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AFC West Fantasy Outlook

September 20, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Ken Jager
Edited by Herija C. Green

AFC West

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Travis Henry, Denver Broncos: Henry posted another big game in last week's overtime win against the Oakland Raiders with 129 yards. He is averaging 133.5 yards the first two games, though still hasn't found the end zone. Don't let that concern you as he's due to reach pay dirt, and facing the Jacksonville Jaguars at home in Week 3 should result in another big game. Henry is a strong play and a mainstay in your lineup.
Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: As the Chiefs’ only real offensive threat, Johnson has been the victim of an anemic overall offensive team performance the first two games. His rushing numbers are a cause for concern (3.8 yards per rush and no touchdowns), but the bright side is that Johnson is also averaging five catches for 38 yards per game. Coming off a week facing the Chicago Bears tough defense, he faces another in the Minnesota Vikings this week. Still, he remains a No. 2 or No. 3 option as a weak play, but obviously still has upside.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: For the first time in his career, Tomlinson was held to less than 50 yards rushing in consecutive games. He amassed just 43 yards on the ground (2.4 per carry) and 15 yards receiving with no touchdowns. For whatever reason, Tomlinson's motor hasn't revved up this year, but it's way too early to give up on him. He faces the Green Bay Packers this week and is still a No. 1 option.
Wide Receiver Javon Walker, Denver Broncos: Walker is the premier Broncos receiver and his numbers prove it. Versus Oakland last week, quarterback Jay Cutler targeted Walker for 15 plays (19.5 percent), including four plays in the red zone (30.1 percent), for eight catches and 101 yards. With the emergence of fellow wide receiver Brandon Marshall, defenses may not be able to give him as much attention, leaving him available for more plays. Walker faces a good Jacksonville defense this week and is a No. 3 option as a weak play.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: Gates is the top play-making target, with heavy red-zone attention, for quarterback Philip Rivers and that doesn't figure to change anytime soon. Gates has had two big games to start the season, including his 77-yard, one-touchdown performance last week versus the New England Patriots. Expect another big game this week as Gates remains the top fantasy tight end as a solid No. 1 option.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Largely due to a poor team around him (excluding Johnson), Gonzalez is also getting poor results in the stat book (35.5 yards per game, no touchdowns). But something has to break with this offense soon, and Gonzalez is a popular target of quarterback Damon Huard and a likely benefactor. At home versus Minnesota this week could just be that elixir, as Gonzalez remains a solid No. 1 option on any team.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	2	286.5	1.00	1.50	8.0	0.00
Damon Huard	Kansas City Chiefs	2	171.5	0.50	1.50	0.5	0.00
Josh McCown	Oakland Raiders	2	193.0	1.50	2.50	15.5	0.00
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	2	184.5	1.00	1.50	2.5	0.00

Cutler - Cutler stumbled a bit in Week 2's overtime win versus Oakland, tossing two interceptions. Next up, Denver matches up against the Jacksonville pass defense, which has only given up an average 117 passing yards and no touchdowns in the first two games. Cutler's Broncos are the Jags' defense first real test in Week 3 and Cutler shouldn't be considered more than a weak No. 2 quarterback.

Huard - Huard threw for his first touchdown in Week 2, but he also tossed another interception as Kansas City couldn't get it going in the loss in Chicago. He has another tough assignment versus Minnesota in Week 3, which is averaging an opposing quarterback rating of 68.9. The bench remains Huard's familiar home as a weak play, and faint cries for quarterback Brodie Croyle are coming out of K.C.

McCown - McCown surprised us all by starting in Week 2 despite his finger and ankle injuries. And we're all still wondering why (74 yards, three interceptions and a rating of 44.0 against Denver). But there's hope in Week 3 at home versus the same Cleveland offense that let Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer pass for 401 yards and six touchdowns in Week 2. With more time to heal his injuries, McCown should bounce back this week, as he's a strong play as a No. 1 or No. 2 quarterback.

