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AFC West Fantasy Outlook

September 6, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Ken Jager
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Running Back Travis Henry, Denver Broncos: After a solid season in Tennessee, Henry moves into Denver's RB-friendly system in 2007. Henry averaged 86.5 rushing yards and 0.5 touchdowns in 14 games with the Titans in 2006. Keep an eye on the sprained left knee that slowed him during the preseason, but for now Henry is back in the lineup and looks primed for a big season in the Broncos' backfield.
Running Back Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs: Johnson averaged 111.8 rushing yards and 1.06 rushing touchdowns per game in 2006, while getting the call 47.5 percent of the plays on offense and 57.2 percent in the red zone. His rushing average (4.3) took a hit with so many attempts (416), but with quarterback Damon Huard now running the offense, don't expect Johnson's production numbers to take much of a hit in 2007.
Running Back LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers: The multi-threat that is Tomlinson had a record-breaking 2006, and he could top that this season. He averaged 155.2 total yards and nearly two touchdowns per game as he claimed both the scoring (28 rush TDs, 3 rec TDs) and rushing (1,815 yds) titles. Definitely a mainstay on any fantasy roster.
Wide Receiver Javon Walker, Denver Broncos: Walker had a strong comeback season in 2006 averaging 4.3 receptions, 67.8 yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game. With the loss of wide receiver Rod Smith for at least six weeks (PUP list), Walker is expected to be the main target for quarterback Jay Cutler and figures to have a big start to 2007.
Tight End Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers: After just missing a second straight 1,000-yard receiving season in 2006, Gates remains a popular target for quarterback Philip Rivers. Gates averaged 4.4 catches for 57.8 yards and 0.6 touchdowns, while being targeted on 13.7 percent of the plays in the red zone. Gates shows no signs of slowing down and is a strong play for any roster.
Tight End Tony Gonzalez, Kansas City Chiefs: Gonzalez, an 11-year veteran, is a model of value and consistency, and 2007 should prove no different. His 4.9 receptions for 60.0 yards and 0.3 touchdowns average in 2006 were close to his numbers the previous year, and is a good target for him this year as he is generally targeted about 10 percent of the time on offense.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Jay Cutler	Denver Broncos	5	200.2	1.8	1.0	3.6	0.0
Damon Huard	Kansas City Chiefs	10	187.8	1.1	0.1	0.9	0.0
Josh McCown	Oakland Raiders	3	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Philip Rivers	San Diego Chargers	16	211.8	1.4	0.6	3.1	0.0

Cutler - With the loss of Smith to the PUP list, Cutler has only one proven receiving target in Walker, and going into Buffalo doesn't help. Buffalo had the seventh best-rated passing defense in 2006 allowing 188.7 yards and just over a touchdown per game. Cutler will have his days this season, but Week 1 doesn’t look to be one of them. He’s a weak No. 1 or solid No. 2 quarterback option this Sunday.

Huard - Huard finally gets the opening day call as faces a weakened Houston secondary that has a knack for giving up big pass plays. But Huard is a career backup with rather unimpressive numbers. Consider Huard a strong play, but as a No. 2 option as the running game should continue to carry the bulk of the offense.

McCown - Despite an inauspicious preseason, McCown is set to get the starting nod in Week 1 against the Detroit Lions. He showed flashes during his time with the Arizona Cardinals, but he’s way too much of an unknown to insert into your lineup.

Rivers - Rivers faces a big test in Week 1 versus the Chicago Bears pass defense, which ranked second in opposing quarterback rating in 2006 (66.5). While he'll have some big games this season, Rivers should be no better than a No. 2 quarterback with a weak play against the Bears.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
LaMont Jordan	Oakland Raiders	10	13 (13.61)	0.6 (7.0)	43.4	0.2	1.0	7.4	0.0
Michael Turner	San Diego Chargers	13	6.4 (8.3)	1.2 (9.4)	38.6	0.2	0.2	3.6	0.0

Jordan - Jordan is currently the featured running back for Oakland, but he's coming off injury from last season and the Raiders offense is a mess. Jordan's saving grace is that he faces the weak Detroit run defense and he's getting a shot to prove himself over the suspended running back Dominic Rhodes. Jordan is a No. 3 option at best in Week 1.

Turner - About the only running back we'd suggest starting against Chicago would be Tomlinson. The problem for Turner is that he plays behind him. About the only way Turner will see significant action is if Tomlinson goes down or in blowouts. Turner should see the bench until further notice.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Brandon Marshall	Denver Broncos	14	2.9 (4.2)	0.4 (4.5)	1.4	22.1	0.1
Eddie Kennison	Kansas City Chiefs	16	6.1 (10.6)	0.8 (9.1)	3.3	53.8	0.3
Samie Parker	Kansas City Chiefs	16	4.1 (7.0)	0.4 (4.6)	2.6	35.1	0.1
Ronald Curry	Oakland Raiders	15	6.1 (9.6)	0.3 (4.7)	4.1	48.5	0.1
Jerry Porter	Oakland Raiders	4	1.0 (0.4)	0.0 (0.0)	0.3	4.8	0.0
Vincent Jackson	San Diego Chargers	16	3.8 (6.0)	0.4 (3.7)	1.7	28.3	0.4

Marshall - With Smith out, Marshall gets the start opposite Javon Walker. Walker is expected to be the main target for the Broncos facing a strong Buffalo defense in Week 1 so view Marshall on as a weak flex option at best and someone who should ideally be benched.

