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NFC South Fantasy Outlook

September 6, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Michael Egnak
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Do Not Bench List - All Positions

Quarterback Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: Brees averaged 276.1 passing yards per game in 2006. He also threw an average of 1.6 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions per game. Brees, already a must-start in all fantasy leagues, will open the season against the Indianapolis Colts in the RCA Dome.
Wide Receiver Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers: Smith averaged 5.9 receptions for 83.3 receiving yards and 0.6 touchdowns in 2006. He's still a top receiver in the NFL and is a must-start in all fantasy leagues.

Quarterbacks

Player	Team	Gm	Pass Yds/G	Pass TD/G	INT/G	Rush Yards/G	Rush TD/G
Joey Harrington	Atlanta Falcons	11	203.3	1.1	1.4	2.2	0.0
Jake Delhomme	Carolina Panthers	13	215.8	1.3	0.9	0.9	0.0
Jeff Garcia	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	163.6	1.3	0.3	10.9	0.0

Harrington - With Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick suspended, Harrington will start for his third different team in three seasons. His first true test as the starter for Atlanta will come against the Minnesota Vikings Week 1. The Vikings' defense was more known for their ability to restrict rushing yards, but they have taken steps this offseason to improve against passing attacks. Harrington should stay benched for Week 1.

Delhomme - In some aspects of his season, last season was one to forget for Delhomme. He averaged just 6.5 yards per passing attempt, a career low for him. His passer rating was just 82.6, which was the second-worst of his career. However, other parts of his season were on par for any other year in his career. His 61 percent completion percentage was a career high. He threw just 11 interceptions to 17 touchdowns, and he cut down on the amount of times he fumbled the ball. At 32 years old, and with quarterback David Carr behind him on the depth chart, Delhomme has much more incentive to perform well in 2007. The addition of Carr this offseason could provide that spark that Delhomme needs to perform at the top of his game, or else he could find himself watching games from the sidelines at this point in the season. He'll face the St. Louis Rams in St. Louis to open the year. Chances are you drafted a better option to start, forcing Delhomme to your fantasy team's bench.

Garcia - After Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb went down for the year, Garcia took over and looked more like the Garcia from 2001 than from 2004 or 2005. He threw for 10 touchdowns with just two interceptions in six games started and eight games total. He averaged seven yards per passing attempt and completed 61.7 percent of his passes, his highest completion percentage since 2002. Now the 37-year-old quarterback will start for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his fifth team in five years. He'll start the 2007 regular season in Seattle against the Seattle Seahawks. He should be benched for the week.

Running Backs

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rush Yds/G	Rush TD/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Warrick Dunn	Atlanta Falcons	16	18.3 (30.7)	1.8 (27.7)	71.2	0.3	1.4	10.6	0.1
Jerious Norwood	Atlanta Falcons	14	8.4 (11.4)	1.1 (12.3)	45.2	0.1	0.9	7.3	0.0
DeShaun Foster	Carolina Panthers	14	17.9 (27.3)	1.4 (25.9)	64.1	0.2	2.3	11.4	0.0
DeAngelo Williams	Carolina Panthers	13	12.1 (15.7)	1.2 (17.3)	38.5	0.1	2.5	24.1	0.1
Reggie Bush	New Orleans Saints	16	17.3 (25.8)	2.4 (25.4)	35.2	0.4	5.5	46.4	0.1
Deuce McAllister	New Orleans Saints	15	18.8 (26.2)	3.4 (34.1)	70.7	0.7	2.0	13.2	0.0
Cadillac Williams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	19.2 (27.5)	2.0 (22.5)	57.0	0.7	2.1	14.0	0.0

Dunn - Sidelined by a herniated disc in his back to start training camp, Dunn was able to take part in the team's final preseason game and rushed for eight yards on six carries. However, his longest run was for seven yards, so he gained just one yard on his other five carries. He'll go against the Minnesota Vikings Week 1. The Vikings' defense was tremendous against the run last year, making Dunn a weak option as a No. 3 running back to open the season.

Norwood - Norwood will likely see more time in 2007 than he did in 2006. However, he should still be benched considering he faces a tough run defense and he is still a backup.