Rivers - Rivers has turned in a pair of ho-hum performances so far this season, the latest coming against New England with 179 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. His match up on the road in Green Bay isn’t likely to change that trend as the Packer pass defense is allowing a 64.9 quarterback rating so far this season. Rivers is a good bench candidate or as a weak No. 2 if you need him.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
LaMont Jordan	Oakland Raiders	2	25.50 (42.44)	1.00 (22.64)	114.5	0.50	4.50	44.5	0.00
Michael Turner	San Diego Chargers	2	6.50 (10.18)	1.00 (7.74)	22.0	0.00	1.00	7.0	0.00

Jordan - Jordan had a big day on the ground in Week 2 with 159 rushing yards, though he didn't reach the end zone. With a Cleveland defense that nearly gave up 50 points in Week 2, expect a big day for Jordan as the Browns try to recollect themselves in Week 3. He is a strong play as a No. 1 back in any format.

Turner - While Tomlinson continues to struggle, Turner isn't seeing any benefits from it, neither in yards nor touchdowns. Expect the Chargers to keep feeding the ball to Tomlinson against the tough Green Bay run defense in Week 3. Turner is a weak play and should be kept on your bench.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Brandon Marshall	Denver Broncos	2	7.50 (10.07)	1.50 (15.86)	5.00	67.0	0.50
Eddie Kennison	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1.00 (0.88)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Samie Parker	Kansas City Chiefs	2	5.50 (9.68)	1.00 (25.30)	3.50	34.0	0.00
Dwayne Bowe	Kansas City Chiefs	2	5.00 (8.80)	1.00 (25.30)	2.50	32.0	0.50
Ronald Curry	Oakland Raiders	2	8.50 (14.15)	1.00 (22.64)	6.00	72.5	0.50
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	2	5.00 (8.32)	0.50 (11.32)	1.50	36.0	0.50
Vincent Jackson	San Diego Chargers	2	5.50 (8.61)	0.50 (3.87)	3.50	40.5	0.00

Marshall - Marshall continues to get decent attention opposite Javon Walker. With 82 receiving yards in Week 2, he was targeted seven times (9.1 percent), two in the red zone (15.5 percent). At best, he is a weak No. 3 option versus Jacksonville in Week 3, but keep an eye on his production in the coming weeks.

Kennison - Kennsion (hamstring) and his injured hamstring will likely take another week off and might not even return in Week 4, diminishing his already low early-season fantasy value.

Parker - Parker did not have good game in Week 2 (three receptions for 20 yards) and seems to be getting lost in the Kansas City receiving shuffle with the emergence of Bowe and second-year wideout Jeff Webb. Parker is a weak play versus Minnesota in Week 3 and is best left on the bench.

Bowe - The rookie Bowe, starting in place of the injured Kennison, showed some flash in Week 2 with his leaping ability and hauled in his first touchdown of the season. While Bowe is still trying to prove himself, consider him a No. 3 option or injury replacement with a strong play versus the Vikings.

Curry - With just two catches for 12 yards in Week 2, Curry had an abysmal encore to his breakout Week 1 performance. But then again, so did the other Oakland receivers with a misfiring McCown behind center. Things look up for Curry in Week 3, however, against the lay-down Cleveland defense and should be considered a strong play as a No. 1 or No. 2 option.

Porter - Porter also suffered from McCown slinging duds in Week 2, but his only catch of the game was a 46-yard touchdown. Curry is the Cinderella on Oakland now, but Porter is a strong play as a No. 3 or flex option and is worthy of a free agent pickup in deep leagues for Week 3 against Cleveland.

