Strong Plays, Weak Plays - Week 1

September 7, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Welcome to another year of KFFL's "Strong Plays, Weak Plays" feature. Here, we'll identify strong matchups of interest that you can exploit as well as determine a few weak matchups in which you might want to consider benching your normal starter in favor of a backup. Our intention is not to tell you the obvious, such as "Start LaDainian Tomlinson!" or "Start Peyton Manning!" Instead, it is to point out some matchups involving players that aren't considered fantasy stars. Of course, we'll sometimes highlight a top fantasy player's matchup if it is an especially noteworthy strong or weak play.

Important, Please Read! Remember, just because a player has a strong-play matchup does not mean that it is an automatic endorsement as a starter. It does provide you with some valuable information to make decisions, though. As an example, some players with the "Strong Play" tag may still be a No. 4 fantasy wideout and shouldn't be started ahead of your normal starters. He just may have greater potential than normal but not enough to warrant a definite benching of someone else for him. Conversely, if a player is on the "Weak Play" list, he may not be an automatic bench, either. A stud won't have an easy matchup every week. However, he's a stud because he can overcome the weak-play situation.

QUARTERBACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Steve McNair, Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Fum Lost/G
McNair	16	191	1	0.75	7.4	0.06	0.1
Bengals vs. Pos.	16	252	1.5	1.19	13	0.06	0.1

The days of McNair being an elite fantasy quarterback are already a distant memory, having lost much of the mobility that made him a dual threat. However, that does not mean McNair can't hold value in select situations, like facing a Bengals defense that was largely terrible a season ago and made no appreciable strides towards improvement during the offseason (in fact, they may have regressed). In his two meetings with Cincinnati in 2006, McNair averaged 218 yards passing, 0.5 touchdowns and zero interceptions per game. While he may not be the flashiest option, McNair would make a nice fill-in if your regular quarterback is facing a tough matchup.

RUNNING BACKS - STRONG PLAYS

Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
James	16	72	0.38	2.38	14	0	0.2
49ers vs. Pos.	16	115	1.12	6.12	50	0.12	0.2

Those who gave up too quickly on The Edge last season may not have noticed that he finished the season running strong as he gained 464 yards in five December contests, including three games of over 100 yards. One of those efforts (29 carries, 105 yards) came in a 26-20 Cardinals win against the same 49ers club he'll be facing in Week 1. He may not be the same player he was during his time with the Indianapolis Colts, but for 60 minutes this Monday night look for him to turn back the clock and play like a No. 1 fantasy back.

DeShaun Foster, Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Foster	14	64	0.21	2.29	11	0	0.1
Rams vs. Pos.	16	135	1.25	3.75	32	0.06	0.4

Apparently, Foster isn't just Australian for beer, mate, but also for underappreciated fantasy running back. Even though he was written off in lieu of running back DeAngelo Williams, Foster is still set to get the starting nod in Week 1 against the woefully inadequate run defense of the Rams. Last year Foster appeared on his way to a huge game (nine carries, 63 yards) before being felled by an elbow injury. If he runs like that again he could eclipse the century mark. That would be nice production if you can find a spot for him as a low-end No. 2 or flex player.

WIDE RECEIVERS - STRONG PLAYS

Darrell Jackson, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Jackson	13	4.85	74	0.77	0
Cardinals vs. Pos.	16	12	159	1	0.1

Talk about a guy with something to prove, D-Jax was jettisoned by the Seattle Seahawks to a team within the same division, which is usually a cardinal sin of trading. When healthy, Jackson is still among the best in the business, and he has a nose for the touchdown, a highly admirable trait in the fantasy realm. Like many others, he torched the Cardinals last season to the tune of five catches, 92 yards and one touchdown per game. Given his injury history you should take advantage of a healthy Jackson and slot him into your lineup as a No. 1 fantasy receiver this week.

Joey Galloway, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Galloway	16	3.88	66	0.44	0
Seahawks vs. Pos.	16	11	148	1.12	0.2

With apologies to Buffalo Bills wide receiver Lee Evans, there may not be another wideout in fantasy sports that more frequently follows up a 150-yard, two-touchdown performance with one catch for six yards the next. Galloway is truly a feast or famine type of player, which means it's especially important to analyze the opposition. This week, Galloway faces a Seahawks defense that was victimized repeatedly by opposing receivers last season, including Galloway himself (eight catches, 118 yards, one touchdown). Looks like the type of matchup that whets his appetite, making Galloway a low No. 1 to high No. 2 fantasy receiver.