Foster - Foster will start off against the St. Louis Rams to open the season. He will split carries with running back DeAngelo Williams, but Foster is still considered the starter. He is also likely to receive goal line carries for the Panthers, giving him added value over Williams. Foster is a strong play against the Rams, and worth using as a No. 2 running back for your fantasy team.

Williams - Williams remains behind running back DeShaun Foster on the team's depth chart. Even though he is still a backup, Williams is a strong play Week 1 against the St. Louis Rams. For leagues that make you start three running backs, Williams is worth throwing in the lineup as your No. 3 option.

Bush - Even though Bush is a backup running back, he does so much for the team's offense that he is worth using nearly every week. Bush gets the majority of receptions out of the team's backfield. Going against the Indianapolis Colts Week 1, there's a good chance the season opener could be a high-scoring affair with both teams throwing often just to keep up with the other. With this in mind, Bush could find himself the target of numerous passes from quarterback Drew Brees. Bush is a strong play for the season opener Thursday, Sept. 5. He's worth using as a No. 1 running back.

McAllister - While running back Reggie Bush gets the majority of receptions out of the team's backfield, McAllister earns the majority of carries. Just like Bush, McAllister is a strong play worth using as a No. 1 running back against the Indianapolis Colts Week 1.

Williams - Williams' disappointing finish to his 2005 season continued into and throughout the 2006 season. He managed just 3.5 yards per carry and scored only one touchdown during the entire season. He'll open the year against the Seattle Seahawks, and is worth using as a No. 3 running back.

Wide Receivers

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Joe Horn	Atlanta Falcons	10	6.5 (7.9)	0.5 (4.7)	3.7	67.9	0.4
Michael Jenkins	Atlanta Falcons	16	5.1 (8.4)	0.8 (10.0)	2.4	27.2	0.4
Keary Colbert	Carolina Panthers	11	1.1 (1.3)	0.0 (1.1)	0.5	5.1	0.0
Devery Henderson	New Orleans Saints	13	4.1 (5.3)	0.3 (3.3)	2.5	57.3	0.4
Joey Galloway	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	8.3 (14.6)	0.8 (13.6)	3.9	66.1	0.4
Maurice Stovall	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	1.7 (1.5)	0.3 (2.4)	0.8	11.3	0.0

Horn - After two disappointing seasons to end his time with the New Orleans Saints, Horn will try to rejuvenate his career with the Falcons. He'll open the year against the Minnesota Vikings with new quarterback Joey Harrington throwing the ball to him. He's a strong play Week 1, and he is worth considering as a No. 2 wideout for the week.

Jenkins - Jenkins could see more plays in 2007 than he did last year, as he'll have a quarterback that actually throws the ball instead of runs with it this season. Just like teammate wide receiver Joe Horn, Jenkins is a strong play to open the year. However, his value is limited to that of a flex player.

Colbert - Colbert will open the year against the St. Louis Rams. Even though he is the team's No. 2 wide receiver, he is a weak play for the week and should stay benched.

Henderson - Henderson came along well last year. He caught just 10 more passes than he did in 2005, but he earned 402 more receiving yards to finish with 745 yards on the season. He is a weak play against the Indianapolis Colts Week 1, but he is still worth throwing in the lineup as a No. 2 or No. 3 wide receiver option.

Galloway - Galloway was one of the lone bright spots for the team's offense in 2006. He'll have a better quarterback throwing to him in 2007, and he should be able to at least come close to repeating last year's production. He'll start off the 2007 season against the Seattle Seahawks. Galloway is a strong play for the start of this year and should be used as a low-end No. 1 or No. 2 wide receiver.

Stovall - The identity of the team's No. 2 wide receiver has not been officially determined, but the team's first depth chart of training camp showed Stovall as the other starter. Stovall is just entering his second season, so he doesn't have much of a track record in the NFL. He should stay benched regardless if he starts or not Week 1.

