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AFC East Fantasy Outlook

September 27, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Ryan Dodson

AFC East

NOTE: All stats are from the past four weeks (three or four games) unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Brady is playing on a different level than everyone else right now, completing nearly 80 percent of his passes for 887 yards and 10 touchdowns through just three games. This week he faces the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed eight passing touchdowns in their last two games. It just doesn't get better than that.
Wide Receiver: Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Moss is simply making it look easy, posting his third straight game of over 100 yards and his second consecutive multi-touchdown effort in Week 3. It's hard to imagine a Cincinnati secondary that was embarrassed by the likes of Cleveland Browns wide receiver Joe Jurevicius being able to hold Moss in check this week. Moss is a great No. 1 receiver and a strong play.
Wide Receiver: Laveranues Coles, New York Jets: Coles was quiet in Week 3, totaling just 30 yards in the Jets first win of 2007, though he did score his third touchdown of the season. The Jets chose to attack the Miami Dolphins on the ground this past Sunday, but they figure to be able to air it out against a horrendous Buffalo Bills team in Week 4.
New England Patriots Defensive/Special Teams: The Patriots continue to lock opponents down on defense, allowing a league-low 207 net yards per game thus far. They've done a decent, if unspectacular job of rushing the quarterback (3.3 sacks per game) and forcing turnovers (1.67 per game) as well. The Bengals figure to give them all they can handle in Week 4, but they still need to stay in your active lineup this week.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
J.P. Losman	Buffalo Bills	3	85.0	0.00	0.33	17.0	0.00
Trent Green	Miami Dolphins	3	274.7	1.33	1.67	3.0	0.00
Chad Pennington	New York Jets	2	145.5	2.00	0.00	1.0	0.50

Losman - Losman (knee) lasted just three plays against the Patriots last week before leaving with a knee injury and is now expected to miss at least two weeks. Losman was replaced by rookie quarterback Trent Edwards in Week 3, and Edwards is expected to start in Losman's absence. Edwards threw for just 97 yards in his debut and has no fantasy value at this juncture.

Green - Green posted his first 300-yard passing game since the 2005 season last Sunday, totaling 318 yards and a touchdown in Miami's loss to the Jets. The veteran has a good matchup against an Oakland Raiders secondary that has struggled to contain opposing signal-callers this season. Green can be played as a decent No. 1 or Bye-week replacement with a strong play this week.

Pennington - After missing Week 2 with an ankle injury, Pennington threw the ball just 22 times for 124 yards in Week 3. He did author a pair of touchdown passes, and the team figures to open up the offense a bit more against Buffalo in Week 4. View Pennington as a decent No. 1 option with a strong play against the Bills.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Marshawn Lynch	Buffalo Bills	3	21.00 (42.00)	2.33 (58.26)	76.0	0.67	1.67	12.0	0.00
Ronnie Brown	Miami Dolphins	3	20.33 (33.80)	5.00 (48.22)	59.0	0.67	4.67	58.3	0.33
Jesse Chatman	Miami Dolphins	3	7.00 (11.64)	1.00 (9.64)	14.0	0.00	3.33	21.0	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	3	18.33 (27.27)	3.33 (22.28)	84.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Sammy Morris	New England Patriots	3	11.67 (17.35)	3.67 (24.51)	50.3	0.67	0.67	3.7	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	3	23.33 (36.53)	4.67 (45.59)	73.0	0.00	1.67	9.0	0.00

Lynch - The rookie ran hard against New England, scoring the game's opening touchdown and finished with 74 yards on a career-high 20 carries. Lynch is the only relevant fantasy player on the Bills right now, and he is a strong play as a No. 1 running back against a Jets team that was embarrassed by the Dolphins' Ronnie Brown last week.

Brown - Speaking of Brown, he brought his "A" game in Week 3 after opening the season with two uninspiring efforts. For the day, Brown accumulated 211 total yards and scored all three of Miami's touchdowns. Play him as a strong No. 1 option against a Raiders team allowing just under 140 total yards per game to opposing backs.

Chatman - Chatman was M.I.A. in Week 3, failing to register a carry or a reception against New York. He's a very weak injury or Bye-week replacement against the Raiders.

Maroney - You have to wonder how long it will be before Maroney gives a call to Atlanta Falcons running back Warrick Dunn about what it's like to carry the load and then watch someone else score the touchdowns. Maroney has not scored in 54 carries this season despite coming off his first 100-yard game of the year. There's hope for this weekend though, as Maroney gashed the Bengals for 125 yards and two touchdowns in Week 4 last season. Play him as a solid No. 2 with a strong play this week.

Morris - If Maroney is Dunn, Morris is running back T.J. Duckett (Detroit Lions) as he has punched the ball into the end zone in each of the last two weeks. He's doing a nice job of spelling Maroney and his red zone work gives him even more value. Morris can be played as a decent No. 2 with a strong play as well in Week 4.

