay this Sunday.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Cedric Benson	Chicago Bears	3	21.00 (36.60)	2.67 (47.57)	63.0	0.33	1.00	9.3	0.00
Tatum Bell	Detroit Lions	3	16.00 (22.43)	2.33 (18.49)	40.3	0.33	4.33	18.7	0.00
Kevin Jones	Detroit Lions	1	4.00 (1.87)	1.00 (2.64)	5.0	1.00	1.00	16.0	0.00
Brandon Jackson	Green Bay Packers	3	18.00 (27.58)	3.00 (27.79)	32.3	0.33	3.67	27.0	0.00
DeShawn Wynn	Green Bay Packers	3	7.33 (11.24)	0.67 (6.17)	22.3	0.67	2.00	16.7	0.00
Vernand Morency	Green Bay Packers	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--
Chester Taylor	Minnesota Vikings	1	6.00 (3.08)	0.00 (0.00)	18.0	0.00	1.00	3.0	0.00
Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	3	24.33 (37.53)	1.00 (37.50)	90.3	0.33	2.67	53.3	0.33

Benson - Trading running back Thomas Jones to the New York Jets is looking worse and worse as Benson was held under 50 yards rushing for the second time in three weeks, though he did supplement his meager yardage with his first touchdown of the 2007 campaign. He has a sweet matchup in Week 4 though, facing a Detroit defense that has allowed 159, 118 and 221 total yards, respectively, to opposing No. 1 backs over the first three weeks. Consider Benson a decent No. 1 fantasy back with a strong play in Week 4.

Bell - Bell totaled 45 yards in Week 3 and now has to contend with the return of Jones, which should cut into his touches. He's a weak No. 2 or solid No. 3 choice against Chicago, plus he carries a strong play after the Bears withered against the Cowboys backfield.

Jones - The Lions eased Jones back into the mix with four total touches, one of which was a two-yard touchdown run. He figures to start assuming a bigger role this week and therefore rates as a decent No. 2 back with a strong play.

Jackson - The rookie scored his first NFL touchdown to seal the win late in the fourth quarter last Sunday. However, he finished the game with just 44 total yards as Green Bay is largely forgoing the run in lieu of a devastating passing attack. Expect the team to go pass heavy again in Week 4 against Minnesota, making Jackson a low-end No. 3 with a weak play.

Wynn - A week after scoring two touchdowns, Wynn was a non-factor in the team's win over San Diego, finishing the game with just 23 total yards. He's a weak No. 3 option against the suffocating Vikings' run defense.

Morency - Morency (knee) has yet to debut this season, and it remains unknown as to when he will see his first game action. Definitely keep him inactive for the foreseeable future.

Taylor - Taylor (oblique, hip) has missed the past two weeks, but there is some optimism that he'll be ready to go this Sunday. It figures to be an uphill battle for him against a tough Green Bay run defense but make sure to check his status before you even consider slotting him into your lineup.

Peterson - The rookie has delivered the goods over the first three games, comfortably leading the Vikings in both rushing (271 yards) and receiving (160) thus far. Peterson will likely have a bull's-eye on his jersey this Sunday against a defense that has allowed just 86 rushing yards per game to opposing backs to this point. He's so talented, though, that he has to be started as a No. 1 back in Week 4.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Bernard Berrian	Chicago Bears	3	9.00 (15.69)	0.33 (5.95)	5.33	73.7	0.00
Muhsin Muhammad	Chicago Bears	3	6.33 (11.04)	0.67 (11.89)	1.33	12.0	0.00
Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	3	6.33 (8.88)	1.33 (10.57)	3.33	63.0	0.67
Shaun McDonald	Detroit Lions	3	8.67 (12.15)	1.33 (10.57)	6.00	79.0	0.67
Mike Furrey	Detroit Lions	3	6.33 (8.88)	0.67 (5.28)	5.00	51.7	0.00
Greg Jennings	Green Bay Packers	1	7.00 (3.58)	1.00 (3.09)	4.00	82.0	1.00
James Jones	Green Bay Packers	3	7.00 (10.73)	1.67 (15.44)	4.67	61.0	0.00
Bobby Wade	Minnesota Vikings	3	6.33 (9.77)	0.33 (12.50)	3.33	32.3	0.00

Berrian - The only guy doing anything in Chicago's passing game, Berrian has caught at least five passes and gained at least 65 yards in each of his first three games. He has yet to score a touchdown, but anyone that caught the display Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Kevin Curtis put on last Sunday knows what a speed receiver can do to the Lions secondary. Berrian caught touchdowns in both games against Detroit last season, and this week he is a nice No. 2 receiver with a strong play.

Muhammad - It's been a miserable first three weeks for Muhammad, and his lack of involvement in the offense means he should remain on the bench even against Detroit's suspect defensive backfield.

Johnson - Johnson (back) was forced from the game in Week 3 after just two receptions, and it remains unclear if the back injury he sustained against the Eagles will keep him sidelined this week versus Chicago. If he goes he is a weak No. 1 or strong No. 2 fantasy wideout with a weak play, but make sure he's in the Detroit lineup this Sunday before locking him into yours.

