Fantasy Football and NFL News, Rumors and Injury Updates

AFC West Fantasy Outlook

September 27, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Ken Jager
Edited by Herija C. Green

AFC West

NOTE: All stats are from the past four weeks (three or four games) unless otherwise noted.

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Travis Henry, Denver Broncos: Henry had a tough go of it during his team's 23-14 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3. He rushed only 11 times for just 35 yards (3.2 yards per carry) and his first touchdown of the season. His low numbers, however, can largely be contributed to Denver playing from behind the whole game. He faces a true test versus the Indianapolis Colts defense in Week 4, which has given up 95.7 yards per game and just two touchdowns in three games. Henry is still a viable fantasy option, however, and is a solid No. 1 or No. 2 play this week.
Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: You're probably tired of hearing it by now, but patience is virtue with Johnson. He turned in just 42 yards on 24 carries (1.8 yards per carry) along with just one catch for negative-5 yards against the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3. And, again, no touchdowns. But it's still early to put all the blame on Johnson for two reasons: a below-average quarterback and facing three top 10-caliber run defenses in the first three weeks. The bad news is that the quarterback situation won't change (yet), but the good news is that Kansas City will face easier defenses sooner than later. Another tough game this week against the division rival San Diego Chargers puts Johnson as a weak play, but things are looking up for Week 5. Hang in there.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: Tomlinson had his best game of the season in Week 3's 31-24 loss to the Green Bay Packers, but unfortunately for fantasy owners, that doesn't mean much. He rushed 22 times for 62 yards (2.8 yards per carry) and caught three passes for 33 yards and a touchdown - an acceptable game for a lower tier running back, but still nowhere near "LT" standards. Like Johnson, Tomlinson has faced stiff run defenses in the early going, but if Tomlinson has another poor game against the Chiefs mediocre run defense in Week 4, then it could be time to worry. He has the potential of doubling his season rushing total (130 yards and one touchdown) and is a solid play as a No. 1 or No. 2 option this week.
Wide Receiver Javon Walker, Denver Broncos: Walker did not have a good game in Week 3 (two catches for 10 yards) against the Jaguars overwhelming defensive performance. Walker received most of the attention, leaving teammate wide receiver Brandon Marshall wide open for a big game. While it appears the Broncos now have a viable second receiving option, Walker's numbers could slip a bit until defenses start giving Marshall more attention, so be patient as Walker is still a key component of the Denver offense. That said, a tough matchup in Week 4 versus the Colts may not be his best game, and he checks in as a weak No. 3 option.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates turned in another big game in Week 3 with 11 receptions for 113 yards in the Chargers' loss to the Packers. Averaging 16.69 percent of the plays (20.79 percent in the red zone) this season, Gates should always be a main target of quarterback Philip Rivers. But with the likely heavy attention on the running game this week, he is a weak play against a tough Chiefs pass defense as a No. 1 option.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez is finally starting to see the rewards from the stagnant Kansas City running game. He collected a team-leading seven receptions for 96 yards in the Chiefs' narrow 13-10 victory against the Vikings in Week 3, including a key third-down reception in the game-winning touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Gonzalez was a popular target for Huard in Week 3 (targeted nine times, 14.82 percent) and figures to be again coming up in San Diego in Week 4. He is a strong play as your No. 1 option or Bye week replacement.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	3	265.0	1.00	1.33	5.0	0.00
Damon Huard	Kansas City Chiefs	3	183.0	0.67	1.00	1.7	0.00
Daunte Culpepper	Oakland Raiders	1	118.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	3	225.0	1.67	1.33	1.3	0.00

Cutler - Cutler turned in an efficient performance in Week 3's loss to the Jaguars on 16-of-23 passing for 222 yards, a touchdown and an interception. Jacksonville dominated the time of possession (38:42 to 21:18), which limited Cutler's chances. But he's found a new dependable target in Marshall, which should give him more options in the coming weeks. For Week 4, however, he faces a stiff Indianapolis squad and is a weak play as your No. 1 option or Bye week replacement.

Huard - Huard had his first real solid game in Week 3 as he led the Chiefs to a 13-10 victory against the Vikings. With Gonzalez as his favorite target, Huard was 20-for-29 with 202 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions for a 100.6 rating. But one performance doesn't mean a thing on his underachieving team and now is no time to trust Huard, who merely earned another start in Week 4. Despite a favorable match up against San Diego, he is a weak play and is best left on the bench.

