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AFC East Fantasy Outlook

September 20, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

AFC East

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Tom Brady, New England Patriots: Already an elite fantasy quarterback entering the 2007 season, Brady looks like he could challenge Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning for the top spot at that position. Brady was nearly flawless in New England's dismantling of the San Diego Chargers, completing over 80 percent of his passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns. He is as good as it gets right now, and he is our No. 1 quarterback this week against the Buffalo Bills.
Wide Receiver Randy Moss, New England Patriots: Brady's new favorite target was unstoppable for the second straight week as he caught eight passes for 105 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Moss' rededication to the game has returned him to a spot among the NFL's top fantasy receivers. He is a must-start as our top ranked receiver in Week 3.
Wide Receiver Laveranues Coles, New York Jets: The lone non-Patriot among the division's every week starters, Coles was relatively quiet against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 with just 57 yards receiving on six catches. He looks to have a good matchup against the Miami Dolphins and should remain active as a solid No. 2 receiver this week.
New England Patriots Defensive/Special Teams: Somewhat overlooked amid New England's incredible offensive performance in the first two weeks is the dominance of their defense. The team has registered eight sacks, forced three turnovers and they (or their special teams) have scored a touchdown in each of their first two games. Keep them in your lineup against a porous Buffalo offense.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
J.P. Losman	Buffalo Bills	2	125.5	0.00	0.50	25.5	0.00
Trent Green	Miami Dolphins	2	253.0	1.50	2.00	4.5	0.00
Chad Pennington	New York Jets	1	167.0	2.00	0.00	3.0	0.00

Losman - After showing some promise late in the 2006 season, Losman has been a complete bust through two games of 2007. His 125.5 yards per game average is the worst among NFL starters, and his 46 passes without a touchdown is third-worst. There's no silver lining for Losman as he faces a New England team that gave him fits last year. Bench him and start considering other options for your backup quarterback.

Green - The Dolphins have not been shy about airing it out with Green's 78 attempts ranking sixth in the NFL. He's done a decent job accumulating yardage, but his four interceptions raise some red flags. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Jets team that allowed Ravens backup quarterback Kyle Boller to complete nearly two-thirds of his passes and toss a couple of touchdowns. Green is a low-end No. 1 or good No. 2 quarterback with a strong play for Week 3.

Pennington - Pennington (ankle) gave way to backup quarterback Kellen Clemens in Week 2 and watched as the second-year pro threw for 260 yards while nearly leading the Jets to a come-from-behind victory over Baltimore. There's no controversy in the Big Apple according to head coach Eric Mangini, who says Pennington is the starter as long as he's healthy. Regardless of who gets the nod this week, they should remain benched against Miami.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Marshawn Lynch	Buffalo Bills	2	20.50 (41.00)	2.00 (57.02)	77.0	0.50	1.50	15.0	0.00
Ronnie Brown	Miami Dolphins	2	15.00 (24.36)	2.50 (31.03)	32.5	0.00	4.00	38.0	0.00
Jesse Chatman	Miami Dolphins	2	10.50 (17.05)	1.50 (18.62)	21.0	0.00	5.00	31.5	0.00
Laurence Maroney	New England Patriots	2	17.50 (27.34)	3.00 (24.11)	74.5	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Thomas Jones	New York Jets	2	21.50 (32.05)	2.50 (31.29)	54.5	0.00	1.50	13.0	0.00
Leon Washington	New York Jets	2	4.00 (5.96)	0.00 (0.00)	7.5	0.00	1.50	15.0	0.00

Lynch - The rookie back didn't have as much success in Week 2 as he did in his debut as he was held to just 64 yards on 18 carries. Lynch runs hard and appears to be the lone Buffalo player with any fantasy value at this juncture. You can bet the Patriots will be keying on him in Week 3, so play him only as a weak No. 2 or decent No. 3 with a weak play this Sunday.

