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NFC North Fantasy Outlook

September 6, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Herija C. Green
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Wide Receiver Roy Williams, Detroit Lions: Coming off a breakthrough season in 2006, Williams has become an every week starter for fantasy owners. He finished in the NFL's top 10 among receivers in yards per game (81.9 - fourth) and targets per game (9.12 - 10th), which means he is getting the job done week in and week out. He has a tough matchup out of the gates this year, but keep him active against the Oakland Raiders.
Wide Receiver Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers: Only St. Louis Rams wide receiver Torry Holt was targeted more times in 2006 among NFL receivers than Driver (foot), who is the only player on Green Bay's offense that quarterback Brett Favre trusts implicitly. Often overlooked when it comes to elite fantasy wideouts, Driver averaged 5.75 receptions for 80.9 yards and 0.50 touchdowns per game last season so his inclusion on this list is warranted. Driver sustained a foot injury in the preseason and will likely not be 100 percent in the game, but it's hard to sit him.
Chicago Bears Defensive/Special Teams: One of only a handful of defenses in the NFL that can be started regardless of matchup, the Bears defense puts pressure on the quarterback, forces turnovers and features the game's most dangerous return man. They probably cost you a mid-round draft pick to acquire them so make sure they're in your lineup every week.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Rex Grossman	Chicago Bears	16	199.6	1.44	1.25	0.1	0.00
Jon Kitna	Dallas Cowboys	16	263.0	1.31	1.38	9.8	0.12
Brett Favre	Green Bay Packers	16	242.8	1.12	1.12	1.8	0.06
Tarvaris Jackson	Minnesota Vikings	4	118.8	0.50	1.00	19.2	0.25

Grossman - Following an up-and-down season for the Bears in 2006, all eyes will be on Grossman to see if he can play good enough football to lead Chicago back to the Super Bowl this season. Fantasy owners are watching as well and waiting for Grossman to perform to the point where they feel safe inserting him into their lineups. That might not be the case this week, as Chicago faces the dangerous San Diego Chargers defense. Keep Grossman benched with a weak play against their imposing pass rush.

Kitna - A lot of people are high on Kitna for the 2007 campaign, expecting him to improve on what was a strong statistical showing last year. He certainly plays in the right type of offense to post big numbers, but he draws an Oakland Raiders defense that allowed a league low 2,612 passing yards last season. Ideally you'll want to leave Kitna on the bench in Week 1 with a weak play and look forward to better times ahead.

Favre - Given the struggles of Green Bay's running game during the preseason, it'll be interesting to see how often Favre and the Packers go to the air in Week 1, especially against an aggressive blitzing team like the Philadelphia Eagles. Favre has traditionally struggled against Philadelphia, and his prospects for a big game this Sunday aren't great. Make Favre the third of three NFC North quarterbacks to find the bench for the season opener.

Jackson - If there was a "Do Not Start List" as part of this article, you'd likely be finding Jackson as a semi-permanent resident. The second-year quarterback has little to work with in the receiving game and didn't show anything during his four games last season to generate much excitement. Jackson makes it a clean sweep for NFC North quarterbacks and the bench, only this one should stay there until further notice.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Cedric Benson	Chicago Bears	15	10.13 (15.6)	1.53 (16.7)	43.1	0.40	0.53	3.6	0.00
Tatum Bell	Detroit Lions	13	20.31 (27.5)	1.92 (18.8)	78.8	0.15	1.85	8.8	0.00
Kevin Jones	Detroit Lions	12	21.92 (26.6)	4.00 (36.6)	57.4	0.50	5.08	43.3	0.17
Brandon Jackson	Green Bay Packers	0	0.00 (0.0)	0.00 (0.0)	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00
Vernand Morency	Green Bay Packers	14	7.50 (12.8)	0.86 (11.1)	31.0	0.14	1.21	8.4	0.00
Chester Taylor	Minnesota Vikings	15	21.40 (33.8)	2.87 (34.4)	80.9	0.40	2.80	19.2	0.00
Adrian Peterson	Minnesota Vikings	0	0.00 (0.0)	0.00 (0.0)	0.0	0.00	0.00	0.0	0.00

Benson - The Bears dealt running back Thomas Jones to the New York Jets during the offseason to open up the starting job for Benson, who while showing flashes last season, has yet to prove he can carry the load on a weekly basis. He gets a trial by fire against the Chargers, whose 81.4 yards rushing allowed per game last season was the fifth-best total in the NFL. Benson makes a weak No. 2 or strong No. 3 running back this week with a weak play.

Bell - Acquired from the Denver Broncos this past offseason, Bell will be trying to succeed outside Denver's running system in 2007, a situation that many others have failed in. In the long run Bell figures to share time with Kevin Jones (foot), but with Jones not expected to see the field in Week 1, Bell should see extended action. Bell and the Raiders are no strangers to each other, as Oakland held Bell to fewer than 4.0 yards per carry in both of their meetings last season. The road figures to be even tougher this week, so slot Bell into your lineup as a decent No. 3 option.