Culpepper - Culpepper came in on relief of quarterback Josh McCown (foot, toe, finger) in Week 3, and he is now been announced as the starter for Week 4 as McCown tries to recuperate from his myriad of injuries. Culpepper looked solid in the preseason and threw for 118 yards in just eight completions last week. He’s definite bench candidate this week but keep an eye of him to say how he fares in his first start of the season.

Rivers - Rivers gave his fantasy owners a sigh of relief in Week 3 with a strong performance - 27-for-36 (including 15-for-15 to start the game), 306 yards, three touchdowns and one interception for a 116.2 rating. With Tomlinson struggling, he is turning to Gates and is utilizing wide receiver Vincent Jackson more. In Week 4, he goes against the effective Chiefs pass defense, which is only giving up 155.7 passing yards per game and limiting opposing quarterbacks to a 71.2 rating. This makes Rivers a weak play as a No. 1 or bye replacement.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
LaMont Jordan	Oakland Raiders	3	27.33 (42.47)	3.00 (39.07)	116.7	0.67	3.67	40.3	0.0
Michael Turner	San Diego Chargers	3	5.67 (8.60)	0.67 (6.93)	18.7	0.00	0.67	4.7	0.0

Jordan - So far, Jordan is having one of most productive seasons of any running back in the league. Week 3 featured Jordan scampering for 121 yards on 29 carries, scoring a touchdown, and collecting two passes for 32 yards. In his first three games, he's amassed 350 yards on the ground (5.1 yards per carry) and 121 yards in the air. His matchup against the soft Miami run defense in Week 4 should be more than enough to keep Jordan rolling. He is a strong play as your No. 1 option.

Turner - Turner is supposed to be a part of a Chargers' running game that won't quit. The problem is it hasn't started yet. Tomlinson will likely get every opportunity to turn the team's running woes around, only further diminishing Turner's fantasy value. Turner is only an insurance backup for Tomlinson at this point and should see more time on your bench.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Brandon Marshall	Denver Broncos	3	8.67 (13.49)	1.33 (13.84)	5.67	89.0	0.33
Samie Parker	Kansas City Chiefs	3	4.33 (7.45)	0.67 (18.31)	2.67	30.0	0.00
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	3	5.67 (9.75)	1.00 (27.47)	3.33	45.0	0.67
Ronald Curry	Oakland Raiders	3	7.67 (11.91)	1.00 (13.02)	5.00	69.0	0.67
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	3	5.33 (8.29)	1.00 (13.02)	1.33	30.7	0.33
Vincent Jackson	San Diego Chargers	3	6.00 (9.11)	0.33 (3.46)	4.33	59.7	0.33

Marshall - At this point in the season, Marshall is surpassing teammate Walker in yards (267 to 230), touchdowns (one to zero) and looks inside the 5-yard line (two to one). The second-year receiver had a big performance against Jacksonville hauling in seven catches for 133 yards, including three catches for 91 yards in the Broncos' first drive of the second quarter. Against Indianapolis this week, Marshall is a weak play as a No. 2 option.

Parker - Parker's fade continues in the Chiefs offense, collecting only one pass for 22 yards and being targeted just twice in Week 3. With the emergence of the rookie Bowe, Parker is turning into an afterthought. Facing San Diego this week, Parker's only roster spot is on the bench as a weak play.

Bowe - With five catches, 77 yards and a touchdown in Week 3's win versus the Vikings, Bowe is cementing himself as Kansas City's top threat at wide receiver. His acrobatic catches and developing rapport with Huard is paying dividends and that should continue this week versus the Chargers. If you need another option at receiver, Bowe is a good free-agent target as he is strong play in Week 4 as a No. 2 receiver and has a solid outlook for the rest of the season.

Curry - Curry is another young receiver outshining his veteran teammate, thanks to his big play ability. Curry caught only three passes in Week 3, but he turned them into 62 yards and a touchdown in the Raiders' 26-24 victory over the Cleveland Browns. No matter who his quarterback is for this season, Curry looks to be a solid No. 2 or 3 receiver on any team. This week against the Miami Dolphins, Curry is a weak play as a No. 2 option.

Porter - In Week 3, Porter was targeted six times, the same as Curry, but he only had one catch for 20 yards, the second week in a row he had only a single reception. For a once-considered premier receiver, Porter isn't delivering and Raiders are losing faith in him. Porter is a weak play as an injury or Bye week replacement versus Miami in Week 4.

