Brad Penny, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

June 28, 2007 @ 16:00:00

By Scott Ehrlich
Edited by Ryan Dodson

Just before the 1999 trade deadline, the Florida Marlins sent their closer, right-hander Matt Mantei, to the desert for a package of prospects, including one they thought would be a future ace. It would take nearly a decade and a change of coasts for Brad Penny, the massive righty from Warren Spahn's hometown of Broken Arrow, Okla., to finally become that pitcher the Marlins envisioned.

Penny, now in his third full season with the Dodgers, after arriving in the controversial 2004 deal that sent popular catcher Paul Lo Duca to the Sunshine State, has been fantastic so far this year, leading the NL in ERA and wins. He has 10 wins, a sub 3.00 ERA and looks like a true All-Star pitching in one of baseball's best pitchers' parks.

However, Penny did the same thing last season. He started out electrifying, started the All-Star Game and went into the tank in the second half. He went 6-7 with a horrendous 6.25 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. And here we are, déjà vu all over again.

Table: Brad Penny, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers - Career Stats

Year	Team	W-L	IP	H	BB	K	ERA	WHIP
2000	FLA	8-7	119.2	120	60	80	4.81	1.50
2001	FLA	10-10	205	183	54	154	3.69	1.16
2002	FLA	8-7	129.1	148	50	93	4.66	1.53
2003	FLA	14-10	196.1	195	56	138	4.13	1.28
2004	FLA-LAD	9-10	143	130	45	111	3.15	1.22
2005	LAD	7-9	175.1	185	41	122	3.90	1.29
2006	LAD	16-7	189	206	54	148	4.33	1.38
2007	LAD	10-1	105.2	91	28	70	2.04	1.13

Well, if Penny repeats his second half swoon of last year, then shame on us because we are fully endorsing Penny for the rest of this season. Penny is talented. Again, this is the Brad Penny that teams have been waiting for since he came into the league, seemingly ages ago. Yet Penny is just 29 years old. He has a massive 6-foot-4, 260-pound frame. He's now in his third straight healthy season for a contending team. And, unlike last season, despite his hauntingly similar first half numbers, I have to imagine Penny has learned quite a bit about pacing himself from his freefall of a season ago.

Penny is getting nearly 60 percent of his outs via groundout this season as opposed to just over 50 percent last season. In the spacious California stadiums, this means very little. However, for those road starts in Colorado and Arizona, this means quite a bit. More ground balls means less home runs in those hitters havens. Considering Penny's ERA was over a half run higher last year on the road than at home, and is about double his home ERA this year, keeping the ball on the ground should keep it in the park and limit those awful outings that plagued him in the second half last season.

Another reason to like Penny is the second half schedule. The Dodgers have only 13 games after the break at the stadiums of the five highest scoring National League Teams, with seven of those coming at Colorado. No second half games against the battering Brewers and none against the surprising Marlins. Just six combined in the tough stadiums of Philadelphia and Cincinnati. That means a lot of starts in great places to pitch - San Diego, San Francisco, and, oh yes, Los Angeles, where the Dodgers are tied with Pittsburgh for second least home games played to this point with 36 (Houston has played one less). Penny has dominated in Chavez Ravine with just a 1.38 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP there and should be good for at least 10 starts there in the second half.

Finally, we like Penny because we think the Dodgers defense is better than last year. With Garciaparra now playing third, that puts the very defensively capable James Loney at first base. Add in the talented Rafael Furcal at shortstop and the capable Jeff Kent at second and the infield defense (along with catcher Russell Martin) is quite good. With Penny's increased reliance on ground balls, this takes on an even greater importance. Add in Juan Pierre's speed in center field, and this good Dodgers defense should help keep Penny's numbers going strong.

So for all these reasons, Penny is a keeper for the second half. Expect him to top his career high of 16 wins from last season and expect a new career best ERA, with his prior best coming in 2004 at 3.15. If someone on your league is having flashbacks to last season with him, see if you can grab him for "pennies on the dollar".

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Scott Ehrlich

Scott Ehrlich has been involved with sports for the last four years. He spent parts of three seasons working with various minor league baseball teams and internet sports sites. In 2004 he hosted his own sports talk show on 790AM in South Florida, featuring guests from all four major sports. Scott currently resides in Ft. Lauderdale, FL but will be attending law school at the University of Florida in August, where he hopes to one day be the guy responsible for holding your favorite player out of training camp.

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