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Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 3

September 21, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

Welcome to another edition of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players that aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

Quarterback - Strong Play

Trent Green, Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Green	2	253.0	1.50	2.00	4.5	0.00	0.00
Jets vs. Pos.	2	241.0	2.50	0.00	5.0	0.00	0.00

New head coach Cam Cameron hasn't been shy about putting the ball in the air as fellow newcomer Green has thrown 78 passes during the first two games of his tenure. Green did have four passes intercepted in Week 2, but that is a bit deceiving as three of them came in the second half as the Dallas Cowboys were pulling away. Usually Green is an intelligent decision maker on the field, and he looks to have a nice matchup against a New York Jets team that currently stands as the only club in the NFL not to have forced a turnover. Their five touchdowns allowed to the position aren't very impressive, either. Don't hesitate to start Green as a solid No. 1 with some upside against New York.

Running Backs - Strong Plays

LenDale White, Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
White	2	65.0	0.50	1.00	3.5	0.00	0.00
Saints vs. Pos.	2	115.5	1.50	3.00	17.5	0.00	0.00

The chubby halfback scored his first NFL touchdown last week, cutting through the Indianapolis Colts' goal line defense like a hot knife through butter... mmmmmmm... butter. Now if the notion of delicious buttery goodness doesn't have White salivating, surely the thought of facing a New Orleans Saints defense that has given up 115.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs should do the trick. Play Brown as a solid No. 3 option.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TDs/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Williams	2	46.5	0.00	3.00	16.5	0.00	1.00
Falcons vs. Pos.	2	109.5	0.00	3.50	51.5	0.50	0.00

Carolina's rushing attack never got going in Week 2 against the Houston Texans with Williams toting the rock just eight times for 31 yards. Thus far on the young season he's been splitting carries with fellow "De" running back DeShaun Foster and that figures to continue into the foreseeable future. This Sunday Williams squares off against Atlanta, who did a respectable job against the Jacksonville Jaguars backs after being completely embarrassed by Minnesota Vikings rookie running back Adrian Peterson in Week 1. Williams ran for 82 yards the last time these two teams hooked up, and don't be surprised if he surpasses that total this week. He can be played as a No. 3 running back this Sunday.

Wide Receivers - Strong Plays

Ronald Curry, Oakland Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Curry	2	6.00	72.5	0.50	0.00
Browns vs. Pos.	2	15.00	221.5	3.50	0.00

Curry's eye-popping Week 1 performance (10 receptions, 133 yards and a touchdown) was followed up by a game that made fantasy owners want to avert their eyes as he finished Oakland's loss last week with just two catches for 12 yards. Of course, a lot of that can be traced to quarterback Josh McCown playing the entire game in traction... or at least we're assuming he was in traction based on his 73 yards and three picks. Regardless of last week's woes the Raiders passing game looks in great shape to bounce back against the Cleveland Browns, who have given up seven touchdowns in two games to opposing receivers. Spice up your lineup with Curry as a No. 1 or No. 2 receiver in Week 3.

Chris Chambers, Miami Dolphins at New York Jets

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Chambers	2	7.50	100.5	0.00	0.00
Jets vs. Pos.	2	13.50	167.0	1.00	0.00

The offseason addition of someone that can actually complete a forward pass has been a welcome sight for Chambers as the former Pro Bowler is looking much more like the player he was in 2005 instead of the unmitigated fantasy bust he was last season. He still hasn't found the end zone this season, but his 31 targeted plays lead all NFL receivers. Chambers looks like a decent No. 2 or very strong No. 3 fantasy wideout this week against a Jets defense that has been getting abused by opposing receivers.

Tight End - Strong Play

Eric Johnson, New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Johnson	2	5.50	37.5	0.00	0.00
Titans vs. Pos.	2	4.00	72.0	0.50	0.00

A popular waiver wire addition after an eight-catch, 57-yard outing in Week 1, Johnson was a disappointment with only three receptions for 18 yards last Sunday. Things are looking up again for Johnson this week as the Saints host the Titans in a game New Orleans is desperate to win. Tennessee was taken apart by Indianapolis Colts tight end Dallas Clark to the tune of seven receptions, 69 yards and a touchdown a week ago, which bodes well for Johnson's prospects in Week 3. Johnson can be played as a weak No. 1 with upside if you're looking for someone to slot into your lineup.

Place Kicker - Strong Play

Neil Rackers, Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Rackers	2	2.50	2.00	2.00	2.00	8.0
Ravens vs. Pos.	2	3.00	2.00	1.50	1.00	7.0

Rackers split the uprights with just a couple seconds remaining in Week 2 to lift the Cardinals to a 23-20 victory over the Seattle Seahawks. The Arizona kicker has received quite a few chances this year, and he has converted all but one of them. He has a solid matchup this Sunday against a Ravens defense allowing 10.5 potential points per game (7.0 actual) through the first two games of the season. Start him with confidence.

Team Defense - Strong Play

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Chiefs Def.	2	14.0	277.0	2.5	1.50	1.00
Vikings Off.	2	11.5	307.5	1.0	2.50	0.50

As bad as the Chiefs have been offensively over the first two weeks they have actually done a respectable job defensively, allowing just 14 points per game while adequately pressuring the quarterback. Their opponent in Week 3 is cut from the same cloth with a potentially dominating defense and lackluster offense. Second-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson (groin) threw four interceptions last week and more could be in the works this Sunday with the Vikings actually venturing outside to play football for the first time in 2007. Quarterback Kelly Holcomb is expected to start for the injured Jackson, so don't expect quite as many turnovers, but he could be rusty. Kansas City makes a very nice one-week play in Week 3.

