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AFC North Fantasy Outlook

September 13, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Brad Wolf
Edited by Herija C. Green

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Palmer showed why he is a must-start quarterback Week 1 against the Baltimore Ravens, passing for 194 yards and two touchdowns against one of the NFL's best defenses. In Week 2, Palmer faces the Cleveland Browns, who allowed 161 passing yards and four touchdowns to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. Palmer is a strong play as the top quarterback option this week.
Running Back Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers: Parker rushed for the fourth-most yards in the NFL in Week 1, piling up 109 rushing yards against the Cleveland Browns. He is a strong play against the Buffalo Bills, who allowed 153 rushing yards and 44 receiving yards to the Denver Broncos running backs last week.
Wide Receiver Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals: "Ocho Cinco" busted out his yellow Hall of Fame jacket after he found the end zone in Week 1 against Baltimore. In addition to the touchdown, Johnson had 95 receiving yards and was targeted nine times. He is the top wide receiver option in fantasy football this week against the weak Cleveland defense.
Tight End Todd Heap, Baltimore Ravens: Heap was in the middle of the action for the Ravens offense in Week 1, but not always for reasons that would please his fantasy owners. Heap was flagged for an offensive pass interference penalty to negate a touchdown, and he was unable to haul in what appeared to be a catchable touchdown pass at the end of the game. Despite these woes, Heap had four catches for 29 yards and was targeted six times by quarterback Steve McNair. Keep Heap in your lineup this week against the New York Jets as a No. 1 tight end.
Tight End Kellen Winslow, Cleveland Browns: Fantasy owners who drafted Winslow hoping he'd be a top tight end this year got exactly what they expected in Week 1. Winslow was third among NFL tight ends with 83 receiving yards. He caught four passes and was targeted nine times. Winslow is a No. 1 tight end option this week, as he should be for most of the season.
Baltimore Ravens Defensive/Special Teams: Baltimore's defense forced two turnovers, recorded a sack and scored a special teams touchdown in Week 1 against a tough opponent. They are still a No. 1 must-start defense in Week 2, but be advised that they are a weak play against the Jets. The Ravens should still post quality fantasy numbers, but perhaps not quite up to their usual high standards.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Steve McNair	Baltimore Ravens	1	203.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0
Derek Anderson	Cleveland Browns	1	184.0	1.0	1.0	-1.0	0.0
Ben Roethlisberger	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	161.0	4.0	0.0	2.0	0.0

McNair - McNair (groin) did not have a great fantasy performance in Week 1, throwing for 203 yards and failing to find the end zone. He suffered a groin injury against the Bengals and may miss the Ravens Week 2 game. Keep an eye on McNair's status, but he's no better than a low-end No. 2 quarterback this week against the Jets.

Anderson - With quarterback Charlie Frye being traded to the Seattle Seahawks, the Cleveland quarterback situation is murky. Will quarterback Brady Quinn get the Week 2 start against Cincinnati, or will head coach Romeo Crennel opt for Anderson? Only time will tell, but here's hoping the Browns keep Quinn on the bench until after the team's bye in Week 7 to aid in his development. There's nothing worse than throwing a talented young signal-caller into the fire and watching his growth be forever stunted. Now that I'm off my soap box, neither Cleveland quarterback makes a good option in Week 2, and you should keep both Anderson and Quinn on your bench.

Roethlisberger - Roethlisberger exploded out of the gate in Week 1, like a high-powered motorcycle in downtown Pittsburgh. Despite only throwing for 161 yards, Roethlisberger threw four touchdown passes to four different receivers, and he was not intercepted. In Week 2, he faces a Bills defense that allowed 304 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception in Week 1. All signs are pointing to another big game, and Roethlisberger is a strong play against Buffalo.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Willis McGahee	Baltimore Ravens	1	22.00 (29.53)	3.00 (20.69)	77.0	0.0	3.0	34.0	0.0
Rudi Johnson	Cincinnati Bengals	1	22.00 (41.93)	2.00 (50.00)	50.0	0.0	3.0	26.0	0.0
Jamal Lewis	Cleveland Browns	1	13.00 (22.62)	2.00 (66.33)	35.0	0.0	2.0	11.0	0.0

