The State of the Angels Rotation and the Fantasy Ramifications

July 30, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Whit Benson
Edited by Ryan Dodson

The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (first place, American League West) blitzed through the first three months of their schedule, sprinting out to a 50-31 record in a division that most writers and fans awarded to them at the start of the season. With a dynamic offense top to bottom, a proven bullpen and a potentially dominant starting pitching, the Angels were one of the preseason favorites to win the World Series. However, they have stumbled of late, going only 9-11 in the month of July, and several things have contributed to there recent downfall. 

Their offense has certainly been in a funk, averaging only 4.1 runs a game (averaged 5.1 runs/game April-June), and the bullpen hasn't been quite as dominant as usual. The biggest reason for the slide though has been the July output of starters Ervin Santana and the ever-inflatable Bartolo Colon. In six July starts, Santana and Colon combined to go 0-5 with a 13.85 ERA and ungodly 2.67 WHIP. Santana's ineffectiveness left the Angels with no choice but to demote him to Triple-A and replace him with lefty Joe Saunders in the rotation (4-0, 2.89 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 4.6 K/9 IP in six starts). Colon, who battled injuries to his triceps and rotator cuff in the past, could be done for the season due to an MRI revealing damage to his right elbow. As the table below indicates, the disappointing seasons of Santana and Colon are in stark contrast to the consistency the rest of the Angels rotation has demonstrated in 2007.

Table: Angels Rotation

Starter	Innings	Record	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts
John Lackey	137.2	12-6	3.27	1.23	113
Kelvim Escobar	130.0	11-4	2.91	1.18	102
Jered Weaver	95.1	7-5	3.68	1.43	70
Bartolo Colon*	85.0	6-6	6.72	1.67	67
Ervin Santana#	110.0	5-11	6.22	1.62	87

*=likely done for season

#=demoted to Triple-A Salt Lake on July 19  

While Lackey and Escobar have pitched well, they are not without issues. Lackey, unquestionably the leader of the Angels rotation since their World Series title in 2002, owns a 4.18 ERA in July, and has not been his dominant self since reporting shoulder pain in late June. Escobar, who has had stints on the disabled list in the past for injuries to his right shoulder and elbow, is currently pitching with a blister on the middle finger of his pitching hand that has bothered him in previous years. Fantasy owners need not look further than Boston Red Sox pitcher Josh Beckett to see how serious a blister issue can be.

Due to an off day this week, the Angels aren't forced to fill the fifth spot in their rotation until Sunday versus the Detroit Tigers, and options are limited as to who that pitcher will be. Reliever Dustin Moseley started Sunday and gave up four runs in just under five innings. Thus, it seems Santana may have to be leaned upon as he is fresh off an outing on July 24 that saw him give up only two hits over seven innings. Sunday would also be his day to pitch as it is, so the Angels are desperately hoping he can regain the form that saw him win 28 games over 2005-06, even though there seems to be no apparent excuse as to why he lost it.

From a team perspective, the Angels still seemingly outclass the rest of their division, and should start to distance themselves from Seattle, losers of seven in a row. Once they make the playoffs, the lack of depth in their starting rotation and long relief shouldn't be quite as damaging, as they are structured for short-series baseball. From a fantasy perspective, Lackey and Escobar have proven to be durable and valuable commodities this season, and each should be considered a strong No. 2 starter in most formats. Weaver's sophomore slump is a bit of a concern, as his numbers are nowhere near last season's, but is no worse than a No. 3 or No. 4 starter. The Angels lineup (third in MLB in batting average, eighth in runs scored) is finally back at full strength, with outfielders Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. are back in the lineup after missing time due to nagging injuries. As a result, look for more run support for all three pitchers, and in turn, more wins. Fantasy owners should not look to acquire Moseley or Santana because of their enormous struggles this month, but should keep an eye on Joe Saunders to see if the success the former first rounder has had thus far keeps up over his next few starts. If your league playoffs take place during September 11-19, keep in mind that the Angels play the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Devil Rays and Oakland Athletics during that stretch (three of the league's more anemic offenses).

If your fantasy team is in need of starting pitching there are several lightly used arms on the waiver wire that carry more upside than the usual retreads that are out there. Young starters Kason Gabbard (4-0, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 6.4 K/9IP) and Jon Lester (one start, six IP, two runs, six strikeouts) of the Boston Red Sox both have some appeal, and are owned in only 25 percent and 10 percent of leagues polled, respectively. Gabbard, while not blessed with great stuff, has filled in admirably for disabled Red Sox ace Curt Schilling (shoulder) the last few weeks, though Schilling is expected to replace him in the rotation on Aug. 5. If and when that occurs, look to swap out Gabbard for surprise right-hander Buddy Carlyle of the Atlanta Braves (5-3, 4.25 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.1 K/9IP), who is available in a whopping 95 percent of leagues polled. 

Lester has long been a top pitching prospect in Red Sox organization, and with his start earlier this week, has completed a remarkable comeback from the lymphoma that he was diagnosed with last season. He looks to remain in the rotation the rest of the year, and should post solid win, strikeout, and ERA totals the rest of the way, though will walk his share of hitters (43 BB in 81 IP in 2006). If it is a veteran presence you seek, give a second look to Texas Rangers starter Kevin Millwood (yes, that Kevin Millwood). While his numbers overall this season have been abysmal, Millwood has improved drastically over his last eight starts, winning five of them and posting a 3.41 ERA. He is only 32 years old, and now that he is fully recovered from a hamstring injury that plagued him earlier this season, should have plenty of good starts left in him. 

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Whit Benson
Whit has been with KFFL since 2007.

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