Jackson - As far as offensive options go, Jackson isn't very high on the list. But Chargers' head coach Norv Turner is impressed with his play and would like to get him more involved in the offense. But until that happens, Jackson likely won't see much attention against Green Bay in Week 3 and should ride your bench or be at best an injury replacement.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Daniel Graham	Denver Broncos	2	2.50 (3.36)	0.00 (0.00)	2.00	16.5	0.00
Tony Scheffler	Denver Broncos	2	0.00 (0.00)	0.00 (0.00)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	2	4.50 (7.49)	0.00 (0.00)	3.00	20.5	0.00

Graham - While everyone seems to love Graham in Denver, he just isn't getting the type of fantasy production owners need. There are simply too many options on the Denver offense, as proven by him collecting just one catch for nine yards versus Oakland in Week 2. Against Jacksonville in Week 3, he won't likely see much more than that. Keep this weak play on the bench.

Scheffler - For the second straight week, Scheffler didn't make a scratch on the stat sheet. He shouldn't be on any fantasy radar, let alone your roster.

Miller - Miller had three catches for the second straight week, but has yet to see red zone action. The rookie could be an interesting flex option as a strong play against the Cleveland defense, but the likely better bet is to keep him on the bench.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	2	1.00	1.00	3.00	4.50	10.0
Dave Rayner	Kansas City Chiefs	1	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.00	4.0
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	2	2.00	2.00	0.50	2.50	3.5
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	2	2.00	2.00	0.00	0.50	2.0

Elam - Elam booted the game-winning field goal for the second straight week, this time on a 23-yarder in overtime against Oakland. He is averaging 10 points per game so far, and don't expect him to slow down versus Jacksonville in Week 3. Elam is a strong play as your No. 1 kicker.

Rayner - No matter what kicker you have on your team, the offense needs to get itself in position to score, and the Chiefs haven't been doing that. Don't expect much out of Rayner again as a week play versus the tough Minnesota defense in Week 3.

Janikowski - Janikowski is just one-for-five in his field goal tries this season, only connecting on a 38-yarder while missing a game-winning 52-yarder in overtime during Week 2's loss to Denver. As a testament to the confidence in Janikowski's abilities, he is a weak play versus Cleveland and deserves another bench-riding experience in Week 3.

Kaeding - The suddenly stale Chargers' offense isn't helping Kaeding's cause. Nor is Kaeding helping fantasy owners. He missed his only field goal try of the season (no attempts in Week 2) and is getting just two points per game. Again, Kaeding is a weak play versus Green Bay this week and should be bench-bound.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	2	10.0	2.00	2.5	0.00	0.00
Kansas City Chiefs	2	14.0	1.50	2.5	1.00	0.00
Oakland Raiders	2	29.5	2.00	2.0	0.50	0.50
San Diego Chargers	2	17.5	1.00	2.5	1.50	0.00

Broncos - The Broncos' defense has been outstanding versus the pass (62.5 yards per game), but soft against the run (156.0 yards per game). The trouble for Denver is that Jacksonville, their Week 3 foe, is built on a strong running game and a mediocre passing game. That said, the Denver defense has only given up 10 points per game and is averaging two interceptions. The Broncos are a strong play this week, but it might be worth putting them on the bench if you have a better option to go in their place.

Chiefs - The Chiefs' defense has given their offense a chance to win in both games this season by allowing a modest 14 points per game. They held Bears quarterback Rex Grossman in check during Week 2 picking off two passes, recording three sacks and picking up a fumble, but they had problems with running back Cedric Benson by allowing him 101 yards on the ground. Since Minnesota can't seem to get anything going so far, the Chiefs are a strong play in Week 3 as a No. 1 option.

Raiders - The 29.5 points allowed average this season is enough to scare any fantasy owner away from the Raiders' defense. But the big Oakland "D" is better than it looks on paper. They held Denver in check and pushed them into overtime in Week 2. This week, they face a shaky Cleveland offense (despite its 51-point outburst last week). The Raiders could turn things around this week and are a solid No. 1 option.

Chargers - After a great first week, the Chargers defense struggled in its 38-14 loss to New England last week, giving up 31 points, three touchdown passes and 144 yards on the ground. They face a Green Bay team with an iffy offense in Week 3. The Chargers should rebound in Week 3 on the road and is a strong play as a No. 1 option.