McGahee - McGahee owners weren't happy to see Musa Smith rush for 30 yards and a touchdown on five carries Monday night in Cincinnati. Smith doesn't appear to be a goal-line vulture, however, as his touchdown run came from outside the 5-yard line. McGahee had a decent start to his Baltimore career, recording more than 100 total yards. McGahee faces the Jets, who allowed 134 yards and one touchdown to New England Patriots running backs in Week 1. McGahee is a low-end No. 1 or high-end No. 2 running back in Week 2.

Johnson - Johnson had a tough assignment in Week 1, facing the stout Ravens defense. Expect his performance to improve in Week 2, when he lines up against Cleveland. The Browns allowed 172 total yards to running backs in Week 1, and Johnson is decent option as a No. 2 running back this week. He might get off to a slow start this season, but by the end of the year his numbers should be back at their usual levels.

Lewis - In Week 1, Lewis turned in a performance that could epitomize his season. He rushed for 35 yards, added 11 receiving yards and did not score a touchdown. The good news is that Lewis got the got the ball on two of the Browns three plays inside the 5-yard line. The bad news is that he was unable to convert either opportunity. Lewis is no better than a No. 3 running back in Week 2 against the Bengals, who allowed 107 rushing yards, 62 receiving yards and one touchdown to running backs last week.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Mark Clayton	Baltimore Ravens	1	2.00 (2.68)	1.00 (6.90)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Derrick Mason	Baltimore Ravens	1	12.00 (16.11)	1.00 (6.90)	7.0	76.0	0.0
T.J. Houshmandzadeh	Cincinnati Bengals	1	12.00 (22.87)	1.00 (25.00)	9.0	50.0	1.0
Braylon Edwards	Cleveland Browns	1	8.00 (13.92)	0.00 (0.0)	3.0	49.0	0.0
Joe Jurevicius	Cleveland Browns	1	6.00 (10.44)	0.00 (0.0)	2.0	28.0	0.0
Hines Ward	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	6.00 (10.05)	1.00 (8.07)	3.0	51.0	1.0
Santonio Holmes	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	4.00 (6.70)	0.00 (0.0)	2.0	55.0	1.0

Clayton - Clayton rewarded fantasy owners who kept him in their active lineups in Week 1 with a goose egg, and not one of the golden variety. Clayton failed to catch a pass, and he was limited due to his ankle injury. He was targeted once inside the 5-yard line, and, when healthy, Clayton should be able to use his size to be a formidable red-zone threat. Until he's at full strength, however, Clayton is just a flex position or bench option.

Mason - Mason looked rejuvenated in Week 1, grabbing seven receptions for 76 yards. If McNair starts in Week 2, expect him to continue looking Mason's way. Feel free to use Mason as a No. 2 or No. 3 wide receiver this week, as the Jets allowed an astounding 268 yards and two touchdowns to opposing wideouts in Week 1.

Houshmandzadeh - Houshmandzadeh played the role of a possession receiver Monday night against Baltimore, catching nine passes for 50 yards and a touchdown. Houshmandzadeh was targeted 12 times in Week 1, more than Chad Johnson. Expect Palmer to continue targeting his two top receivers shamelessly this season. The Bengals should air it out in Cleveland, and Houshmandzadeh is a mid-range No. 1 wide receiver this week.

Edwards - Edwards turned in a decent performance in Week 1 against Pittsburgh, but all the uncertainty surrounding the Browns quarterback situation makes him only a flex option or injury replacement against the Bengals in Week 2. Cincinnati allowed just 131 yards to opposing wide receivers last week.

Jurevicius - The 10th-year receiver had an unspectacular Week 1 with the Browns as he totaled just two catches for 28 yards. Maybe a switch to Anderson at quarterback will help, but keep Jurevicius on your bench until there is actually some evidence of improvement.

