Fantasy Football Strategy

Strategy: Dealing with Under-performing Studs

September 20, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

It seemed like so long ago. You finally had one of the top picks in your draft and your choices seemed so clear. After years of watching your buddies ride the top fantasy studs to contention, you now had your chance and there was very little argument as to who should be in the top three:

San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson
St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson
Kansas City Chiefs running back Larry Johnson

Sure, there were questions. What would happen with a new head coach in San Diego? Was Jackson's production last year a fluke or a coming-out party? Will Johnson able to carry the load again, or is that sound the creaking of his bones?

In any event, visions of playoff domination dared to surface in your brain, and you had a hard time not rubbing your hands with glee on draft day.

Now here you are after Week 2, staring hard at your lineup.

Tomlinson: 68 rushing yards, 11 receptions for 66 yards and one - ONE! - rushing touchdown
Jackson: 118 rushing yards, four receptions for 39 yards and no - NO! - touchdowns
Johnson: 98 rushing yards, 10 receptions for 76 yards and another big fat zero in the score column (At least you can console yourself with the fact that he's on pace for more catches this year)

What in the name of holy Halas is going on?

Mad, desperate schemes start taking flight in your head. Maybe you should try to trade LT for an army of second-tier backs. Maybe that one guy will give up Dallas Cowboys running back Marion Barber III and another player to be named for Jackson. After all, Barber has three scores, and Dallas is looking like an offensive powerhouse so far...

Stop right there, my friend. Settle down. Take a step back from the NFL.com stats page and inhale. Remember why these guys are studs.

LT has gone up against two of the top-five rushing defenses to open the year. Chicago is allowing an average of 73.5 rushing yards and 0.5 scores per game, while New England leads the league with just 56 rushing yards and no touchdown allowed per game. In Week 3, he heads to Green Bay, a team allowing 98.5 yards per game to opposing backs. Then it's at Kansas City in Week 4, a team giving up 108 yards per game. Week 5 is at Denver, allowing 156 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Week 6 brings up Oakland at 144.5 yards with one score per game and leads them into the Bye. If you truly want to unload LT, look to do it then. After the Bye, San Diego has three teams in the top-10 of rushing yards allowed: Houston in Week 8, at Minnesota in Week 9 and Baltimore in Week 12. None of those three have yet allowed a rushing score. Don't be surprised if other owners look crazy at you for trading off the consensus No. 1 pick. There's a reason he went that high. Keep in mind, though, only two games have been played and it is unreal how much will change by Week 8.

Jackson has a better outlook. At Tampa Bay (119 yards and one score per game), at Dallas (92.5 ypg) and Arizona (92 yards and 1.3 scores per game) are coming up. However, the effects of left tackle Orlando Pace's absence have to be felt at some point, if they haven't already. When he went out last November, it affected the passing game more, so there's hope. With lower ranked run defense teams on the slate from Week 7 through Week 14, Jackson has a brighter outlook than the other two studs.

LJ also had the misfortune of running into the Bears' defense, in Week 2. The surprising Houston Texans, his Week 1 opponent, is third in the NFL for rushing yards allowed, with just 69 yards per game. Things may not look much better in Week 3 when Minnesota comes to town with their stifling run defense, ranked sixth in the league. After that it's at San Diego (112 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game), Jacksonville (182 yards and one touchdown per game), Cincinnati (166.5 yards and one score per game) and at Oakland (144.5 yards and one score per game). At the very least, this should bolster his trade value if you still want to go that route.

There are some other studs that were likely the first pick of owners during draft day. We'll recap them quickly:

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees - Ghastly beginning with a 1:3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Remember, though, he had a slow September in 2006 as well. It's too early to bail on him.
Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald - Seven catches for 87 yards in Week 2 gave some hope to owners. However, with Pittsburgh and Baltimore coming up, followed up by a surprisingly stingy St. Louis receiving defense (probably because teams are choosing to run all over them instead), things may take a while to gel.
New England Patriots running back Laurence Maroney - The Pats' aerial attack makes unloading Maroney a bad decision. As defenses gear towards stopping the pass, Maroney will start getting more touches. The next month brings some weaker run defenses like Buffalo, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas and Miami. Expect him to make some hay over this stretch.
New Orleans Saints running back Reggie Bush - Owners flocked to make Bush their first or second pick, a questionable decision in the first place. Remember, with Bush his true value is in leagues that award reception points. Only once last year did he crack the 100-yard rushing barrier and actually had a negative rushing total in one game. For many of his games he logged more reception yards than rushing yards and it should be little different this year.

What is the takeaway from this report? Should you dump your studs before they can do more damage or ride them out in the hopes they regain their form?

The odds say studs will remain studs, rather than you negotiating the precise trade that nets a better performer. Now, having said that, with risk comes reward. Both LT and LJ can be argued to have dim outlooks. An owner who swaps LT for Jackson might actually come out better in the end, as crazy as it sounds. It all depends on your tolerance for gambling.

In any event, you cannot use a sample size consisting of two games to make such a determination. There is a great deal of analysis to be done yet and a partner willing to tango. Get to work, fantasy owner, and put some projections to your studs. Whether you pull the trigger or not will determine your level of fortitude.