Joe Horn, Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Horn	10	3.7	68	0.4	0
Vikings vs. Pos.	16	14	189	0.56	0.3

From fantasy stud to near irrelevance in just three years, the veteran Horn clearly looks to be on the downside of his career. However, he finds himself in a good spot this week to do some damage as he is quarterback Joey Harrington's most reliable option in the passing game against a team that absolutely stifles the run. So assuming Kansas City Chiefs head coach Herman Edwards was right and team's do "play to win the game" it follows that the Falcons will attack a suspect Vikings secondary early and often. He's a good guy top plug in this Sunday as a solid No. 2 wideout.

TIGHT ENDS - STRONG PLAYS

Randy McMichael, St. Louis Rams vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
McMichael	16	3.88	40.0	0.19	0
Panthers vs. Pos.	16	4.69	50.6	0.38	0

Once an upper-tier fantasy option at tight end during his team with Miami Dolphins, McMichael will be looking to prove he's still a reliable option at the position operating in an offense with many more weapons. He gets a nice matchup to open his Rams career as he faces a Panthers club that struggled to contain opposing tight ends in 2006. With the majority of their efforts likely to be on slowing down running back Steven Jackson, McMichael could be a weak No. 1 or a strong No. 2 fantasy tight end.

PLACE KICKERS - STRONG PLAYS

Josh Scobee, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Scobee	16	2.0	1.6	2.6	2.6	7.4
Titans vs. Pos.	16	2.0	1.7	2.7	2.6	7.6

An excellent 2006 season by Scobee seemed to get lost in the shuffle, even though his 7.4 points per game was good for sixth best in the NFL. The Jaguars generally play much better at home than on the road, which combined with a matchup against one of the NFL's most generous defenses from a season ago, make Scobee a top-ranked fantasy kicker this week.

TEAM DEFENSES - STRONG PLAYS

Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Seahawks Def.	16	19.7	2.6	0.8	0.9
Buccaneers Off.	16	13.2	2.1	1.1	0.9

Seattle draws one of the NFL's poorest offenses in Week 1 as Tampa Bay scored the second-fewest points in the league last year. While they may be better this year, Seattle is one of the most difficult places to play and the Seahawks do a fantastic job of getting to the quarterback (3.5 sacks per home game in 2006) thanks in part to a raucous home crowd. In what appears likely to be one of the NFL's most lopsided affairs in Week 1, start Seattle as a strong No. 1 defense.

QUARTERBACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup	Games	Pass Yards/G	Pass TDs/G	INTs/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Fum Lost/G
Rivers	16	212	1.38	0.56	3.1	0	0.1
Bears vs. Pos.	16	211	1.12	1.5	3.9	0.06	0.6

One of the most talented offenses in the NFL is headed by Rivers, who many believe is ready to emerge as an upper-echelon quarterback this season. While this may indeed be the case, don't expect Rivers to come out of the gate with a big performance against what many consider to be the best defense in the league. The Bears put pressure on the passer and swarm to the ball, two things that can rattle even a poised veteran. There are going to be plenty of weeks where Rivers gets the green light for your starting lineup, but this isn't one of them so seek your fortunes elsewhere this Sunday.

RUNNING BACKS - WEAK PLAYS

Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Lewis	16	71	0.56	1.12	7.2	0	0.1
Steelers vs. Pos.	16	74	0.56	4.94	33	0	0.2

Jumping from the Ravens to the Browns to jumpstart your dwindling offensive productivity is roughly akin to leaving Poison to join Whitesnake because you feel you're not being taken seriously as a musician. Lewis has a lot of mileage on his body, but he still should have something left in the tank. In two meetings with the Steelers a season ago, Lewis averaged 72 yards per game and scored in each contest. He may find the going a bit tougher in the Browns' suspect offense, but he's still worth playing as a decent No. 2 option this week.