McDonald - The Lions continue to spread the ball around like no other team in the league, making their No. 4 receiver McDonald a No. 1 or No. 2 fantasy option this week. Like Johnson, he also carries a weak play capability.

Furrey - Although five catches and 51.7 yards per game may not seem like bad numbers, Furrey is simply not producing the way the other three receivers in Detroit's offense are at this point. He still has value as a weak No. 3 or Bye week replacement with a weak play this Sunday.

Jennings - Jennings had a memorable 2007 debut, catching Favre's record-tying 420th career touchdown pass that also happened to be the game winner late in the fourth quarter. For the day he had four catches for 82 yards and a score. He's a shaky No. 3 or Bye week replacement in Week 4.

Jones - The return of Jennings did nothing to diminish Jones' production. In fact, Jones matched Driver with a team-high six receptions last week. He came up inches short of what would have been his first touchdown, but he clearly has Favre's trust and is quietly posting solid numbers. Like Jennings, Jones can be used as a No. 3 receiver or to cover a Bye.

Wade - The Minnesota passing game continues to flounder, leaving Wade with little to no value.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Desmond Clark	Chicago Bears	3	4.00 (6.97)	0.67 (11.89)	3.00	41.7	0.00
Greg Olsen	Chicago Bears	1	2.00 (1.16)	0.00 (0.00)	2.00	28.0	0.00
Donald Lee	Green Bay Packers	3	5.33 (8.17)	0.67 (6.17)	4.00	35.3	0.33
Bubba Franks	Green Bay Packers	3	5.00 (7.66)	1.33 (12.35)	2.33	14.0	0.67

Clark - A 52-yard reception in Week 3 makes Clark's three-game totals seem much more respectable than they should be. Take that reception out, and he has eight catches for 73 yards total on the season. He had a touchdown catch against Detroit last season, and he could be played as a very weak Bye week replacement if necessary.

Olsen - Olsen caught both passes thrown his way in his NFL debut, gaining 28 yards. The first-round pick has some potential and might not be a bad player to stash on your bench. For this week he matches Clark's value as a low-end Bye week replacement.

Lee - The tight end position has reemerged in Green Bay's pass happy offense with Lee coming within about a foot of giving the Packers back-to-back weeks with multiple tight end touchdowns. As long as Favre keeps looking his way, Lee makes a weak No. 1 or solid Bye week replacement this Sunday.

Franks - Franks had just one catch in Week 3, but it went for a touchdown. Against a Minnesota defense that has allowed 6.67 receptions and 68 yards per game to opposing tight ends, Franks is a shaky No. 1 or decent Bye week fill-in for Week 4.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Robbie Gould	Chicago Bears	3	1.00	1.00	1.33	1.33	5.0
Jason Hanson	Detroit Lions	3	2.67	2.67	1.67	2.33	7.7
Mason Crosby	Green Bay Packers	3	3.33	3.33	1.33	1.67	7.3
Ryan Longwell	Minnesota Vikings	3	2.00	2.00	1.00	1.33	5.0

Gould - It has been a dull season thus far for Gould, who has attempted just seven total kicks (making them all). On paper, the Bears have a solid matchup this week, but their offense has been so porous Gould should only be played as a weak No. 1 or Bye week replacement.

Hanson - The Lions have been good in putting points on the board, though they did not attempt any field goals in Week 3. This week against Chicago you should seek other options at the position, and keep Hanson benched.

Crosby - The rookie kicker continues to do a nice job for Green Bay, converting all but one of his 14 kicks this season. Crosby is a decent No. 1 option kicking for the hot Green Bay offense in Week 4.

Longwell - Minnesota's offense has yet to impress anyone as their defense has matched them in the touchdown department. Longwell simply isn't getting enough chances to get off your fantasy bench at this time.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Detroit Lions	3	29.3	2.00	2.7	1.33	0.0
Green Bay Packers	3	16.7	1.00	1.7	1.00	0.3
Minnesota Vikings	3	12.0	1.67	3.7	1.00	1.0

Lions - Only in fantasy sports can a defense that yielded 56 points last week be highly recommended the next. Detroit is actually a solid No. 1 defense with a strong play in Week 4 when they square off against a Bears offense that can't seem to protect the football or put points on the board. Sounds like a nice matchup for Detroit this week.

Packers - Minnesota is averaging just 11 points per game to go along with 2.33 turnovers per contest. Green Bay has done a nice job containing much higher octane offenses through the first three weeks, so this looks like a good matchup for the team. Play the Packers defense as a decent No. 1 this Sunday.

Vikings - The Vikings welcome a hot Green Bay offense in Week 4, but they have historically done a very good job of defending Favre and the Packers when they travel to the Metrodome. Plus, it's not like their defense hasn't been playing strong football with 3.7 sacks and 2.67 turnovers, per game, through three games (not to mention three defensive touchdowns). Minnesota makes a solid No. 1 fantasy defense in Week 4.