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AFC North Fantasy Outlook

September 20, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Brad Wolf
Edited by Herija C. Green

AFC North

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Even though the Bengals lost, Palmer had the most prolific day of his young career last Sunday, throwing for 401 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions against the Cleveland Browns. It marked just the second time Palmer had topped 400 passing yards in his career. He's capable of turning in a performance like this in any game, which is why he is a must-start every week. In Week 3, Palmer faces a Seattle Seahawks defense that has allowed 254.5 yards, 0.5 touchdowns and 0.5 interceptions per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers: Parker has started the 2007 season with two straight 100-yard rushing games, and he has now rushed for more than 100 yards in five of his last six regular season contests. Parker should be started in all leagues this week against the San Francisco 49ers, who have allowed 88.0 rushing yards, 39.5 receiving yards and 0.5 total touchdowns per game to opposing running backs this season.
Wide Receiver Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: It no longer seems to be a question of whether Johnson will score a touchdown in a given week, but what his celebration will be when he scores. Johnson, like many of his Bengals teammates, busted out for a big game in Week 2 with 209 yards and two touchdowns. He is averaging 152 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game this season. Keep in mind, however, that he is a weak play this week against the Seahawks, so temper your expectations for "Ocho Cinco."
Wide Receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals: Not one to be outdone, Houshmandzadeh is doing a fine job keeping up with teammate Chad Johnson. He doesn't have the gaudy yardage numbers that Johnson does, but Houshmandzadeh is averaging 14.5 targets, 59.5 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game this season. Palmer is looking Houshmandzadeh's way more often so far this year than Johnson, both in general and in the red zone. However, he is a weak play as a No. 2 receiver this week in Seattle.
Tight End Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: Heap rebounded from a poor game in Week 1 with seven receptions, 76 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Still, Heap does not have a favorable matchup against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 3, and he is a weak play as a No. 1 tight end. The Cardinals have limited opposing tight ends to only 2.0 receiving yards and no touchdowns per game this season, by far the stingiest totals in the NFL.
Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: Winslow posted the first 100-yard game of his career in Week 2, hauling in six receptions for 100 yards and a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals. Winslow should be in your active lineup, but he is a weak play against the Oakland Raiders. Oakland has yielded just 27.5 yards and no touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends this year.
Baltimore Ravens Defensive/Special Teams: The Ravens defense has allowed 17.0 offensive points per game so far this season, but they have contributed plenty of fantasy points with 2.5 sacks, 1.0 interception and 1.0 fumble recovery per game. They haven't played like the No. 1 fantasy defense you drafted them to be yet, but you should keep the Baltimore defense in your lineup this week against the Cardinals.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Steve McNair	Baltimore Ravens	1	203.0	0.00	1.00	0.0	0.00
Derek Anderson	Cleveland Browns	2	256.0	3.00	1.00	-0.5	0.00
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	201.5	2.50	0.50	6.0	0.00

McNair - McNair (groin) did not start Week 2 due to a groin injury, and it's still up in the air whether he will see action in Week 3. Whether it's Kyle Boller or McNair under center for Baltimore this week, neither should be considered better than a No. 2 quarterback or Bench option. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 203.5 yards, 0.5 touchdowns, and zero interceptions against Arizona this season.

Anderson - He exploded onto the scene in his first start of the season in Week 2, with 328 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Anderson is a strong play as a No. 2 fantasy quarterback against Oakland, which has allowed 279.0 yards, 2.0 touchdowns and 2.0 interceptions per game to opposing quarterbacks.

Roethlisberger - "Big Ben" has put together two strong games to start the 2007 season. The most significant sign that he has put a disappointing 2006 campaign behind him is that he's only thrown one interception so far this year, after leading the league with 23 picks last season. Roethlisberger projects as a No. 1 quarterback this week against San Francisco. The 49ers have yielded 235 yards, 1.0 touchdown and 1.0 interception per game to opposing quarterbacks this year.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Willis McGahee	Baltimore Ravens	2	25.00 (34.99)	5.00 (34.86)	87.0	0.00	2.50	20.0	0.50
Rudi Johnson	Cincinnati Bengals	2	25.00 (37.71)	4.00 (43.94)	84.0	0.00	3.50	29.5	0.50
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	2	20.50 (34.75)	3.00 (55.09)	125.0	0.50	1.00	5.5	0.00

McGahee - In Week 2, McGahee improved slightly on his Week 1 performance by approaching 100 rushing yards and finding the end zone against the New York Jets. He will face Arizona's defense this week, which has performed well against opposing running backs this year. The Cardinals are allowing just 70.5 rushing yards, 34.5 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdown per game. Use McGahee as a No. 2 or 3 fantasy running back this week.

Johnson - No matter how many yards Palmer racks up through the air, Johnson remains an integral piece of the Bengals offense. He has a nice matchup against Seattle, which has allowed 106.5 rushing yards, 50.5 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs this season. Johnson should be used as a No. 1 running back in Week 3.

