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A Win in Week 1? Don't Get Complacent

September 13, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Kenneth Humphrey
Edited by Cory J. Bonini

For any fantasy owner, the waiver wire is a known commodity, even for first-year players. However, what is often overlooked is the way successful owners use the waiver system.

Last weekend demonstrated the necessity of knowing which players remain unclaimed in your league. Before the dust settled on Week 1, New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning (shoulder) and running back Brandon Jacobs (knee) were announced as no-shows for the near future. (How near that future is depends on who is speaking.) On many teams both players were starters or, at worst, No. 2 guys, leaving their owners scrambling to find replacements. Raise your hand if you were online Sunday afternoon desperately looking at available players.

Raise your other hand if you discovered that another owner picked up the respective backups before you got there, because that can sting.

In the spirit of what is essentially a grown-up game of musical chairs, albeit without the funky music, we'll discuss ways to make sure you're at the head of the line when a star goes down, or when a nobody comes up.

Definition

First we need to level the playing field by defining what is meant in this report by the term "waiver wire." Many leagues will institute a process that essentially locks out dropped players for a time period before another owner can claim them. This is a nod to parity. If two owners claim the same player sitting on waivers, the one with the worse record will be awarded the claim. Once a player clears waivers, then he is fair game to anyone. Oftentimes the term "waiver" is also used to describe the entire player free-agent pool, although it is not technically correct. Free agents can be claimed at any time with no waiting period.

Basic Strategy

How does the waiver wire or free-agent pool play into your favor? Well, there's the scenario outlined above, the most obvious and common use. When you have players down due to injury or Bye weeks, you need to replace their production. If your bench is weak, scan the list looking for someone to shore up your positions. Once a suitable player is selected, then it becomes a waiting game as to whether he'll pass waivers and fall into your lap.

In addition, it's common sense to watch all players in the NFL. Sometimes they come from nowhere and start producing. It happens every year. Sometimes a few experts will notice and tag them as sleepers in the hopes to be the first. Other times it is completely unexpected. In 2006, very few owners thought to draft New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marques Colston. Yet by Week 3, Colston's name was starting to get noticed. By the year's end he had become a strong No. 2 for most teams.

San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates is a deadlock high pick now, but going back to 2004, research the number of leagues where he went undrafted.

These "out-of-the-blue" finds occur with owners who scan the stat lines on Sunday nights, looking for a surprise performance. Try it. Watch for a player that stands out during Sunday. Check him out, check schedule, check supporting cast - just as you would do when creating your draft board. If the outlook is good, determine if you have room on your roster to stash him there. In addition to the aforementioned Colston and Gates, some other names that emerged from the free-agent pool in recent years:

Washington Redskins tight end Chris Cooley and running back Ladell Betts
Chicago Bears wide receiver Bernard Berrian
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Heath Miller and running back Willie Parker

These were players that went mostly undrafted during their breakout respective season. Owners that frequented the free-agent pool were in position pick them up when the points started coming. Now, in 2007, these same names appeared on many draft boards, and owners begin anew the search for the next find. It's an endless cycle.

Bad Strategy

What you should NOT do is scour the waiver wire after Week 1 looking to replace Detroit Lions wide receiver Roy Williams because he only logged four catches and 20 yards against a bad Oakland Raiders team. Knee-jerk actions like that result in significant punches to your fantasy card and will not be tolerated. Week 1 statistics are simply too small of a sample group to provide decision-level predictions.

What Week 1 can be good for, however, is to begin populating your watch list. Take note of hidden players in order to initiate the evaluation process, players that may not have shown much in the way of stats last weekend but did show promise. Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Demetrius Williams or Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Sidney Rice might fit that profile. Run and check your free-agent pool. Track their progress over the next month. When another owner finally notices the production increase and tries to pick one of them up, they'll find out you were there first.