Tight Ends

Player	Team	Gm	Util (%)/G	RZ (%) Plays/G	Rec/G	Rec Yards/G	Rec TD/G
Alge Crumpler	Atlanta Falcons	16	6.1 (10.1)	1.1 (15.4)	3.5	48.8	0.5
Jeff King	Carolina Panthers	11	0.4 (0.4)	0.2 (2.2)	0.1	0.1	0.1
Eric Johnson	New Orleans Saints	12	4.2 (5.6)	0.8 (7.0)	2.8	24.3	0.2
Alex Smith	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	3.9 (5.5)	0.4 (4.8)	2.5	17.9	0.2

Crumpler - Crumpler will open the year against the Minnesota Vikings Week 1. The matchup makes him a weak play to open the year, but he is still worth starting for most fantasy teams.

King - King isn't really known for his receiving skills, as you can see in the chart above. He'll start off the season against the St. Louis Rams and should be benched.

Johnson - Johnson got out of San Francisco this offseason, moving to a team that will let him start. He is a talented receiver and capable of putting up big numbers during the course of a season, but his durability is an issue. He'll open the year against the Indianapolis Colts. Johnson is worth using as a No. 2 tight end for the week.

Smith - Smith is a weak play for his Week 1 matchup against the Seattle Seahawks. He does have the benefit of having a better quarterback throwing to him, but he will have to contend with tight end Jerramy Stevens for receptions. Smith is worth using as a low-end No. 2 tight end to start the season.

Place Kickers

Player	Team	Gm	XPA/G	XP/G	FGA/G	FG/G	Kick Pnts/G
Matt Prater	Atlanta Falcons	--	--	--	--	--	--
John Kasay	Carolina Panthers	16	1.7	1.7	1.7	1.5	6.2
Olindo Mare	New Orleans Saints	16	1.4	1.4	2.3	1.6	6.2
Matt Bryant	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.1	4.6

Prater - A surprise starter for the Falcons, Prater has never kicked a field goal in his career. The 22-year-old Central Florida product will open the year against the Minnesota Vikings. He's a weak play for Week 1 and not worth using.

Kasay - Kasay converted 88.9 percent of his field goals in 2006, but he didn't have very many kicking points last year. He finished the season with just 99 points. He'll start off against the St. Louis Rams to open the season. Even though he'll be kicking in the comfort of a dome, Kasay is a weak play and should stay on the bench.

Mare - Traded away from the Miami Dolphins this offseason, Mare will make his new home with the New Orleans Saints. Kicking in a dome more often will give him an advantage on most weeks. Unfortunately, Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts is not one of those weeks. He is a weak play to start the 2007 season and should remain on your fantasy team's bench.

Bryant - Bryant didn't have many opportunities for field goals in 2006, and he missed more often than other place kickers when he was given a chance to score his team three points. He's a weak play against the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle, and should be benched for Week 1.

Defensive Teams

Team	Gm	Off Pnts Allw/G	INT/G	Sacks/G	FR/G	DEF/ST TD/G
Atlanta Falcons	16	19.4	0.8	2.3	0.9	0.2
Carolina Panthers	16	18.7	0.8	2.6	0.4	0.1
New Orleans Saints	16	18.6	0.7	2.4	0.4	0.1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	16	20.6	0.7	1.6	0.6	0.2

Falcons - The Falcons' defense will start off against the Minnesota Vikings and first-round draft pick running back Adrian Peterson. The Falcons should have a decent pass rush with defensive ends John Abraham and rookie Jamaal Anderson flanking the defensive line. Going against second-year quarterback Tarvaris Jackson, the team is worth considering as a No. 1 defense if you don't have a better option available.

Panthers - Usually the Panthers' defense is something you can throw in your fantasy lineup and not have to worry about. However, they'll open this year against the St. Louis Rams. With running back Steven Jackson and the team's strong passing attack, the Panthers are a weak play Week 1 and should be benched.

Saints - There are few bright spots on the team's defense to begin with, but opening up the regular season against one of the best offenses in the NFL completely kills any potential advantages the Saints may have had over other options. Bench the Saints defense for the week.

Buccaneers - Normally one of the strong points for the Buccaneers, the team's defense has made an effort to get younger this offseason. While changing to younger players may not pay off well now, it should be beneficial as the season progresses and they earn extra experience in regular-season games. The Buccaneers should be benched Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks.

Author Bio

Michael Egnak
Michael Egnak is a Hot Off The Wire Analyst at KFFL and has been with the company since 2005. Covering both NFL and MLB, Egnak is also a key contributor to KFFL's fantasy services.