Should You Pick up Justin Upton Now?

August 3, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Nicholas Minnix and Andrew Stewart
Edited by Ryan Dodson

When the Arizona Diamondbacks placed outfielder Carlos Quentin (hamstring) on the 15-day disabled list, they couldn't resist the temptation to call up outfielder Justin Upton from Double-A Mobile.

Background

Upton, one of the top prospects in the minors, was essentially on the fast track to the majors despite the fact that 2007 is his first full year as a professional. That isn't so much because he went to college and has become a seasoned player. At the tender age of 19 (he turns 20 Aug. 25), he, like his older brother, Tampa Bay Devil Rays second baseman B.J. Upton, has all of the tools (but, perhaps, with a higher ceiling). Justin Upton is 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, a toned youngster with 20 pounds on his sibling, who's three years older.

Upton has seemingly limitless potential in the majors. He was the first overall pick of the 2005 First-Year Player Draft. He has been on the watch lists of scouts since the age of 14 and was Baseball America's 2005 High School Player of the Year.

Skills

As mentioned, Upton is a five-tool prospect - and then some. Some have argued that the sometimes overused label doesn't even do the Virginia native justice. He can hit for average and has the capacity to hit for great power, thanks to his outstanding bat speed. He can run with anyone. In addition, he carries himself like a major league player.

He demonstrated his potential in his first pro action at Class A South Bend, where he batted .263 with 12 home runs, 66 RBI, 71 runs scored and 15 swipes in 113 games. In 70 games for Mobile this season, Upton was hitting .309 with 13 home runs, 53 RBI, 48 runs and 10 stolen bases. Upton began the season at Class A Visalia, an advanced Single-A club, where he hit .341 with five homers, 17 RBI, 29 runs and nine steals.

Opponents have caught him stealing a combined 11 times in his 30 attempts this season, but he continued to get the green light. He'll definitely need to learn the nuances of base stealing, a seemingly tougher task in the majors. A few of the catchers in the NL West, including the San Francisco Giants' Bengie Molina (.277 caught-stealing percentage) and the Los Angeles Dodgers' Russell Martin (.326) are excellent at gunning down runners.

Upton demonstrates a lack of discipline at the plate, much like B.J. has. This season, Justin Upton has struck out 79 times in 385 at-bats. He whiffed 96 times in his 438 at-bats at South Bend. It's obvious that is didn't hinder his production at these stops, but will it in the big leagues? It hasn't yet for B.J. Upton, who's batting .330 with 14 bombs, 46 RBI, 49 runs, 13 stolen bases and 85 strikeouts in 273 at-bats.

His defense has improved a great deal, while his arm is all that and then some for center field, his likely future position. He has made great strides on defense, so where he plays shouldn't be an issue like it has been for his brother, B.J. However, scouts believe that Justin doesn't always demonstrate the willingness to play the position, and some in the organization don't appreciate the attitude that he brings to the diamond and the clubhouse.

Fantasy Outlook

Upton is worth picking up in deep leagues right away because of his potential, and fantasy owners in need of a potential impact player in shallow leagues should consider him as well. If you have a player wasting roster space on your team, take a shot. Owners in dynasty leagues and full-retention keeper leagues should stop reading here and pick up Upton immediately.

What sort of impact Upton can have is not immediately clear, but the potential is too tempting. In his first major league game, he was a defensive replacement in right field; he received an at-bat and fouled out. He's expected to start in right field Friday, Aug. 3.

The Diamondbacks obviously think very highly of Upton, considering his rapid ascent through the minor leagues. The Diamondbacks are right in the heart of a pennant race in the NL West, so if Upton makes an impact right away, expect him to continue getting time. He's at worst a backup outfielder, but he has the ability to be a No. 2 or No. 3 outfielder this year. Arizona has had an influx of youth lately, and for Upton, the future appears to be now.

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Nicholas Minnix

KFFL's baseball editor plays in LABR and Tout Wars and won the FSWA Baseball Industry Insiders League in 2010.

The University of Delaware alum is a regular guest on Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio and Baltimore's WNST AM 1570. Follow him on Twitter.

Andrew Stewart
Andrew Stewart has been a Hot off the Wire Analyst for KFFL since 2007.

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