Ward - Ben Roethlisberger spread the ball around effectively in Week 1, but he still found Ward, his favorite target, the most. The Bills yielded 236 yards and one touchdown to opposing receivers in Week 1, making Ward a strong play as a No. 2 wide receiver this week.

Holmes - Holmes is the big-play threat in the Steelers passing attack, and he hauled in two receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Roethlisberger should continue to look his way against Buffalo this week, and Holmes is a strong play as a No. 1 receiver. That's right, we're recommending Holmes slightly over Hines Ward this week. Could a changing of the guard be on the horizon?

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Reggie Kelly	Cincinnati Bengals	1	1.00 (1.91)	0.00 (0.0)	1.0	13.0	0.0
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	4.00 (6.70)	1.00 (8.07)	4.0	35.0	1.0

Kelly - As expected, Carson Palmer was too busy firing darts to Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to check down to Kelly in Week 1. Even though the Browns allowed 106 yards and two scores to tight ends last week, Kelly is a weak play against Cleveland in Week 2. Palmer simply doesn't throw to the tight end enough to make Kelly relevant for fantasy football.

Miller - Roethlisberger connected with two of his tight ends, Miller and Matt Spaeth, for touchdown passes in Week 1. Spaeth shouldn't vulture many scores from Miller, and he remains a top red zone target for the Steelers. However, he faces a Bills defense that defended the tight end position well last week, allowing just 24 yards and no touchdowns. Because of these factors, Miller is a weak play.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Matt Stover	Baltimore Ravens	1	2.0	2.0	2.0	2.0	8.0
Shayne Graham	Cincinnati Bengals	1	1.0	1.0	3.0	2.0	7.0
Phil Dawson	Cleveland Browns	1	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	1.0
Jeff Reed	Pittsburgh Steelers	1	4.0	4.0	2.0	2.0	10.0

Stover - Stover is looking like a top-10 fantasy kicker once again this season. In Week 2 against the Jets, Stover is a smart start as a No. 1 kicker. New York gave up eight kicking points to the Patriots last week.

Graham - Graham aggravated his leg injury in Week 1 against Baltimore, but it looks as though he'll be ready to play in Week 2 against Cleveland. Make sure he's healthy, and use Graham as a solid No. 1 kicker this week.

Dawson - Dawson, like the entire Browns offense, struggled in Week 1. This should once again be the case in Week 2. Use Dawson this week only if you have no other options, but it's best to leave him on your bench and find a starting kicker elsewhere.

Reed - Reed should continue to benefit from the Steelers rejuvenated offense. He is a strong play as a No. 1 kicker in Week 2 against a Buffalo defense that allowed three field goals and nine kicking points last week.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Cincinnati Bengals	1	14.0	2.0	2.0	4.0	1.0
Cleveland Browns	1	34.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	0.0
Pittsburgh Steelers	1	7.0	2.0	6.0	3.0	0.0

Bengals - The Bengals defense took advantage of a sub-par Baltimore offense in Week 1, forcing six turnovers, recording two sacks and scoring a touchdown. Despite a seemingly ideal matchup against Cleveland, Cincinnati is a weak play as a No. 1 defense in Week 2.

Browns - The Browns defense was victimized by Pittsburgh in Week 1 and things don't appear to be getting any easier this week. Keep them far away from your lineup this Sunday.

Steelers - The Pittsburgh defense came out strong in Week 1, with five turnovers, three sacks and only seven offensive points allowed. Look for that trend to continue in Week 2 against Buffalo, as the Steelers defense is our top defensive unit and a strong play.

Author Bio

Brad Wolf

Brad Wolf's dream of becoming a major league baseball player died when he was cut from his college team... twice. With his dreams shattered and his life in shambles, he picked up a pen (okay, it was a keyboard, but "pen" sounds more poetic) and found that writing about sports can be almost as enjoyable as playing them. Brad is a Writer for KFFL's MLB and NFL content and has been with the site since 2004.