Where has Derrek Lee's Power Gone?

July 13, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By David Wysocki
Edited by Nicholas Minnix

It is not uncommon to experience a power outage amongst the screeching locusts in the midst of a hot Chicago summer. However, the power outage that is of most concern in the Windy City in 2007 is that of Chicago Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee.

Background

Lee, a 2007 All-Star, is in the middle of perhaps the worst power drought of his 11-year career. He sprouted in San Diego with the Padres, crawled through Miami with the Florida Marlins and, in 2004, landed at Wrigley where he experienced his most successful season as a major leaguer.

The 31-year-old sculpted Lee stands 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, and in his last full season, in 2005, he finished third in the NL MVP vote when he managed to hit 46 home runs and post a .335 clip. It was a season about which players dream. In 2006, despite missing most of the season with a wrist injury, he was still able to drive out eight in 50 games. The 2007 version has assumed a somewhat different alias.

Lee has not hit a home run since June 3, or for 118 straight at-bats, and is currently being out-homered by a few fellow Cubs, including third baseman Aramis Ramirez, outfielder Alfonso Soriano and also a less adroit power source, second baseman Mark DeRosa. DeRosa has muscled out just seven home runs.

In 82 games thus far Lee has hit just six homers but has posted a .330 batting average and boasts an OPS of .890. These numbers are not to be overlooked, however, as he entered the second half fifth in the NL in hitting and managed to crack the All-Star roster despite perennially tough competition at his position. He isn't having a bad season. It's just that the only time he now sees Waveland Avenue is driving to work.

Outlook

Rodan, a nickname given to Lee by former manager Dusty Baker, referring to a nemesis of Godzilla, claims nothing has changed in his swing. After reviewing tape, this was reiterated by Cubs hitting coach Gerald Perry as well. Lee also claims he is no longer feeling the pain of the 2006 wrist injury that limited him to just 175 at-bats.

Derrek Lee Statistics - Chicago Cubs (2004-07)

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	BA	OPS
2004	CHC	161	605	90	168	39	32	98	12	.278	.860
2005	CHC	158	594	120	199	50	46	107	15	.335	1.080
2006	CHC	50	175	30	50	9	8	30	8	.286	.842
2007	CHC	82	309	46	102	26	6	42	3	.330	.890

Lee seems baffled by his lack of long-ball production but thinks the homers will come. Many hope he hasn't caught the disease of San Diego Padres outfielder Brian Giles and New York Yankees outfielder Bobby Abreu. Both have experienced similar power failures but at a more advanced age. This doesn't seem to be the case with Lee.

Lee is extremely aware of his power outage, too, and he's displeased with his current home run total. "It's been a different year," Lee said. "I need to be better in the second half. I don't want to sound like I'm disappointed. I feel like I've played OK, but I feel like I can play better."

In a lineup that is almost emaciated along the home run line, Lee's revival would surely help the Cubbies' cause. After a dreadful start, the Cubs have snuck behind the division leading Milwaukee Brewers and found themselves a game over .500 and just 4.5 games back at the break.

Lee's case for a distinctly different second half could be slowed by a pending five-game suspension for his bench-clearing, NBA-esque "whiff match" with San Diego Padres starter Chris Young in mid-June. His appeal will be heard immediately following the break as he seeks to lower the suspension to three games.

Fantasy Recommendation

Despite Lee's attractive batting average, he could be on the market for less than what he's worth. Lee's owners drafted him figuring he'd have power to go with his average and the usually formidable base running. Unless they are getting sufficient power throughout their lineup, he could be a very available player in many leagues. Frustration on a player like Lee drafted in the early rounds surely set in a month and a half ago. But if you still own him, hold on tight, because he will likely hit more than six homers down the stretch. Don't give in to the frustration.

Fantasy owners can reasonably expect Lee to reach the 20s in home runs at season's end. It's hard to imagine Lee hitting more than 15 or 20 homers in the second half due to a drop in home runs throughout the majors, but his production should pick up as the Cubs look to be gaining some steam. He's simply too good of a player to trade for garbage. Even in the scenario his production doesn't pick up, you may still have a .320-.335 hitter in your lineup. He's well worth the risk, especially since he's healthy.

Remember, though, that if Lee consciously tries to improve in the power department, his average may take a bit of a dive. Swinging for the fences sometimes leads to more home runs, but it also leads to an overaggressive approach and strikeouts. Lee is a somewhat disciplined hitter (39 walks versus 63 strikeouts), but his whiff rate could increase, leading to a possible drop in average. Overall, fantasy owners would likely take it if it meant a dramatic enough increase in home runs and RBI.

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David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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