Brown - A 1,000-yard rusher a season ago, Brown is off to an inauspicious start with just 65 rushing yards after two weeks. He's not seeing a lot of work on the ground (22 total carries), but he has done a solid job in the passing game (76 receiving yards). Brown ran all over the Jets in 2006 with 40 carries going for 237 yards and a touchdown in two meetings last season. This could be a big game for Brown so play him as a quality No. 3 back with a strong play.

Chatman - After logging 13 total touches in Week 1, Chatman saw his usage almost cut in half last Sunday as he got the ball just seven times. He's a risky No. 3 or injury replacement with a strong play this week.

Maroney - Maroney has not really emerged as true featured back following the departure of running back Corey Dillon. Instead, he finds himself sharing the load with running back Sammy Morris. Maroney is still getting the majority of the carries but not enough to keep him as an every week starter. However, he should get the call as a No. 2 fantasy back with a strong play this week.

Jones - It's been a rough couple of weeks for Jones as he has faced off against two of the league's best defenses in Baltimore and New England. The former Chicago Bear is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, and he's not contributing as a receiver out of the backfield. Give him a chance to make amends this week as a strong play No. 2 option against the Dolphins.

Washington - Washington didn't even get a touch in Week 2 outside of a six-yard punt return. Keep him benched this week.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Lee Evans	Buffalo Bills	2	6.00 (12.00)	0.00 (0.00)	2.00	11.0	0.00
Jerricho Cotchery	New York Jets	2	10.50 (15.65)	0.50 (6.26)	6.50	111.0	0.00
Donte' Stallworth	New England Patriots	2	4.00 (6.25)	0.00 (0.00)	1.50	19.0	0.00
Wes Welker	New England Patriots	2	9.50 (14.84)	1.50 (12.05)	7.00	76.0	0.50
Chris Chambers	Miami Dolphins	2	15.50 (25.17)	1.00 (12.41)	7.50	100.5	0.00
Marty Booker	Miami Dolphins	2	7.00 (11.37)	1.00 (12.41)	3.50	49.5	0.50

Evans - Evans turned in his second consecutive stinker in Week 2 with two receptions for 17 yards, which gives the Buffalo receiver a grand total of four catches and 22 yards for the 2007 campaign. Evans started 2006 with back-to-back, two-catch performances before getting on track in Week 3, so Evans owners will be hoping for a repeat of that trend this Sunday. However, it would be safer to keep him benched.

Cotchery - The Baltimore Ravens had no answers for Cotchery in Week 2 as the Jets' No. 2 receiver ran roughshod over their secondary for 165 yards on seven receptions. The fourth-year pro is building off of his strong 2006 season and could be ready to emerge as an every week starter in the near future. He suffered a shoulder injury against a Baltimore so monitor his status. If he's a go you can start him as a strong No. 2 fantasy receiver against Miami.

Stallworth - Arguably the lone disappointment thus far among New England's offseason additions, Stallworth has not gotten in synch with Brady as the Pro Bowl quarterback has targeted Moss on the deep balls and Welker underneath. Until he and Brady are on the same page keep Stallworth on the bench.

Welker - There haven't been any growing pains for Welker in New England as the former Dolphin is second on the team to Moss in both receptions (14) and receiving yards (152). He makes a decent No. 1 or excellent No. 2 option with a strong play in Week 3 against a Buffalo defense that has been hemorrhaging yardage over the first two games.

Chambers - The implementation of head coach Cam Cameron's pass-happy offense has to be a welcome sight to Chambers, who is averaging over 100 yards per game thus far in the young season. Chambers is seeing a ridiculous 15.5 targets per game, and although he hasn't reached pay dirt yet it seems to be just a matter of time. Start Chambers as a weak No. 2 or quality No. 3 wideout with a strong play against the Jets.

