Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC North Fantasy Outlook

September 27, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Ryan Patterson
Edited by Herija C. Green

AFC North

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Although the Bengals can't seem to work their way to the top of the AFC, Palmer performs with a fair level of consistency week to week. His completion percentage has been over 60 percent in each of their first three games, and he's good for at least one touchdown per week. Unfortunately, Palmer has thrown two interceptions in each of the last two games. Palmer will face a tough New England Patriots defense in Week 4 that has so far embarrassed their offensive opponents and currently rank second in pass defense. Still, the Bengals usually manage offense in every game and Palmer should be considered a No. 1 fantasy option but a weak play against New England.
Running Back Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers: In three weeks Parker has averaged 122.7 yards per game and leads the NFL in rushing. He only has one rushing touchdown so far, however, which is somewhat disappointing considering how well Pittsburgh's offense has been scoring. Despite this, you will be hard-pressed to find a fantasy team that will bench him. Versus Arizona, Parker is a low No. 1 or high No. 2 option.
Wide Receiver Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: As long as Palmer is throwing yards and touchdowns, Johnson should be a primary beneficiary, and indeed he has been very active so far this year. He was held without a touchdown last week but still managed 138 yards and currently leads the league in receiving yards. Johnson is a solid start week-to-week and a No. 1 fantasy receiver versus the Patriots in Week 4, but like Palmer, he is considered a weak play.
Wide Receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals: Houshmandzadeh is especially effective when defenses key in on Johnson. He doesn't have the yards that Johnson has, but he is keeping up in the touchdown category with four in three games (one more than Johnson). Houshmandzadeh is a moderate No. 1 player this week but also a weak play against the Patriots.
Tight End Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: Heap is a great tight end and a favorite target for both quarterbacks Steve McNair and Kyle Boller. Baltimore has had some difficulties getting their offense in gear, but a match-up against the Cleveland Browns could be the prescription for their offensive woes. Indeed, Heap is our second ranked tight end for Week 4, a solid No. 1 option and a strong play.
Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: Winslow (shoulder) has started 2007 right where he left off in 2006, averaging 90.3 yards per game (yet only 0.33 touchdowns). He is looking at a tough matchup versus the Ravens this week as Baltimore's pass defense has allowed an average of only 10.3 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season. Still, if Cleveland is to muster any offense then Winslow may need to be a part of it, and he should still be considered a moderate No. 1 tight end, but a weak play.
Baltimore Ravens Defensive/Special Teams: Baltimore's defense is (especially versus the run) is doing well as usual. On the other hand, Cleveland's offense is looking pretty good (it's been a while since the words "Cleveland" and "good" were used in the same sentence). Fantasy-wise, Baltimore's defense may not score fantasy points by shutting the Browns out, but Cleveland's quarterback is inexperienced and Baltimore might be able to take advantage of that. Consider them a fair No. 1 option for Week 4.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Steve McNair	Baltimore Ravens	2	200.5	0.50	0.50	7.0	0.00
Derek Anderson	Cleveland Browns	3	253.3	2.33	1.33	3.7	0.33
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	187.7	2.00	0.33	10.0	0.00

McNair - Health is an issue again for McNair (groin) and questions are raised as to how much longer he can play. He has missed time over the past two weeks with a groin injury and this makes him a risk to start in Week 4. He is averaging only one touchdown every other game and despite Cleveland's porous defense, we recommend that you start him only if you have no other choice as reports indicate Boller should see action again this Sunday.

Anderson - It still may be too early to tell what kind of quarterback Anderson will be. He followed up his lofty five-touchdown performance in Week 2 with 248 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in Week 3 against the Oakland Raiders. Not too shabby, but both Cincinnati and Oakland have below-average pass defenses and the experienced Ravens defense might expose Anderson's inexperience. In Week 4, Anderson is a fair Bye week replacement or a weak No. 1 option.

Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger has been efficient so far in 2007, throwing six touchdowns to only one interception, but 66 percent of those touchdowns came in the first game. Since then, he has still been relatively mistake free, but at the same time, not on the high end of productivity in yards with 187.7 yards per game. Roethlisberger is a good Bye week replacement versus the Arizona Cardinals in Week 4, or a moderate No. 1 fantasy option.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Willis McGahee	Baltimore Ravens	3	25.00 (35.39)	5.33 (37.42)	90.7	0.00	3.00	21.0	0.33
Rudi Johnson	Cincinnati Bengals	3	23.00 (31.57)	2.67 (31.62)	59.0	0.00	2.67	30.7	0.33
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	3	19.67 (34.33)	2.67 (50.34)	102.0	0.33	1.33	11.0	0.00

McGahee - McGahee hasn't yet had the impact in 2007 that many had hoped for ("many" being all those who drafted him). His 90.7 yards per game is decent, but his one receiving touchdown and no rushing touchdowns could be considered an underachievement. The team as a whole is averaging only 1.33 offensive touchdown per game and that is slim even for the Ravens. Nevertheless, consider McGahee as a moderate No. 1 back in Week 4 and a strong play versus the Browns.

Johnson - Johnson had an abysmal game against the Seahawks in Week 3, rushing for only nine yards on 17 carries. That yards-per-carry average (0.53) nearly defies the laws of physics. Johnson suffered a hamstring injury during the game which now makes his status for Week 4 uncertain. If Johnson does play against New England he is a moderate No. 2 option at best and a weak play versus a tough Patriots defense.

Lewis - So which Lewis will we see in Week 4; the one who runs for eight yards per carry or the one who runs for less than four? Unfortunately, his game versus Cincinnati is probably the anomaly, and it doesn't figure to get easier next week against his old team who is allowing only 59.7 rushing yards per game to running backs. Lewis should still see his carries, however, and Cleveland shouldn't fall so far behind to have to abandon the running game. Lewis is a moderate No. 2 player and a weak play.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Mark Clayton	Baltimore Ravens	3	3.33 (4.72)	1.00 (7.02)	2.00	11.0	0.00
Derrick Mason	Baltimore Ravens	3	12.33 (17.46)	2.33 (16.37)	7.67	69.7	0.33
Braylon Edwards	Cleveland Browns	3	9.33 (16.29)	0.33 (6.29)	5.00	92.7	1.00
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	3	5.67 (9.89)	0.67 (12.58)	3.00	34.7	0.67
Hines Ward	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	6.33 (10.65)	2.33 (19.93)	3.00	36.0	0.33
Santonio Holmes	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	4.67 (7.85)	0.00 (0.00)	2.67	52.3	0.33

Clayton - Before last week, Clayton actually had negative receiving yards on one reception. He started last week against the Cardinals and got involved... a little. Unfortunately there just isn't a whole lot of offense to go around and he's low on the pecking order. Even though the Ravens are playing Cleveland in Week 4, he is a weak play and should be left on the bench.

Mason - Mason has done well with what is available to him and got his first touchdown of the season last week. He'll be looking to improve on that against the Browns and could have a productive day (by Baltimore standards at least). He is a solid No. 2 or No. 3 receiving option and a strong play Sunday.

Edwards - It was easy to be wary of Cleveland's offense with so much uncertainty at the quarterback position, but Edwards has done well. He recorded 83 yards and a touchdown last week versus the Raiders and his yards-per-catch average this season has been outstanding (18.5). Baltimore's pass defense hasn't been nearly as effective as their rush defense in 2007. Edwards is a strong play this week as a moderate No. 1 or solid No. 2 choice.

Jurevicius - Although Jurevicius had two touchdowns in Week 2, it isn't something you can really count on throughout the rest of the season. He is averaging only 34.7 yards per game and is the third receiving option behind Edwards and Winslow. Jurevicius could see some action and be a red-zone target, however. Consider him a No. 3 receiver and a strong play in Week 4.