Lewis - Coming off his best performance since Week 11 last year, when he rushed for 91 yards and three scores, Lewis is a strong play this week against Oakland. The Raiders defense has allowed 137.5 rushing yards, 22.5 receiving yards and 1.0 touchdown per game to running backs this season. Look for Lewis to continue his bounce-back campaign with a good performance in Week 3.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Mark Clayton	Baltimore Ravens	2	2.00 (2.80)	0.50 (3.49)	0.50	-0.5	0.00
Derrick Mason	Baltimore Ravens	2	12.00 (16.79)	1.50 (10.46)	7.50	65.0	0.00
Braylon Edwards	Cleveland Browns	2	11.00 (18.64)	0.50 (9.18)	5.50	97.5	1.00
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	2	5.50 (9.32)	1.00 (18.36)	3.00	36.0	1.00
Hines Ward	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	7.50 (12.11)	2.00 (15.92)	4.00	53.0	0.50
Santonio Holmes	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	5.00 (8.07)	0.00 (0.00)	2.50	54.0	0.50

Clayton - Fantasy owners who drafted Clayton as their No. 2 receiver this season are shaking their heads in consternation, as the talented young wideout has been severely hampered by a toe injury. He is expected to return to the starting lineup in Week 3, but you should confirm he is actually going to see significant action before you activate him in your lineup.

Mason - Mason has seen his production increase with the absence of Clayton from the Ravens lineup. His eight receptions in Week 2 matched his top performance from 2006, and McNair should continue to look his way. Mason is a strong play but only as an injury replacement this week against Arizona, which has allowed an average of 167.0 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game to opposing receivers this year.

Edwards - Edwards' breakout season got a jump start in Week 2, when he caught eight passes for a career-high 146 yards and two touchdowns. He is a strong play as a No. 1 receiver in Week 3 against Oakland. The Raiders have yielded 229.0 yards and 2.0 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers this season.

Jurevicius - Head coach Romeo Crennel likes to call Jurevicius' number in the red zone, where Jurevicius can use his 6-foot-5 frame to establish position and win jump balls. Jurevicius is a strong play as a No. 3 receiver or injury replacement this week.

Ward - He is a consistent bet to top 50 receiving yards each game this season, and he should regularly find the end zone. Ward is a strong play in Week 3 against a Seattle defense that is yielding 174 yards per game to opposing wide receivers. Use him as a No. 2 or No. 3 receiver this week.

Holmes - Holmes has been matching Ward stride for stride this season, as he continues to establish himself as an important option in the Steelers passing attack. The Seahawks defense has not allowed an opposing wideout to score a touchdown yet this season, but Holmes may just break that streak in Week 3. He is a strong play this week as a No. 2 or No. 3 wide receiver.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Reggie Kelly	Cincinnati Bengals	2	2.00 (3.02)	0.50 (5.49)	1.00	10.5	0.00
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	3.50 (5.65)	0.50 (3.98)	3.00	34.5	0.50

Kelly - In a week when the Bengals scored 45 points, Kelly, Cincinnati's No. 1 tight end, caught just one pass for eight yards. That tells you all you need to know about how Kelly plays into the Bengals offensive game plans. He is a weak play and should be benched this week against Seattle.

Miller - The disturbing thing about Miller's situation for fantasy owners is that backup tight end Matt Spaeth is averaging one red zone target and one touchdown per game. Keep an eye on this, but Spaeth might have supplanted Miller as the Steelers primary tight end option in the red zone. Despite his decreased action in the red zone, use Miller as a weak No. 1 tight end this week.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Matt Stover	Baltimore Ravens	2	2.00	2.00	2.50	2.00	8.0
Shayne Graham	Cincinnati Bengals	2	3.50	3.50	2.00	1.50	8.0
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	2	3.50	3.50	1.50	1.50	8.0
Jeff Reed	Pittsburgh Steelers	2	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00	12.0

Stover - Stover has averaged 8.0 kicking points per game this season, and he faces an Arizona defense that has yielded 8.0 kicking points per game to opposing kickers. Simple mathematics tells us Stover has a good chance to register 8.0 kicking points this week. Therefore, use Stover as a No. 1 or bench kicker this week.

Graham - The Bengals offense should continue to put plenty of points on the board, and Graham is a strong play this week against Seattle. The Seahawks defense has allowed 3.0 field goal attempts and 8.5 kicking points per game to opposing kickers this season.

Dawson - Against Oakland this week, Dawson is a strong play as a bottom-tier No. 1 kicker. The Raiders have allowed 11.5 kicking points per game this season, tied for most in the NFL.

Reed - Reed leads all NFL kickers with 12.0 kicking points per game this season, and he has been perfect on extra point and field goal attempts. He is a strong play in Week 3 against San Francisco, which has allowed 7.5 kicking points per game this year.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Cincinnati Bengals	2	32.5	1.50	1.0	2.00	0.50
Cleveland Browns	2	39.5	1.00	1.0	1.00	0.00
Pittsburgh Steelers	2	5.0	1.00	5.0	1.50	0.00

Bengals - The Bengals defense showed what they were made of in Week 2, allowing the soft Cleveland offense to score a ridiculous 51 points. Needless to say, the Cinncinnati defense is a weak play against Seattle and should be benched.

Browns - Despite allowing the Bengals to score 45 points last week, the Browns defense is actually a strong play in Week 3 against Oakland. The Raiders offense has allowed 3.0 sacks and 3.0 turnovers per game this season. Use the Browns as a low-end No. 1 defense this week.

Steelers - The Steelers have had one of the best fantasy defenses so far in 2007, except they have failed to find the end zone on defense or special teams. Pittsburgh's defense is a strong play in Week 3 against the 49ers, who have scored 18.5 offensive points, allowed 3.5 sacks and committed 1.5 turnovers per game this year.

Author Bio

Brad Wolf

Brad Wolf's dream of becoming a major league baseball player died when he was cut from his college team... twice. With his dreams shattered and his life in shambles, he picked up a pen (okay, it was a keyboard, but "pen" sounds more poetic) and found that writing about sports can be almost as enjoyable as playing them. Brad is a Writer for KFFL's MLB and NFL content and has been with the site since 2004.