Cedric Benson, Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers

Matchup	Games	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Benson	15	43	0.4	0.53	3.6	0	0
Chargers vs. Pos.	16	81	0.81	3.56	26	0.06	0.1

The offseason trade of running back Thomas Jones to the New York Jets has left Benson as the Bears' primary back, a role that will almost certainly take some getting used to. Unfortunately for Benson and the Bears there will be no easing into the role against lesser competition as the team must face one of the league's best defenses in the San Diego Chargers. The Bolts have to be chomping at the bit to get the 2007 season started after a disappointing end to last season. Look for Benson to have a long day against the Chargers in Week 1 and play him only as a weak No. 2 or decent No. 3 back.

WIDE RECEIVERS - WEAK PLAYS

Roy Williams, Detroit Lions at Oakland Raiders

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Williams	16	5.12	82	0.44	0.1
Raiders vs. Pos.	16	8.38	111	0.5	0

You can be sure that the Lions will be going to the air early and often against the Raiders in Week 1, but given Oakland's success in stifling opposing receivers it might not be the best mode of attack. Quarterback Jon Kitna threw for a ton of yards last year, but he also made more than his fair share of mistakes. While it may not be an ideal scenario to open the season for Williams, his talent makes him someone you simply can't leave on your bench. Lower your expectations, however, and consider him no better than a No. 2 receiver against the Raiders.

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Jennings	14	3.21	45	0.21	0
Eagles vs. Pos.	16	8.56	123	0.75	0.1

Jennings started out strong in his rookie year, before an ankle injury took away his explosiveness and contributed to a disappointing finish to the 2006 season. Back healthy for this season, Jennings was a non-factor during the preseason and at times sounded less than thrilled with his projected role in the offense. Add to that the emergence of rookie wide receiver James Jones and the outlook for Jennings' 2007 campaign is a bit murky. He draws a tough matchup against the Eagles this Sunday, which means Jennings is no better than your No. 3 wideout or flex position.

TIGHT ENDS - WEAK PLAYS

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns

Matchup	Games	Rec./G	Rec. Yards/G	Rec. TDs/G	Fum Lost/G
Miller	16	2.12	25	0.31	0
Browns vs. Pos.	16	3.25	33	0.25	0

For all the talk surrounding the Steelers' increased emphasis on the passing game, there has been almost no talk of appreciably better numbers from Miller. The third-year tight end has not emerged as a favorite of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and has failed to reach the 40-catch mark in his first two seasons. He doesn't figure to have a big day this Sunday, either, as Pittsburgh faces a Cleveland team that struggles to stop the run, which could equate to a steady does of running back Willie Parker. Even if they go the air it's unlikely would be the target very often. View Miller as only a No. 2 tight end or flex option in Week 1.

PLACE KICKERS - WEAK PLAYS

Jason Elam, Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills

Matchup	Games	FGA/G	FG/G	XPA/G	XP/G	Pts/Game
Elam	16	1.8	1.7	2.1	2.1	7.2
Bills vs. Pos.	16	1.6	1.4	2.1	2.1	6.2

One could invoke the three rules of real estate to explain Elam's placement on this list. Location. Location. Location. Were this game in Denver we'd be full speed ahead for the Broncos kicker, but with the game taking place in Orchard Park, N.Y., where the Bills seemingly always play tough, this could a tightly contested and potentially low-scoring affair. Add to that mix the fact that Elam has struggled throughout his career on turf, and you can see why he is merely a marginal No. 1 kicker this week and ideally one that should stay on your bench.

TEAM DEFENSES - WEAK PLAYS

Green Bay Packers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup	Games	Pts/G	Sacks/G	Ints/G	Fum/G
Packers Def.	16	21.1	2.9	1.4	0.6
Eagles Off.	16	24.9	1.8	0.6	0.9

An emerging defensive unit that demonstrated the ability to get to the quarterback (NFC best 2.9 sacks per game) and force turnovers last season, the Packers draw a familiar foe in Week 1 and one that they have had trouble containing. The Eagles routed the Packers last season, 31-9, though they sacked quarterback Donovan McNabb four times and recovered a pair of fumbles. The fact that this year's game is at Lambeau Field should help, but Green Bay is still a weak start as a fantasy defense this Sunday so check the matchups to see if you have better options available.

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Herija C. Green

Herija is a graduate from California State University - San Marcos. He was a contributing writer and editor with KFFL.com

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