Quarterbacks - Weak Plays

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Romo	2	265.5	3.00	0.50	23.5	0.50	0.00
Bears vs. Pos.	2	210.0	0.50	1.00	0.0	0.00	0.50

Romo's great start to the 2007 season is almost enough to make Cowboys fans forget how the 2006 season ended... almost. We fantasy owners have no such hang-ups about Romo, and anyone with the foresight to have scooped him up on draft day is reaping the early benefits. The road gets more than a little tougher this week, though, as Dallas travels to the Windy City for a showdown with the Bears. Chicago has put the clamps on opposing quarterbacks thus far, and you have to figure they'll be looking to make a statement on national television that they are still the team to beat in the NFC. Romo is playing too well to bench but temper your expectations for Week 3.

Running Backs - Weak Plays

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Peterson	2	84.5	0.00	2.50	56.0	0.50	0.00
Chiefs vs. Pos.	2	108.0	0.00	5.00	28.0	0.00	0.00

The Detroit Lions did a nice job of containing Peterson in Week 2 as he averaged just 3.3 yards per carry against them. He still did a nice job as a receiver out of the backfield (four receptions, 52 yards), but it was clear the Lions were keying on Peterson. Expect Kansas City to do the same thing and dare Jackson to beat them down the field, which is something he has yet to prove he can even come close to doing. Peterson should see a lot of touches and on the strength of that he remains a low-end No. 1 back. However, expect him to see plenty of eight and even nine men in the box this week.

Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Bush	2	32.5	0.00	5.00	25.0	0.00	0.00
Titans vs. Pos.	2	65.5	0.50	2.50	17.0	0.00	0.50

It's been a brutal first two weeks for Bush individually and New Orleans as a whole. The Saints have yet to even resemble their 2006 club; Bush is averaging just 3.0 yards per run and 5.0 yards per reception. Bush started slowly last season before finding his stride, but he draws a tough Titans team that has shown they know how to handle a high-powered offense (even one firing on all cylinders). Even though he probably cost you a low first-round or high second-round pick, Bush should only be played as a shaky No. 3 this Sunday.

Wide Receivers - Weak Plays

Javon Walker, Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Walker	2	8.50	110.0	0.00	0.0
Jaguars vs. Pos.	2	6.00	87.0	0.00	0.0

Although the Broncos are usually associated with a high-octane running attack, second-year quarterback Jay Cutler has been going to the air with regularity this season. His top target has been Walker, who already has 220 yards on 17 receptions. This week, though, they might be more apt to lean on their running game against a Jacksonville club that has stifled opposing wideouts. Without question Walker should present their biggest challenge to date, but Jacksonville's talent dictates he should be viewed as no better than a solid No. 3 option in Week 3. Temper your expectations.

Drew Carter, Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Matchup	Games	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Carter	2	3.00	34.5	1.00	0.0
Falcons vs. Pos.	2	8.50	126.5	0.50	0.0

Carter appears to be emerging as a solid target opposite superstar wide receiver Steve Smith for Carolina, but he hasn't approached the level of a weekly start at this point. This Sunday he and the Panthers square off against Atlanta, who for all their struggles through the first two weeks of the season has done an excellent job of containing opposing receivers. He's still a No. 3 receiver on the fast track of the Georgia Dome, but make sure you check your roster for better options.

Tight End - Weak Play

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Clark	2	4.5	58.5	0.5	0
Texans vs. Pos.	2	5.0	31.5	0.0	0

Coming off his best regular season performance since Week 11 of the 2005 season against the Cincinnati Bengals, Clark (neck) will be looking to build on last week when the Colts visit the Texans in a battle for first place in the AFC South. Unfortunately for Clark, the Texans do a good job of limiting the tight end position, even shutting down Chiefs tight end Tony Gonzalez (five receptions, 28 yards) in Week 1. Play Clark as a decent No. 1, but don't expect an encore of Week 2. Keep an eye on his neck injury, too, since he didn't practice Thursday. It is uncertain whether or not the move was a precautionary measure, but even a healthy Clark should have a tough go of it this weekend.

Place Kicker - Weak Play

Jeff Wilkins, St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Wilkins	2	3.00	2.50	1.00	1.00	8.5
Buccaneers vs. Pos.	2	1.50	1.00	2.00	2.00	5.0

It's never a good sign when the Rams struggle to move the ball or put points on the board at home since they have traditionally been built for playing on the artificial surface of the Edward Jones Dome. This week they have to play on natural grass in Tampa Bay against a Buccaneers defense that looks rejuvenated after a tough 2006 campaign. Tampa Bay has been limiting opposing kickers and that should continue in Week 3, making Wilkins a worrisome No. 1 or bench play this Sunday.

Team Defense - Weak Play

San Francisco 49ers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Yds/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
49ers Def.	2	16.5	326.5	3.5	1.00	1.00
Steelers Off.	2	30.0	392.5	1.0	0.50	0.50

San Francisco's 2-0 start can largely be credited to their defensive effort as the emerging group has recorded 3.5 sacks per game and forced 2.0 turnovers per contest as well. The club lost talented young linebacker Manny Lawson (knee) for the season in practice this week, and now they have to face the rampaging Steelers offense without a key piece of their defense. There should be better times ahead for San Francisco's "D," but in Week 3 they need to occupy a spot on your bench.