Jackson - Chargers head coach Norv Turner said he wanted to get Jackson more involved in the game plan, and Jackson responded with six receptions for 98 yards and his first touchdown in Week 3. He was targeted 10% of the time, higher than his 9.11% season average and he got his first red zone target. Jackson remains a No. 3 option, but is a weak play against Kansas City in Week 4.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Daniel Graham	Denver Broncos	3	2.00 (3.11)	0.00 (0.00)	1.33	11.00	0.00
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	3	3.67 (5.70)	0.00 (0.00)	2.33	18.00	0.00

Graham - Once thought to be a fantasy dark horse entering the season, Graham is remaining in the dark and his horse has left the stable without him. Graham posted a goose egg in Week 3, being targeted only once, and figures to not get much more in Week 4 against the Colts. Look elsewhere for a Bye week replacement as Graham continues to be a non-factor in the Broncos' offense.

Miller - As a rookie, Miller doesn't seem quite ready to grasp the NFL offense. He caught only one pass for 13 yards in Week 3, and teammate tight end John Madsen, in fact, received more attention in the offense than Miller. Miller could develop into a solid option, but just not right now. For Week 4, he might be used as a Bye week replacement in deep leagues.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XP/G	XPA/G	FG/G	FGA/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	3	1.33	1.33	2.00	3.00	7.3
Dave Rayner	Kansas City Chiefs	2	1.00	1.00	1.50	1.50	5.5
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	3	2.00	2.00	1.67	3.00	7.0
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	3	2.33	2.33	0.33	0.67	3.3

Elam - After two weeks of last-second magic, Elam crashed back to Earth in Week 3, only getting two extra point kicks and no field goal attempts against the Jaguars' impressive defensive display. Elam should still get his kicks in with this Denver offense, so fantasy owners shouldn't worry. He faces a legitimate defense in Indianapolis in Week 4, so this could be another slow week for Elam. He should be benched with a weak play as a result.

Rayner - Week 3 was Rayner's chance to star as his two field goals (from 39 and 49 yards) proved to be the difference-maker in Kansas City's 13-10 win in Week 3. But until the Kansas City offense can move the ball effectively and consistently, Rayner is a risky option. He's a weak play in Week 4 at San Diego and a good choice to leave on the bench.

Janikowski - The Oakland offense got in gear in Week 3 against Cleveland and Janikowski had his best fantasy production since Week 7 of the 2004 season. Just like he did then, Janikowski hit all four of his field goals and kicked two extra points in Week 3's 26-24 victory over Cleveland. His final field goal of the game, a 48-yarder, put the game out of reach for the Browns. But until the Oakland offense can find a consistent groove, Janikowski remains a bench option and is a weak play in Week 4 in Miami.

Kaeding - Kaeding finally made a mark in the field goal column of the stat book, connecting on a 44-yarder late in the Chargers' 31-24 loss in Week 3 to the Packers. He also hit all three of his extra point tries. While the Chargers' offense remains largely immobile, Kaeding's fantasy value continues to suffer. He is a weak play and shouldn't enter a fantasy lineup in Week 4 against Kansas City.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	3	14.3	1.33	2.7	0.67	0.0
Kansas City Chiefs	3	12.7	1.00	3.3	1.00	0.0
Oakland Raiders	3	25.7	2.00	1.7	0.33	0.3
San Diego Chargers	3	22.0	0.67	2.3	1.00	0.0

Broncos - The dreaded match up for any NFL defense - the Indianapolis offense. Denver has been rather soft against the run this season and could have issue stopping Colts running back Joseph Addai. And even though the Denver pass defense is currently the best in the league (88.3 passing yards allowed, 59.8 opposing quarterback rating), quarterback Peyton Manning has a history of turning men into mice. It's best not to risk playing the Denver defense this week as they are a weak play and could use a rest on your bench.

Chiefs - The Kansas City defense has been the most effective defense in the AFC West, and they face division foe San Diego in Week 4. Coming off a gritty Week 3 performance against Minnesota, the Chiefs have momentum and extra incentive in this divisional match up. The combination of the Chiefs' strong defensive play, and the poor play thus far by the Chargers' offense, makes Kansas City is a confident No. 1 option this week.

Raiders - The Raiders defense may not know how to keep their opposition from scoring, but they can pick off the quarterback a couple times a game. The Raiders' solid secondary is carrying the defense, which leads to more opportunities to score. They face an up and down Miami offense in Week 4 and can get away with being a No. 1 option or a Bye week replacement.

Chargers - In a battle of two sputtering offenses, San Diego and Kansas City could be in for a low-scoring affair. San Diego has been effective against the run (88.7 yards per game), but a little shaky in their pass defense. With the Chargers facing a struggling running back and an unstable quarterback, San Diego is a strong play as your No. 1 defense.