Jones - Jones (foot) is not expected to play in Week 1, and his availability will be determined weekly as he recovers from a serious foot injury. He should not be in your lineup until his health improves.

Jackson - The Packers' second-round pick, Jackson (concussion) had his moments in the preseason, but he suffered a concussion in practice, causing him to miss the team's final preseason game. He's back on the field now and is expected to get the start against the Eagles this Sunday. Philadelphia had its problems containing opposing backs last season (160.1 total yards per game allowed), but we can't recommend Jackson as anything more than a weak No. 3 option this week.

Morency - Morency (knee) did not play in the preseason due to a knee injury and his status for the opener is up in the air. If he plays he could see time on third downs, but there is virtually no way he'll be asked to do much more than that. Monitor his status and keep him reserved for Week 1 regardless.

Taylor - A free-agent signing prior to the start of the 2006 season, Taylor did a nice job in his first campaign with the Vikings. However, the addition of first-round pick Adrian Peterson leaves Taylor's exact workload as a bit of a mystery. Both running backs with likely face eight men in the box with regularity as teams dare Tarvaris Jackson to beat them over the top. He draws a solid Atlanta Falcons defense in Week 1 and should be played as no more than a weak No. 2 or strong No. 3 back.

Peterson - In what looks like a weak year for impact fantasy rookies, Peterson could emerge as the best of the bunch. However, don't expect him to get a ton of carries right away. View him as a decent No. 3 running back in Week 1.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Bernard Berrian	Chicago Bears	15	7.07 (10.2)	0.47 (4.9)	3.40	51.7	0.40
Muhsin Muhammad	Chicago Bears	16	7.62 (11.5)	0.88 (9.7)	3.75	53.9	0.30
Calvin Johnson	Detroit Lions	0	0.00 (0.0)	0.00 (0.0)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Mike Furrey	Detroit Lions	16	8.56 (15.2)	0.94 (12.2)	6.12	67.9	0.38
Greg Jennings	Green Bay Packers	14	7.64 (9.7)	0.79 (7.5)	3.21	45.1	0.21
James Jones	Green Bay Packers	0	0.00 (0.0)	0.00 (0.0)	0.00	0.0	0.00
Troy Williamson	Minnesota Vikings	13	5.85 (7.3)	0.08 (0.8)	2.85	35.0	0.00

Berrian - Chicago's top vertical threat, Berrian could get loose against a defense as aggressive as San Diego's in Week 1. He has the speed to get past their secondary if the Bears' line can give Grossman the time. Berrian is frequently an all-or-nothing type of receiver, but this Sunday you can insert him into your lineup as a weak No. 2 or solid No. 3 receiver.

Muhammad - Much more a possession receiver than the explosive Berrian, Muhammad could find the going a little tougher if he's asked to go across the middle and make catches among the Chargers' punishing linebackers. Muhammad ranks no better than a weak No. 3 of flex option for Week 1.

Johnson - The top rookie receiver in this year's draft, Johnson gets his first taste of regular season NFL action this Sunday against the Raiders, a team that allowed fewer receptions and yards to opposing wideouts than every NFL team except the Indianapolis Colts. Welcome to the NFL Mr. Johnson... Play him only as a weak flex option and bench him if at all possible.

Furrey - Furrey came out of nowhere to become one of the league's better possession receivers, developing excellent chemistry on the field with Kitna. This year, though, there is another talented receiver who might get the football. Against a tough defense, Furrey should be played only as a low-end No. 3 or flex option with a weak play against Oakland.

Jennings - An impact player as a rookie before a nagging ankle injury robbed him of his explosiveness, Jennings (hamstring) was also a non-factor in the preseason. Nonetheless, Jennings should see opportunities as teams continue to key on Driver. Be wary, though, because Jennings was limited in practice with a hamstring injury, so he may not be at full strength. The Packers draw a hardened Eagles secondary in Week 1, so view Jennings as a weak No. 3 or flex play this Sunday, and check back for his status.

Jones - This season's darling of training camp, Jones has good size and showed he can come down with the ball during the preseason (an NFL-high 21 receptions). He's set to serve as Green Bay's No. 3 receiver this week and is best left on your bench for the time being. He could be a sneaky play only if one of the other Packers' starters were to sit.