Jones - Jones had his best game since joining the Jets last Sunday, gaining more rushing yards in Week 3 than in Weeks 1 and 2 combined. Jones is a low-end No. 2 or strong No. 3 with a strong play against Buffalo in Week 4.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	3	6.33 (12.67)	0.33 (8.32)	1.67	9.7	0.00
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	3	9.00 (14.09)	0.67 (6.51)	6.00	92.0	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	3	3.00 (4.46)	0.00 (0.00)	1.33	22.0	0.00
Wes Welker	New England Patriots	3	8.33 (12.39)	1.00 (6.68)	6.67	73.7	0.33
Chris Chambers	Miami Dolphins	3	14.67 (24.38)	1.33 (12.86)	7.00	100.7	0.00
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	3	8.00 (13.30)	1.33 (12.86)	4.00	53.0	0.33

Evans - Evans has posted two games of less than 10 yards receiving in the season's first three weeks. We know there is explosive big-play ability there, but he cannot be in your lineup until the Bills offense starts moving the ball with consistency.

Cotchery - Cotchery was another victim of the Jets' conservative approach in Week 3 with just five receptions for 54 yards. Cotchery was a non-factor in two meetings with the Bills in 2006, but he is a strong play as a No. 2 fantasy wideout against Buffalo this Sunday.

Stallworth - It was another one-catch outing for Stallworth in Week 3, meaning it's not yet time to consider removing him from your bench.

Welker - The former Dolphin hauled in six more catches for 69 yards last week, but he has not scored since Week 1. He certainly has a favorable matchup this week against a Bengals secondary that has allowed 13 receptions, 178.7 yards and 2.33 touchdowns per game to the position through three games. Welker is a quality No. 2 fantasy wideout with a strong play in Week 4.

Chambers - The NFL's second-most targeted receiver posted his second straight 100-yard receiving game in Week 3, but he continues to be shut out of the end zone. That could end this Sunday when Miami takes on the Raiders, who have allowed 1.67 touchdowns per game to opposing receivers thus far. Chambers is a solid No. 1 option with a strong play this week.

Booker - Booker is quietly having a solid season with nine catches for 139 yards and a touchdown in his last two games. He is a weak No. 2 or nice No. 3 receiver and a strong play against the Raiders.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	3	1.00 (2.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.67	5.7	0.00
Chris Baker	New York Jets	3	2.33 (3.65)	1.00 (9.77)	1.33	12.0	0.67
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	3	3.33 (4.96)	1.00 (6.68)	3.00	25.0	1.00
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	3	2.67 (4.43)	0.33 (3.21)	2.00	17.7	0.00

Royal - Virtually ignored in arguably the league's worst passing offense, Royal has no fantasy value.

Baker - "The Touchdown Maker" is clearly taking his moniker seriously, catching his second scoring pass in as many weeks last Sunday. Baker is a weak No. 1 or decent Bye-week replacement with a strong play this week. If you need to pick someone up for a one-week play you should consider adding Baker.

Watson - Brady may not look Watson's way with great regularity, but Watson's three touchdowns attest to the fact that Brady likes to look for him in the red zone. His lack of overall receptions and yardage make him a bit scary, but he's a strong play as a No. 1 tight end this week.

Martin - Martin showed minimal signs of life in Week 3, catching three passes for 31 yards. However, he still isn't doing enough to warrant a spot on your roster.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	3	1.00	1.00	0.67	0.33	2.0
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	3	2.33	2.33	1.33	1.00	5.3
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	3	5.00	5.00	1.33	1.00	8.0
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	3	1.67	1.67	2.00	2.00	7.7

Lindell - Lindell has just six points on the season and should not be on your fantasy team.

Nugent - Nugent has seen a decent amount of extra points but a minimal number of field goal attempts. That trend looks as though it could continue this weekend when they face the train wreck that is the Bills. With few projected field goal opportunities Nugent should be benched this week.

Gostkowski - The Patriots offensive efficiency continues to limit Gostkowski's value since the team rarely fails to reach the end zone once they get into scoring range. He's a low-end No. 1 or Bye-week replacement with a strong play in this Sunday's potential shootout with the Bengals.

Feely - Feely leads all AFC East kickers in field goals and a matchup with a Raiders team allowing 9.7 points per game to opposing kickers makes him a solid No. 1 option with a strong play in Week 4.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	3	26.3	0.67	1.0	0.33	0.3
New York Jets	3	26.7	0.33	0.3	0.00	0.3
Miami Dolphins	3	26.0	0.67	1.3	0.00	0.0

Bills - The Bills are getting lit up, and their offense can't do enough to keep them off the field. They haven't been competitive since Week 1 and are a defense to avoid at all costs this Sunday.

Jets - New York finally forced their first turnover in Week 3, becoming the last NFL team to accomplish that feat. Nonetheless, they are making almost no big plays and even a dream matchup against the Bills (starting a backup rookie quarterback no less) isn't enough to move them off of bench status this week.

Dolphins - Miami's defense has been overmatched through three games, getting lit up by both the Dallas Cowboys and the Jets. They draw a potentially good matchup with the Raiders in Week 4, but even that only rates them as a weak No. 1 or Bye-week replacement.