Booker - Miami's other receiver is still chugging along with four catches, 79 yards and a touchdown in the team's Week 2 loss. Booker is a strong play as a No. 3 receiver in Week 3.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Robert Royal	Buffalo Bills	2	1.00 (2.00)	0.00 (0.00)	1.00	8.5	0.00
Chris Baker	New York Jets	2	2.00 (2.98)	0.50 (6.26)	1.50	16.0	0.50
Benjamin Watson	New England Patriots	2	4.00 (6.25)	1.00 (8.04)	3.50	29.0	1.00
David Martin	Miami Dolphins	2	2.50 (4.06)	0.00 (0.00)	1.50	11.0	0.00

Royal - A complete non-factor in a Buffalo offense still looking to find its way, Royal should not be on your roster.

Baker - Baker is apparently an avid reader of my work as after we were dying to call him the "touchdown maker" in last week's analysis he went out and scored on a three-yard pass. Therefore I salute you and dub thee, Chris Baker "The Touchdown Maker!" Huzzah! Now then, play TDM as a weak No. 1 or flex option with a strong play against Miami.

Watson - Watson corralled his second touchdown reception in as many weeks as part of a five-catch, 49-yard performance against the Chargers on Sunday Night Football. The New England tight end is finding plenty of open spaces to operate in the team's high-powered offense, and his value is on the rise. Play him this week as a quality No. 1 option with a strong play.

Martin - Martin has yet to endear himself to the Miami fan base with a grand total of three catches for 22 yards over two games. He does have some talent, but until he gels with the rest of the Miami offense he should remain benched.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Rian Lindell	Buffalo Bills	2	1.00	1.00	1.00	0.50	2.5
Mike Nugent	New York Jets	2	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.00	4.5
Stephen Gostkowski	New England Patriots	2	5.00	5.00	1.50	1.00	8.0
Jay Feely	Miami Dolphins	2	1.50	1.50	2.00	2.00	7.5

Lindell - The Bills can't move the ball, which means Lindell can't score. Not a good situation for fantasy owners. Keep him off your roster.

Nugent - New York has had their problems matriculating the ball up and down the field, leaving Nugent with minimal scoring opportunities. Even though the Jets always seem to have Miami's number you should find other kicking options this Sunday, and leave Nugent on the pine.

Gostkowski - Gostkowski's missed field goal was practically the only blemish in New England's dismantling of San Diego last week. The Pats have racked up 76 points in two weeks but 60 of those came on touchdowns. A decrease in red zone efficiency would actually help Gostkowski and a bend but don't break (or at least break reluctantly) Buffalo defense could be just the thing. Start Gostkowski with confidence as a strong play in Week 3.

Feely - Miami's kicker has converted on all seven of his kicks this season and is averaging a respectable 7.5 points per game. One would think the team will continue to improve offensively as they assimilate to all their offseason changes, which should create more scoring chances for Feely. He makes a low-end No. 1 or bench option this week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Buffalo Bills	2	20.5	1.00	1.0	0.00	0.50
New York Jets	2	26.0	0.00	0.0	0.00	0.00
Miami Dolphins	2	26.5	1.00	1.5	0.00	0.00

Bills - Buffalo's defense tries hard but eventually wears down as the offense simply can't sustain drives. The team has also struggled to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks (two total sacks) while forcing just two turnovers. Going against a New England team that looked unstoppable Sunday night they shouldn't even warrant consideration in your lineup.

Jets - Talk about not making big plays on the defensive side of the ball, the Jets are the only team in the NFL to have not forced a single turnover in 2007. On top of that they are one of just two teams (New Orleans Saints) to have failed to record a quarterback sack. Not surprisingly they should be benched this week with a weak play against Miami.

Dolphins - Traditionally a strong defensive team year in and year out, Miami has done very little through their first two games with three sacks and just two turnovers combined. They were overmatched against the Dallas Cowboys last time out, but that should not be the case this week when they take on the struggling Jets. They could be played as a weak No. 1 but should preferably be benched.