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Z - Impact Analysis

Jason Schmidt, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

June 21, 2007 @ 16:00:00

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By David Wysocki
Edited by Ryan Dodson

The "Schmidt factor" in 2007 seems like a fairy tale dream for a Los Angeles Dodgers team seeking an ace to launch them past division rivals and back into the playoffs. On Monday, the Dodgers placed their marquee free-agent chip in last year's offseason, starter Jason Schmidt, on the DL for the second time in a month, proving that big free-agent spending doesn't guarantee results.

He underwent exploratory surgery on his injury-riddled right shoulder in an attempt to see what caused his velocity to drop into the mid-80s. The damage was more extensive than anyone thought. Schmidt had surgery to repair an inflamed bursa, a torn labrum and a frayed biceps tendon. Schmidt is done for the season.

Schmidt, 34, was 71-36 pitching for the rival San Francisco Giants from 2002-2006 and threw into the mid 90s. This season Schmidt has been a shadow of himself touching 88 mph and seeing his ERA skyrocket to 6.31. He has a 1-4 record to go along with it.

After experiencing discomfort in his shoulder for a few starts and minimizing the seriousness of the injury, Schmidt landed on the DL the first time this season after getting roughed up by the front-running San Diego Padres on April 14 where he allowed six runs (five earned) and seven hits in just two innings of work. His return from the DL came on June 5 against the same Padres club, where he showed flashes of his former self, and gave hope back to the his ball club when he tossed six shutout innings, allowing just one hit.

The success was short lived.

His next two starts may end up being the last of his 2007 campaign. Against the Toronto Blue Jays and Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim he proceeded to give up nine runs in 8 2/3 innings pitched. The team is hoping he can be ready for spring training in 2008.

Replacing Schmidt on the roster is utility player Marlon Anderson. His replacement in the rotation hasn't been immediately announced, but the competition seems to be between relievers Chad Billingsley, Mark Hendrickson, and Brett Tomko. Minor league starter D.J. Houlton, who is 5-2 with a 3.72 ERA at Triple-A Las Vegas, is also an option.

The younger and highly touted Billingsley is believed to be the favorite. The former first-round pick in 2003 has thrown well in 125 innings of major league ball going 11-4 with a 3.60 ERA over two seasons. He started 16 games in 2006 and went 7-4, but has worked out of the pen in 2007 because of the free agent arrivals of Schmidt and starter Randy Wolf. He has struck out 99 compared to 71 walks, which is pretty high, but he is improving and is just 22 years old.

Table: Chad Billingsley's performance 2006-2007

Year
W
L
IP
GS
ERA
WHIP
SO
BB
2006
7
4
90
16
3.80
1.67
59
58
2007
4
0
35
0
3.09
1.20
40
13

While Billingsley is the favorite, Tomko and Hendrickson are veteran starters that will surely be ready for the call if Billingsley slips up. The Dodgers will go with what they believe will help them win now as they are right behind the rival Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks in the NL West race.

Schmidt is just one of the team's disappointments in 2007. Outfielder Juan Pierre, who signed a five-year, $45 million deal this offseason, is hitting just .278 and has a .310 on-base-percentage. Pierre does have 20 steals, however, and had a slow start to last season as well. First baseman Nomar Garciaparra is hitting .279 with just one home run, third baseman Wilson Betemit is hitting a basement low .204, and shortstop Rafael Furcal is hitting just .285 with 1 home run after signing his monster deal prior to 2006.

If you have Schmidt, it's time to cut him loose. Billingsley is a very attractive candidate to replace him. If he holds on to that starting spot, he should have some very decent fantasy numbers. Despite the struggles of some of the Dodgers offense, the team sits just a game and a half back of the Padres in the best division in the National League. He'll have some chances at wins and he'll get you a decent, not spectacular, amount of strikeouts.

Toronto Blue Jays starter Shaun Marcum is also a great candidate to pick up. He is 4-1 with a 2.38 ERA and 39 strikeouts in 41 2/3 innings as a starter. He is available in 85 percent of leagues polled.



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Author Bio

David Wysocki

David has been a KFFL writer since 2005. He is a San Diego native and a History and Geography student at California State University-Chico. He has a writing background and has appeared in, and helped produce, various local newsletters and magazines on sports and music. He also pitched for the No. 2 nationally ranked Rancho Buena Vista Longhorns his senior year of high school in 2002.

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