Ward - Ward (knee) suffered a knee sprain against the San Francisco 49ers last week. Although an MRI revealed no damage, he is currently listed as doubtful for Week 4. Monitor his progress throughout the week, but leave him benched unless his status is upgraded or the team declares he will play.

Holmes - With Parker running well and Roethlisberger favoring his tight ends in the red zone, Pittsburgh's wide receivers are seeing less production. Holmes is averaging 2.67 catches per game, but he has done well with what's been given to him. He is a moderate No. 3 option for his match-up against the Cardinals.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Reggie Kelly	Cincinnati Bengals	3	1.67 (2.29)	0.33 (3.95)	1.00	8.3	0.00
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	4.00 (6.73)	0.67 (5.69)	3.33	50.3	0.33

Kelly - With Johnson and Houshmandzadeh running around, it's tough for Kelly to get any action, hence his one catch per game average. On the off-chance he's on your team, it's time to re-evaluate your fantasy tight end strategy. It would also be best to leave him on the bench where hopefully he has been the past three weeks. Kelly is a weak play in Week 4.

Miller - Miller had a good game last week against the 49ers, recording four catches for 82 yards. If Ward is out, he could see his utilization increase in Week 4. The passing game still concedes to the running game in Pittsburgh, however. Consider him as a low No. 1 tight end and a weak play against the Cardinals.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Matt Stover	Baltimore Ravens	3	2.00	2.00	2.67	3.00	10.0
Shayne Graham	Cincinnati Bengals	3	2.67	2.67	1.67	2.00	7.7
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	3	3.33	3.33	1.33	1.67	7.3
Jeff Reed	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	3.33	3.33	3.00	3.00	12.3

Stover - It doesn't get a whole lot more consistent than Stover, and he was a good fantasy selection last week making four field goals against the Cardinals. He looks like a great option in Week 4 against Cleveland as well. So good in fact, that we have ranked him as our top kicker option and a strong play.

Graham - Graham is not getting the kicking opportunities that fantasy owners hoped for. He's had only three attempts in the past two weeks, which isn't all that surprising given how efficient the Bengals are at getting in the end zone (not to mention their need to get there). Graham is a low No. 1 kicker or Bye week replacement and a weak play versus the Patriots.

Dawson - Dawson had a 40-yard field goal attempt blocked by the Raiders last week in the final moments of the game. Dawson is usually pretty reliable, however, and Cleveland isn't as efficient an offense as Cincinnati. They may call on Dawson often and he is a solid No. 1 kicker against the Ravens in Week 4 with a strong play as well.

Reed - Reed is perfect so far this season, averaging 3.33 field goal attempts per game. This makes him a solid No. 1 kicker nearly every week and we believe this is especially so in Week 4. We also believe he is a strong play versus the Cardinals.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Cincinnati Bengals	3	29.7	1.67	1.3	1.33	0.33
Cleveland Browns	3	35.0	0.67	1.3	1.33	0.33
Pittsburgh Steelers	3	8.7	1.00	4.0	1.00	0.67

Bengals - There's not a lot to be desired when considering the Bengals defense, but at least they are living up to most people's expectations. Considering that the Patriots have torn through all other team's defenses like a kid with a Christmas present, it should be no surprise that we have rated Cincinnati's defense as a weak play, and best left on the bench. Better yet, get them as far away from your team as possible.

Browns - Cleveland's defense, although not a whole lot better than Cincinnati's, has a more favorable match-up in Week 4 against Baltimore. Mistakes can be (and often are) made on the Ravens' offense and the Browns could capitalize. Plus, Cleveland's special teams have shown some flashes this season including a 99-yard kick-return touchdown by wide receiver Josh Cribbs last week (important if your league includes special teams with defense). There are better defensive options in Week 4, however, so the Browns are a low No. 1 option or Bye week replacement.

Steelers - Pittsburgh has done well holding other teams in check so far this season, allowing an average of 8.7 points per game. However, we feel they are no more than a low No. 1 starting option or Bye week replacement against the Cardinals in Week 4.