Grab KC's Soria While You Can

July 23, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Whit Benson
Edited by Ryan Dodson

When the Kansas City Royals signed right-hander Octavio Dotel to a $5 million, one-year deal this past winter, they saw it as a chance to obtain a bona fide closer at a reasonable price. However, when Dotel was put on the disabled list during spring training with a strained oblique, it enabled the Royals to get a look at what may be their closer of the future. 

Right-hander Joakim Soria (1-3, 10 saves, 2.34 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .196 BAA, 42.1 innings, 51 strikeouts) had been a Mexican League sensation as a starter last year before Royals scouts convinced management to obtain him from the San Diego Padres via the Rule V draft. Soria made his major-league debut for the Royals this season and has overall been lights out as the numbers above would indicate. He possesses a low-to-mid-90s fastball, an excellent changeup with movement, a plus slider and a deceptive delivery that has baffled hitters all year long. 

When thrust into the closer's role during Dotel's absence in April and May, Soria converted 10 of 13 save opportunities before landing on the disabled list in late May with right shoulder inflammation. Upon returning from the DL on June 7, Soria showed no effects from his injury, proceeding to pitch 18 1/3 scoreless innings, before finally having his streak come to an end on July 21. Royals manager Buddy Bell has opted to use Soria as his setup man, while Dotel is healthy and back pitching well in the closer's role (2-1, 10 saves, 3.43 ERA).

However, the embattled Royals find themselves tied for last place in the American League Central. It seems a complete certainty that Dotel, the $2 million or so that's owed to him and his impending free agency status will be dealt to a contender before the July 31 trading deadline (the Los Angeles Dodgers appear to be the front-runners on a long list of suitors). While it makes no sense for the Royals to keep Dotel, being that they are unlikely to re-sign him this winter, Soria becomes more and more attractive every day to fantasy owners everywhere in need of relievers. He has already established he has the stuff and maturity to be the everyday closer, and being that he is a "Rule V guy," the Royals are forced to keep him on their roster the rest of the season or lose him. Soria is owned in 48 percent of leagues polled right now, but look for that number to skyrocket once an inevitable Dotel deal is announced this week.

The Royals situation is one that is not uncommon to the handful of major league teams that consider themselves officially out of the playoff race. Below is a list of other trade deadline situations to keep an eye on. The ironic thing is that the talented closers that could be dealt by these teams will, for the most part, lose their fantasy value upon being traded, as the teams looking to acquire them envision them as eighth-inning guys.

Table: Closers that could get traded

Name	Team	SV	ERA	WHIP	K/9
Octavio Dotel	KC	10	3.43	1.48	11.14
Chad Cordero	WAS	19	2.63	1.29	6.94
Eric Gagne	TEX	14	1.48	0.96	7.71
Kevin Gregg	FLA	20	3.07	1.19	8.73
David Weathers	CIN	19	3.28	1.09	6.75

While the Royals figure to assume their perennial position of trade-deadline sellers over the upcoming week, things are at least looking up for them to some degree. They enjoyed their first winning month in June (15-12) in nearly four years and since June 1 have a higher winning percentage (.558) than the Cleveland Indians (.543), Boston Red Sox (.500) and New York Mets (.444). As a result, look for Soria to get the save opportunities the rest of the year. While it is hard to imagine a 23-year-old rookie from obscurity posting the same gaudy numbers that he has up to this point, reasonable projections over the final two months of the season for Soria would include roughly 10 to 12 saves, an ERA in the 3.50 range, a WHIP of 1.15 and a little less than a strikeout an inning. When Dotel gets traded, Soria will suffice as a run-of-the-mill No. 2 closer on most fantasy teams, or a strong No. 3, as he figures to have a long leash on the closer's role the rest of the season provided he stays healthy.

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Whit Benson
Whit has been with KFFL since 2007.

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