Kennison - Despite being the top receiving target for the Chiefs, he still needs Huard to throw to him. With so many other options on the Kansas City offense (Larry Johnson, Tony Gonzalez), Kennison can only expect to perform at a No. 3 level on your fantasy roster against Houston in Week 1.

Parker - Like Kennison, Parker is a victim of a weak quarterback and being down on the utilization scale in a run-oriented Chiefs offense, even below Kennison. Parker is a weak play and should only see time on your bench in Week 1.

Curry - Curry saw more playing time last season with Porter out, but his value diminishes now that Porter is back in the mix. With a shaky quarterback situation, don’t expect much out of Curry against Detroit in Week 1 and consider him a No. 3 or flex option on your roster.

Porter - For all intents and purposes, Porter missed 2006 for his own reasons. He's now trying to work back into a shaky offensive system with a new coach and a lot of ill feelings. If you have Porter on your roster, play him only as a weak flex option or keep him on your bench until he proves he can be the above average receiver he once was.

Jackson - Jackson is viewed by many as an emerging wide receiver threat. But going against the tough Chicago defense his value drops significantly in Week 1. Don’t bother inserting him into your lineup this week unless it is as a weak flex play.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Daniel Graham	Denver Broncos	12	2.8 (3.2)	0.7 (4.6)	1.8	19.6	0.2
Tony Scheffler	Denver Broncos	13	3.2 (4.4)	0.5 (5.3)	1.4	22.0	0.3
Zach Miller	Oakland Raiders	--	--	--	--	--	--

Graham - Graham, with his new team, faces the familiar Buffalo defense in Week 1. Expect Denver to rely heavily on the running game with Graham blocking more than catching. The Broncos, however, will want to see if his big contract was worth it. If you don't have many options, play Graham as a shaky No. 2, and you just might get lucky.

Scheffler - Scheffler is listed behind Graham on the depth chart and was slowed by a foot injury during the preseason. Don’t expect much out of Scheffler against the tough Buffalo defense in Week 1 and leave him on your bench.

Miller - Miller's first game as a pro comes at home against Detroit. Detroit is typically solid against tight end play, so don't expect too much out of the second-rounder. Leave him on your bench for now, but he may prove to be an emerging target in a confusing Oakland offense.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Jason Elam	Denver Broncos	16	2.1	2.1	1.8	1.7	7.2
Justin Medlock	Kansas City Chiefs	--	--	--	--	--	--
Sebastian Janikowski	Oakland Raiders	16	1.0	1.0	1.6	1.1	4.4
Nate Kaeding	San Diego Chargers	16	3.6	3.6	1.8	1.6	8.5

Elam - Elam has been one of the league's most consistent kickers, averaging right around 120 points per season over the last five years. Going into Buffalo for Week 1, Elam should be considered a low-end No. 1 kicker or bench candidate with a weak play.

Medlock - The rookie Medlock gets his first taste of the NFL against Houston in Week 1. While the Chiefs could run away with this game, don't expect too many field goal chances with the team's strong red zone offense. Plus, it's tough to tell what an unproven kicker will do on the big stage. Sit Medlock for now until he shows what he can do.

Janikowski - Imagine if a good team had a first-round kicker, but Janikowski and the Raiders still have each other. Oakland can't move the ball, so don't expect Janikowski do make any noise at all. Sit him down against Detroit in Week 1, and for many weeks after that.

Kaeding - Kaeding has only missed six field goals in the last two years, not missing an extra point in that time, and scoring an AFC-high 136 points in 2006. Kaeding should have a good day against Chicago in Week 1 and should be a strong play on any roster.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Denver Broncos	16	17.9	1.1	2.3	0.8	0.1
Kansas City Chiefs	16	18.9	0.9	2.0	0.9	0.1
Oakland Raiders	16	19.9	1.1	2.1	0.3	0.3
San Diego Chargers	16	18.3	1.0	3.8	0.8	0.2

Broncos - The Denver defense faces a young Buffalo offense in Week 1 at Buffalo. While the Broncos shouldn't have too much trouble containing fourth-year quarterback J.P. Losman, first-round running back Marshawn Lynch could be a different story. Denver is traditionally mediocre at best against the run and Lynch will want to prove himself. Keep Denver as a skeptical No. 1 play, but examine your other options first.

Chiefs - Kansas City goes into Houston for their Week 1 test and should come away with a win. But that doesn't mean they won't give up any points to the Texans' new-look offense. With their aging corners, quarterback Matt Schaub could have a decent first game as a starter. Keep the Chiefs in the fold as a weak No. 1 option at best.

Raiders - One thing the Raiders can rely one is the strength of their defense. Going up against the often sloppy Detroit offense at home in Week 1 doesn't hurt either, as they should keep be able to force some turnovers. While the game itself isn’t expected to be pretty, play the Raiders as a strong No. 1 defense on your team.

Chargers - The Chargers host the bipolar Bears offense in Week 1. The maturing Chargers defense, led by linebacker Shawne Merriman, should pose a problem to most teams this season. And San Diego has a chip on their shoulder after being knocked out of the playoffs in their first game last season, so look for them to come out fired up and play the Chargers as a solid No. 1 option.