Williamson - Somebody has to catch footballs in Minnesota, and the team would like to see the seventh overall pick from 2005 emerge as the type of explosive player they thought he would be coming out of college. However, too many questions surround the Minnesota offense and their passing game in particular. Bench him in Week 1.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Desmond Clark	Chicago Bears	15	5.2 (7.8)	0.7 (8.3)	3.0	41.7	0.4
Greg Olsen	Chicago Bears	0	0.0 (0)	0.0 (0)	0.0	0.0	0.0
Dan Campbell	Detroit Lions	15	2.1 (3.4)	0.5 (5.3)	1.4	20.5	0.3
Donald Lee	Green Bay Packers	15	1.1 (1.9)	0.1 (2.0)	0.7	10.0	0.0
Bubba Franks	Green Bay Packers	15	3.5 (4.8)	0.4 (4.8)	1.7	15.5	0.0
Visanthe Shiancoe	Minnesota Vikings	16	0.9 (1.4)	0.1 (0.8)	0.8	5.1	0.0

Clark - Easily the division's most productive tight end a season ago, Clark could see some of his targets go to first-round pick Greg Olsen this year. Still, facing a San Diego team whose linebackers do a much better job blitzing and containing the run than they do in coverage (league high 52.8 yards per game allowed to opposing tight ends in 2006), Clark can be played as a decent No. 1 or strong No. 2 tight end Sunday.

Olsen - With a solid player like Clark already in place, the Bears can ease Olsen (ankle) into the fray. He's a definite bench candidate for Week 1, but he's worth keeping an eye on. This week he is likely a game-time decision because of an ankle injury that has limited him at practice.

Campbell - A virtual non-factor in the Lions' offensive attack, Campbell (elbow) is struggling with an injury and primarily serves as a blocker even when healthy. He has minimal value and should be a weak No. 2 or flex if he suits up in Week 1.

Lee - A poor 2006 showing from incumbent tight end Bubba Franks earned Lee a shot at the starting job, and he did nothing during the preseason to lose it. He's an able blocker and has shown the ability to get lose in the seams, but he's not a viable fantasy option at this time. Bench him.

Franks - Once a red zone favorite of Favre, Franks became a forgotten man in the offense last year, and he is beginning this season as a backup. His name may still resonate with some fantasy owners, but at this time Franks has no fantasy value at all.

Shiancoe - The former backup to New York Giants tight end Jeremy Shockey is set to take over as Minnesota's pass-catching tight end for 2007, and it'll be interesting to see what he can do in that role. The Vikings utilized former tight end Jermaine Wiggins fairly heavily during his tenure with the club, so it's not unreasonable to think Shiancoe could cull some value from that offense. For now, though, he's strictly bench material.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Robbie Gould	Chicago Bears	16	2.9	2.9	2.3	2.0	8.9
Jason Hanson	Detroit Lions	16	1.9	1.9	2.1	1.8	7.3
Mason Crosby	Green Bay Packers	0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Ryan Longwell	Minnesota Vikings	16	1.8	1.7	1.6	1.3	5.6

Gould - Gould emerged as an upper-echelon fantasy kicker last season and is definitely one you can leave in your lineup most weeks. That is certainly the case in Week 1, as Gould makes a solid No. 1 kicker against a defense that doesn't allow many touchdowns most weeks.

Hanson - A consistent performer in the Motor City for over a decade, Hanson is not a flashy fantasy kicker, but he usually gets the job done. Against a tough Oakland defense in Week 1, though, he should remain on your bench.

Crosby - The sixth-round pick beat out incumbent place kicker Dave Rayner for the job in Green Bay. With some lingering doubts about Green Bay's offensive potency, he should be on your fantasy pine this Sunday.

Longwell - The 2006 season was not a good one for Longwell, and his prospects for 2007 don't look that great, either, kicking behind one of the league's most suspect offenses. Kicking in a dome is a plus in the later months, but for now he shouldn't be in your lineup.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Detroit Lions	16	23.4	0.8	1.8	1.1	0.1
Green Bay Packers	16	21.4	1.4	2.9	0.6	0.3
Minnesota Vikings	16	17.3	1.3	1.8	0.9	0.2

Lions - The very definition of a "one-week play" is the Detroit defense this week, as they face an Oakland offense that averaged fewer than 10 points per game in 2006. Granted there have been some changes offensively, but until Oakland proves they can put up points and protect the ball, they may find themselves on the wrong end of a lot of one-week plays. Detroit is still not a great option, but they are a low-end No. 1 and a strong play.

Packers - An emerging defense, Green Bay proved last year they could get to the quarterback. As the overall talent level of the defense continues to improve, the Packers could become a viable weekly start in fantasy. They have a tough draw against the Eagles in Week 1, but they could still be played as a weak No. 1 defense, albeit with a weak play.

Vikings - The NFL's most ferocious run defense sets its sights on the Falcons in Week 1 with a familiar foe behind center in former Lions and current Falcons quarterback Joey Harrington. It looks like a good matchup for the Vikings this Sunday, so start them as a solid No. 1 defensive team.